This should be an intriguing all-lefty clash. Denis Shapovalov has always been a boom-or-bust player. He burst onto the scene in this very tournament, beating Rafa Nadal in the 2017 Rogers Cup (hosted at Montreal).
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
National Bank Open (Canadian Open)
Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 30th July
Denis Shapovalov (22) 0.5 vs Learner Tien 1.55
This should be an intriguing all-lefty clash. Denis Shapovalov has always been a boom-or-bust player. He burst onto the scene in this very tournament, beating Rafa Nadal in the 2017 Rogers Cup (hosted at Montreal). He was a solid threat in Masters 1000 competition for the first few years of his career, reaching five semifinals between 2017 and 2020 (including a runner-up finish at the 2020 Paris Masters). He would go on to reach the semifinals at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships but has struggled to maintain consistency since then, missing half of last season due to a career-threatening knee injury. But he has shown signs of returning to his best form this season, beating three top ten players en route to his maiden ATP 500 title in Dallas. He then reached the semifinals in Acapulco. He failed to win consecutive matches for the rest of the hardcourt season and looked similarly uninspired on clay and grass. But he bounced back in impressive style in Los Cabos, winning his 4th career singles title. The hard-hitting lefty is a dangerous threat who appears to have worked through the worst of his knee issues.
Learner Tien continues to show why he could be one of tennis’ big names in years to come. The American teenager enjoyed amazing success in lower-tier action last year, culminating in a runner-up finish at the NextGen Finals. He then defied expectations with a 4th round run at the Aussie Open. He followed that up with a quarterfinal run in Acapulco before the results dried up somewhat. He looked more composed at the recent Washington Open, winning two matches in his round of 16 run. Tien took down Andrey Rublev in straight sets during his Washington run, making it four victories against top ten payers for Tien this year (the others being Medvedev, Zverev and Shelton). That’s the type of heat that augers well for the future. He eased past compatriot Colton Smith in his Toronto opener, winning 6-4, 7-5 despite only landing 46% of his first-serves (he also threw in six double-faults).
The Verdict: Shapovalov to win in straight sets at 1.25- This will be their first career meeting. Shapovalov has spoken openly about how hard he has worked to get back to full fitness and I can see him thriving in front of his home fans. He served powerfully in Los Cabos and that weapon could prove decisive against Tien (who had serving issues in his opening win).
Arthur Fils (15) vs Pablo Carreno Busta
21-year-old Frenchman Arthur Fils will be making his return to action this week, having spent over two months on the sidelines due to a stress fracture of the back. The Frenchman was enjoying a successful campaign prior to his injury at Roalnd Garros, reaching back-to-back ‘Sunshine Double’ quarterfinals to propel himself into the top 15 for the first time in his career. It will be interesting to see how he gets on after recovering from that stress fracture. It’s the sort of injury that can wreak havoc on your service action: Fils’ serve is an integral part of his power-based game. He is yet to win a match in this event and will hope to hit the ground running as he squares up against Spanish veteran Pablo Carreno Busta.
2022 National Bank Open champion Pablo Carreno Busta showed some trademark tenacity in his opener, coming back from a set down to see off Canadian wildcard Liam Draxl 2-6, 6-4, 6-4. It was not a high-quality match, with Carren Busta committing 31 unforced errors to Draxl’s 54. Still, the Spaniard will be relieved to pick up just his 4th tour-level victory of the year (he is 4-8 in tour-level matches this year). He did show off some winning tennis at a lower level, winning back-to-back hardcourt Challengers in Tenerife. The 34-year-old is clearly approaching the twilight of his career. He won the biggest title of his career in this event, winning the Masters 1000 title in Montreal in 2022. The former US Open finalist is a formidable hardcourt exponent who will look to take advantage of Fils’ recent injury issues.
The Verdict: Fils to win in three sets at – Fils leads the head-to-had 1-0, winning in straight sets at this year’s Barcelona Open. I think that Carreno Busta’s notable experience could give him a window into this clash. He understands the vagaries of these North American hardcourts and Fils will be playing in his first match since that painful injury. Sill, Fils could play himself into fitness and persevere in three.
