It’s that time of year again, where the entire tennis community gets into a New York state of mind
The upcoming US Open presents players with one final opportunity for Grand Slam glory (Alicia Keys was really onto something when she said New York is where dreams are made of). I honestly think that Alicia Keys would have just as good a chance of predicting this year’s women’s champ as any seasoned tennis prognosticator. The women’s game has been as volatile and combustible as the famed Flushing Meadows atmosphere, with seven different ladies claiming the last seven slams! Also, two-time defending champ and current world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka looks completely lost right now, opening the door for several ladies to possibly usurp her No.1 ranking. Can the Belarusian stop the bleeding in an arena that she has owned in recent seasons?
Four women will have their eyes on that world No.1 ranking this coming fortnight. Elena Rybakina is the only player who can gain the top ranking without relying on other results, needing to reach the semifinals to claim the No.1 ranking for the first time in her career. Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff will all finish No.1 if they win the tournament while Rybakina falls before the semifinals. Sabalenka can still retain the top ranking without being crowned champion, provided Rybakina doesn’t reach the semifinals and neither Gauff nor Pegula wins it all. Phew, that was mind-numbing stuff. The race for the No.1 ranking isn’t the only show in town. Former world No.1 Iga Swiatek has looked strong on the North American hardcourts while the likes of Mirra Andreeva and Marta Kostyuk have enjoyed consistent campaigns. This is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and consequential Grand Slams in recent memory.
Past Champions
2025: Aryna Sabalenka bt Amanda Anisimova (6-3, 7-6)
2024: Aryna Sabalenka bt Jessica Pegula (7-5, 7-5)
2023: Coco Gauff bt Aryna Sabalenka (2-6, 6-3, 6-2)
2022: Iga Swiatek bt Ons Jabeur (6-2, 7-6)
2021: Emma Radacanu bt Leylah Fernandez (6-4, 6-3)
2020: Naomi Osaka bt Victoria Azarenka (1-6, 6-3, 6-3)
North American Hardcourt Precursors
Washington Open: Alexandra Eala bt Jessica Pegula (4-6, 6-4, 6-0)
Memphis Classic: Kristina Liutova bt Darja Vidmanova (1-6, 6-1, 6-3)
Canadian Open: Iga Swiatek bt Elena Rybakina (6-2, 6-3)
Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff bt Jessica Pegula (6-2, 6-4)
Monterrey Open: in progress
The Race for No.1- Aryna Sabalekna (1), Elena Rybakina (2), Jessica Pegula (3), Coco Gauff (4)
What has happened to Aryna Sabalenka in recent months? The Belarusian powerhouse looked like an unstoppable force during her earthshattering run at this year’s ‘Sunshine Double’, seemingly paving the way for another titanic season. But she has fallen back into old ways, losing rhythm on her serve and capitulating in high-pressure scenarios (she has lost five of her last seven matches that went to a deciding set). Her torpedoing form has opened the door for not one, but three other women to potentially pinch that No.1 ranking. Sabalenka has been a beast at Flushing Meadows these past two years, dropping just two sets in her back-to-back victories. Can she find her focus in the Big Apple? I personally think that the sound of those galloping footsteps may be too much for her to bear.
The player with the most realistic chance of displacing Sabalenka is fellow power hitter Elna Rybakina. The Kazakh has looked like Sabalenka’s most natural foe since the end of last season, storming to the WTA Finals title before eclipsing Sabalenka in the final of this year’s Aussie Open. She has remained consistent since then, winning in Stuttgart while finishing runner-up in Indian Wells and Toronto. But the Kazkh is facing a race for fitness after withdrawing from Cincinnati with an ankle issue (she was just two wins away from usurping Sabalenka’s No.1 ranking). Fitness issues have often spelt doom for her US Open chances (she is yet to progress beyond the 4th round in New York). I’m more inclined to look elsewhere for potential US Open champs.
