This promises to be an exhilarating all-American clash. Top seed Coco Gauff has had a surreal campaign that has veered from the sublime to the ridiculous. She won her 2nd career Grand Slam at Roland Garros and comes into this match with a handy 31-10 record for the year.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
National Bank Open (Canadian Open)
IGA Stadium, Montreal, Quebec (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 30th July
Coco Gauff (1) 0.17 vs Danielle Collins 3.8
But she will also be making her first appearance since a shock first-round defeat to Yastremska at Wimbledon. This week will mark her first hard-court outing since the Miami Open. Gauff has suffered on the hard-courts this year, winning just 50% of her hard-court matches since a quarterfinal run at the Aussie Open. She seems a bit rushed on the faster surfaces of late (her forehand issues are exposed on the quicker deliveries). Still, the former US Open champion is one of the premier players in the world and will feel confident of a solid run in Montreal. Next up for Gauff is someone who she played alongside in this year’s United Cup triumph: Danielle Collins.
I wonder if there’s a part of Collins that regrets not retiring at the end of last season. The combative American enjoyed a stellar 2024 campaign, winning a maiden WTA 1000 title in Miami. She got caught up in the hoopla, reversing her decision to retire at the end of the season. She has struggled to replicate that form this year, improving to 15-11 with a comprehensive first-round win over Viktoriya Tomova. In fact, she has dropped from No.11 to No.61 in the rankings since the start of the season. But she did show some signs of improvement against Tomova, showing some of the grunt and verbosity that has become her trademark. One of the harder, flatter hitters on the tour, Collins should theoretically thrive during this portion of the season,
The Verdict: Gauff to win in three sets at 3.1- This will incredibly be their first career meeting. I think that Gauff could struggle with Collins’ in-your-face style in the opening stages. Collins plays an aggressive brand of first-strike tennis and could force Gauff into some errors on that erratic forehand wing. Still, Gauff should feel rested after her disastrous Wimbledon campaign, and I can see her outlasting Collins in three.
Liudmila Samsonova (13) vs Naomi Osaka
This is one of those matches that makes you feel for the tennis balls. Big-hitting Russian Liudmila Samsonova arrives in excellent form, going 14-4 in her last four completed tournaments (including a runner-up finish in Strasbourg and a brilliant quarterfinal run a Wimbledon). In fact, that performance at SW19 marked her best career Grand Slam showing. Known for her frustrating unpredictability, Samsonova is finally starting to rediscover the form that catapulted her to two WTA 1000 finals back in 2023, where she finished runner-up to Pegula on these very courts before going down to Swiatek in the China Open final. She has already showcased her WTA 1000 proficiency this year, reaching the Indian Wells quarters with little form to speak of. The big-serving Russian loves faster surfaces, using her flat groundstrokes to penetrate the courts.
Former World No.1 Naomi Osaka has undergone a significant change this past week, parting ways with enigmatic coach Patrick Mouratoglou after less than a year together (that loss to Radacanu in Washington looked like a real dealbreaker). She has announced that she will be working with Polish coach Tomasz Wiktorowski on a trail basis (Wiktorowski helped guide Swiatek to four of her six Grand Slam titles). She looked quite assured in her Montreal opener, taking down Canadian qualifier Ariana Arseneault 6-4, 6-2. The result improved her record against players ranked outside the top 100 to 11-1 this season. She will need to significantly raise her level as she comes up against the resurgent Samsonova.
The Verdict: Osaka to win in straight sets at – These two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece, with Samsonova winning their most recent meeting at this year’s Berlin Open. Having said that, Osaka has won both of their hardcourt meetings, cruising past her 6-2, 6-4 at this year’s Miami Open. I think that Osaka’s superior hardcourt pedigree should come to the fore here.
