Damein Kayat previews Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Borna Coric and Casper Rudd vs Holger Rune in selected quarter-final and semi-final matches of the Italian Open, on the 18th and 20th of May 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarterfinals and Semi-finals (18th-20th May)
18th May – Quarter-final
Stefanos Tsitsipas 27/100 | Borna Coric 12/5
I don’t think that 24-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas has recovered from the disappointment of that convincing Aussie Open final defeat to Djokovic. He is going to have to up his game if he really wants to catch the attention of Margot Robbie (if you know, you know).
I digress. He has been consistent this year but is yet up a title. But he has looked back to his best in Rome. He is yet to drop a set, breaking local hearts with back-to-back Italian scalps in Sonego and Musetti. He reached the final here last season and won back-to-back Monte-Carlo titles in 2021 and 2022.
He also reached the Roland Garros final in 2021. There is little doubt as to his pedigree (especially on clay). But next up he will have to take down a player who has become a bit of a bogeyman for him: Borna Coric.
Borna Coric has shown tremendous grit to come back from his various injury issues. The 26-year-old Croatian burst onto the scene with a fabulous run to the 2018 Shanghai Masters final.
But injuries and erratic form have really prevented the defensive baseliner from reaching his potential. But he showed at last year’s Cincinnati Masters that he still has what it takes to compete with the very best, becoming the lowest-ranked player ever to win a Masters 1000 event.
But the mercurial Croat had enjoyed a pretty disastrous season prior to these last two Masters 1000 events. He entered the Madrid Open with a record of 2-7 in completed matches. But he has found something in these elite clay-court events, reaching the semi-finals in Madrid and making the final eight here. To be fair, he is yet to face truly elite opposition in Rome.
He saved a match-point against Monterio and just came through another grueling three-setter against giant-killing Marozsan. But he will draw some confidence from his positive head-to-head record against his more fancied opponent.
Verdict: Tsitsipas to win in three at 5/2
Coric actually leads Tsitsiaps 3-1 in their completed matches (Coric was forced to withdraw from their 2018 match here due to injury). Coric produced a remarkable performance to come back from two sets to one down in the 2020 US Open.
And he absolutely schooled Tsitsipas in the Cincinnati final last year. The Greek finally got the better of Coric in a three-set encounter at this year’s United Cup. Tsitsipas looks to dominate with his forehand and I think Coric’s backhand down-the-line has caught him out on occasions.
But I think he will be mindful of that here and will know that he will have a bit more time should Coric nail one down the line. Still, this should be a grueling encounter between two supreme athletes that will possibly go all the way.
20th May – Semi-final
Casper Rudd 13/10 | Holger Rune 8/15
You can expect plenty of brutal baseline rallies in this rematch of last year’s French Open quarterfinal (won by Rudd). The Norwegian has finally started to resemble the player who reached two Grand Slam finals last year.
He enjoyed a frustrating start to the year, going into the European clay-court swing with a 5-6 record for the year. But victory at Estoril was a little reminder of his undoubted clay-court prowess. And he has looked back to his best in Rome, riding that monstrous forehand to his 3rd consecutive Rome semi-final.
His quarterfinal victory over Cerundolo was empathic, giving himself a measure of revenge after two consecutive defeats to the Argentine. Rudd is just starting to click into ominous gear, improving his brilliant overall Rome record to 13-3.
But next up for Rudd is giant-killing Rune, arguably the most in-form clay-court player around (outside of Carlos Alcaraz).
For the first time since 2004, neither Rafa Nadal nor Novak Djokovic will be competing in the Rome final. Let that sink in a bit. And Holger Rune was the man who made this possible, outlasting a physically distressed Novak Djokovic in a tight three-set affair.
With Nadal and Djokovic nursing injury concerns, could we see a significant changing of the guards at this year’s French Open? Danish wunderkind Holger Rune is turning into an absolute beast of a player.
He has a formidable serve and high-octane game, pairing Nadal-like intensity with Federer-like guile. And he hits the ball powerfully off both wings, with Djokovic stating that his double-handed backhand is stronger than that of Alcaraz.
He burst onto the scene with that quarterfinal run at last year’s French Open and would reach four consecutive finals to end the year (culminating in that brilliant Paris Masters triumph over Djokovic).
And he has really kicked into action during the clay-court swing this year, winning his 2nd consecutive Bavarian title and reaching the semi-finals in Madrid. He has played some tough three-set matches and will need to recover quickly to take on the imperious Rudd.
Verdict: Rudd to win in straight sets at 14/5
Rudd leads Rune 4-0 in their head-to-head rivalry. In fact, the set he dropped at last year’s French Open was the only one that Rune has won. Rudd has started to look at his best and should be able to keep Rune pegged back with that mammoth forehand.
