Carlos Alcaraz has proven the naysayers wrong once again, winning all three of his ATP Finals round-robin matches to secure the year-end No.1 spot.
Many- myself included- thought that he may struggle to find his best tennis on these indoor surfaces (he lost to Norrie in Paris on the eve of this event). He had to endure cauldron-like conditions this week, with the Turin faithful doing their best to psyche him out and hand the initiative to local hero Jannik Sinner. But Alcaraz showed plenty of gumption against Taylor Fritz, recovering from a set down to secure a semifinal berth. He then steamrolled Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-1, ensuring that he ends the year ranked No.1 for the 2nd time in his career (the first time coming in 2022).
No Djokovic, no problems
Would we be having this conversation if Djokovic hadn’t withdrawn at the very last minute? Djokovic withdrew after claiming his 101st career title at the inaugural Hellenic Championship, citing a shoulder injury. I think there’s a little more to it than that. The Serb seemed quite peeved off last week, with Italian tennis federation chief Angelo Binaghi stating that Djokovic had confirmed his participation at the ATP Finals. From an outside perspective, Djokovic’s late withdrawal felt like retribution for Binaghi speaking on his behalf. But I digress. In any event, Djokovic’s withdrawal fundamentally altered the makeup of the group, with Lorenzo Musetti replacing indoor titan Djokovic. Alcaraz was always going to have too much for clay-court specialist Musetti and hard-working Alex de Minaur (the Aussie had lost 16 successive matches against top-ten players before his upset win over Fritz).
Diffusing Fritz
Alcaraz’s key match came against big-serving American Taylor Fritz. With Djokovic out of the picture, Fritz looked like the only plausible threat to an Alcaraz round-robin sweep. Fritz eased past Alcaraz in their most recent indoor meeting, trouncing the Spaniard 6-3, 6-2 at the Laver Cup. And Alcaraz struggled to get going against the American, losing the first set against a clearly energized Fritz. But the Spainard wore the American down, coming back to win in three despite barely getting out of 2nd gear. It says something about Alcaraz that his B-game was enough against an inspired, gung-ho Fritz.
Alcaraz turns jeers to tears
Alcaraz sealed the No.1 ranking with a consummate straight-sets win over Djokovic’s replacement Lorenzo Musetti. Alcaraz, who has been vilified by Italian fans all week, will have felt a karmic thrill beating Sinner’s compatriot en route to that No,1 ranking. It was as if he beat two Italians last night, gaining some vengeance for the treatment he has received. In 2022, Alcaraz became the youngest year-end No.1 since the ranking system began in 1973. With last night’s victory, he became one of only two active players with multiple year-end No.1 finishes (Djokovic has done it on eight occasions). Alcaraz has won a tour-leading eight titles this year and will be looking to complete the coveted career Grand Slam in Melbourne.
The inevitability of Sinneraz
Can Alcaraz build on his round-robin whitewash and claim a maiden ATP Finals crown? He has dominated the Sinneraz head-to-head rivalry this year, winning four of their five high-stake encounters. Having said that, they haven’t met in indoor conditions since their very first tour-level clash back in 2021 (where Alcaraz got the better of Sinner at the Paris Masters). Sinner is a completely different beast now, currently sporting a remarkable 28-match indoor winning streak. If this does boil down to a Sinner-Alcaraz grudge match, I can’t see anything other than a Sinner victory (even if it’s a somewhat Pyrrhic one). If either of them wins this week, it will mean that they have shared 14 titles this calendar year (which is even more remarkable when you consider Sinner’s three-month ban). Is there a danger that this epic rivalry could make the game too predictable? That’s a question for another day.
