Damien Kayat previews Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko and Danil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semi-finals of the WTA/ATP Italian Open, on the 19th and 20th of May 2023.
2023 WTA/ATP Tour
WTA 1000/ATP 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Semi-finals – 19th-20th May
WTA 1000 – 19th May
Elena Rybakina 4/7 | Jelena Ostapenko 6/5
Elena Rybakina enters her first WTA 1000 clay-court semi-final, derailing the herculean Rome winning streak of Iga Swiatek in the process. The Kazakh was being thoroughly beaten by the Pole on Thursday, losing the first set and trailing 3-1 in the 2nd.
But a thigh issue saw Swiatek leave the court and she couldn’t regain her composure, ultimately dropping the 2nd set and retiring at 2-2 in the 3rd. I wonder just how serious that injury is. There’s a chance that Swiatek is simply taking a cautionary approach ahead of her French Open defence.
She probably also figured that another defeat to Rybakina would severely dent her confidence ahead of Roland Garros. Rybakina has only dropped one set this week and seems to have adapted her power-based game to these clay-courts.
The reigning Wimbledon champion is fast becoming one of the most bankable big-match players in the game. She reached another Grand Slam final in Melbourne this year and reached back-to-back finals in the ‘Sunshine Double’ (winning in Indian Wells).
She struggled in the early part of the clay-court swing- her serve obviously isn’t going to buy as many cheap points out there. But she seems to have reined in some of those errors and is focusing more on precision. Victory in this tournament will go a long way to establishing her as a true all-court contender.
You just have to love Latvian Jelena Ostapenko. She has an infectious personality and truly seems to play for the love of the game. And you never know what you are going to get from the 2017 French Open champion.
She is often at her most dangerous when the results have been going against her. Last year she brought a semblance of consistency to her risk-reward game with three finals (winning the WTA 500 event in Dubai).
But 2023 has seen her struggle to string together more than two consecutive wins. Having said that, the Latvian did reach the quarterfinal of the Aussie Open. She often finds a way to impose herself on big events through her do-or-die hitting approach. And that has certainly been the case in Rome.
She just came through a grueling three-set encounter with Badosa, winning five of the last six games to secure her maiden Rome semi-final. She hasn’t reached a clay-court final since that fairytale run to the 2017 Roland Garros final. Could she rectify that record in Rome?
Verdict: Ostapenko to win in three at 7/2
The Latvian actually leads the head-to-head with Rybakina 2-1. But Rybakina emphatically won their last encounter at this year’s Aussie Open. This is going to be an intriguing match-up between Rybakina’s precision-based power and Ostapenko’s more erratic approach.
I just feel that the Latvian is playing with a tremendous amount of confidence at the present moment. Her shaky serve has stood up to scrutiny and she has played brilliantly in clutch moments. I’m going for the three-set upset here.
ATP 1000 – 20th May
Danil Medvedev 23/20 | Stefanos Tsitsipas 8/13
It’s hard to believe that Danil Medvedev hadn’t won a match in three previous trips here. He has looked commanding this year, advancing to the final-four courtesy for a routine demolition of qualifier Yannick Hanfmann.
That victory improved his outstanding 2023 record to 38-5. Medvedev has to be one of the players licking their lips at the news of Rafa Nadal’s French Open withdraw. Sure, he is still yet to claim that first clay-court title (he reached the final of the 2019 Barcelona Open).
But his current form looks good enough to win anywhere. He recently reached five consecutive finals (winning four of them). He is really leaning into his renowned returning abilities in Rome, standing miles behind the baseline and neutralizing first-serves. He will take some beating despite his perceived clay-court flaws.
Stefanos Tsitsipas looked just as impressive as Medvedev in his quarterfinal clash, soundly beating streetfighter Borna Coric 6-3, 6-4. His serve has been ticking over brilliantly all week and I loved the way he used his drop-shot to destabilize arch-baseliner Coric.
Tsitsipas has proven his clay-court worth on numerous occasions (reaching four ATP 1000 clay-court finals and a French Open final). And his victory over Coric took his 2023 clay-court record to 13-3. He has now been a semi-finalist in three of the last five iterations of this event.
He will be looking to make his 2nd consecutive final after his run last year (he would go on to lose to Novak Djokovic). I feel like this match could prove hugely improvement for Tsitsipas as he looks to build confidence ahead of the French Open.
Verdict: Tsitsipas to win in straight sets – 31/20
Medvedev leads this compelling rivalry 7-4. But that certainly doesn’t tell the full story of this rivalry. Medvedev won the first five meetings and the Greek seems to have gained the upper hand of late. He won their last two encounters (the last of which being a round-robin meeting in last year’s Nitto ATP Finals).
I fancy the Greek to continue that trend this week. Medvedev is in terrific form but I think his positioning on the baseline will play into Tsitsipas’ hands. I see him bringing out that drop-shot often, pulling Medvedev forward and messing up his rhythm.