Cincinnati finalists Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff both seem to be peaking at the perfect time. Pegula will feel slightly deflated with the tame way she succumbed to Gauff in that Cincy final. Still, this has been yet another overwhelmingly consistent season for the best player in the world yet to win a slam. She has reached five finals this season, winning titles in Dubai and Charleston. She flexed her Grand Slam muscles with a semifinal run in Melbourne and a quarterfinal finish at Wimbledon. But this still feels like the tournament that best suits her brand of aggressive baseline pugilism. She reached her lone Grand Slam final here back in 2024 and followed that up with a semifinal run last year. She should be hugely motivated by that outside chance of capturing the world No.1 ranking.
With Sabalenka and Rybakina both operating under clouds of uncertainty, 2023 US Open champ Coco Gauff is starting to look like a tremendously safe bet. She has done magnificent work over the last year or so, teaming up with Sabalenka’s saviour Gavin McMillian to work on the biomechanics of her serve. She has borne the fruit the fruit of her labour in the last three months or so, reaching back-to-back semifinals at Wimbledon and Toronto before her title-winning run in Cincinnati. And let’s dare to get a little superstitious. Gauff won her first Cincinnati title back in 2023, which provided her with the launching pad to claim her maiden Grand Slam title in New York. Gauff’s relentless athleticism and improved serve stand her in good stead going into this unpredictable slam.
My Other Top Ten Picks- Karolina Muchova (7) and Iga Swiatek (8)
Now let me quickly eliminate some of the top players who I think may struggle this year. Reigning French Open champ Mirra Andreeva is 4-3 since her marathon triumph in Paris. Moreover, she is yet to progress beyond the 3rd round in New York. I think she needs a little more development before challenging for this title. I’m also more than happy to swerve shock Wimbledon champ Linda Noskova. The Czech was beaten by Caty McNally in Toronto before being soundly beaten by Anisimova in Cincy. It’s always hard for teenagers to follow up unprecedented success. I don’t think she is ready for the added scrutiny that comes with being a major champion.
Ukrainian anti-war advocate Elina Svitolina has enjoyed a tremendously consistent campaign in top events, reaching the quarterfinals stage or better in six slams/WTA 1000 events. She reached a 4th career Grand Slam semifinal in Melbourne and reached two WTA 1000 finals, finishing runner-up in Dubai before winning in Rome. I just think the wear and tear will get to her. She had to skip Cincy due to injury, and she hasn’t gone beyond the 3rd round here since 2021. Amanda Anismova was a player I had to consider very carefully. A beaten finalist here last season, Anisimova clearly has the baseline power to thrive on these surfaces. She also looked solid in Cincinnati, pushing Pegula in an engrossing three-set quarterfinal duel. The fact remains that Anisimova has only reached one semifinal this entire season. I had to swerve her based on that alone (but I was tempted).
Czech Grand Slam specialist Karolina Muchova will be making her first competitive outing since her heartbreaking Wimbledon final defeat to Linda Noskova. She required minor laparoscopic surgery following Wimbledon, opting to skip all the traditional US Open precursors. But the Czech is a past master of these surfaces, reaching back-to-back semifinals in 2023 and 2024 before a quarterfinal run last year. The two-time Grand Slam finalist always seems to elevate her game in these marquee events. She enjoyed an excellent first half of the season, winning titles in Qatar and Bad Homburg prior to that epic Wimbledon run. She just possesses a fully rounded all-court game that can adapt to nearly every situation.
It’s surreal to not discuss Iga Swiatek in the pre-tournament favourite’s section. That’s just been a given these past four years or so. But the seven-time Grand Slam champion endured a horrendous start to the campaign, progressing beyond the quarterfinal stage in just one of her first ten events. But the Pole has rediscovered something on the North American hardcourts, triumphing in Toronto before a creditable semifinal run in Cincinnati. Her and coach Francisco Roig have worked on introducing a bit more patience in her game, moving away from the one-dimensional hyper-aggression that we know her for. The 2022 US Open champ clearly understands the demands of these surfaces, reaching the semifinals just last season. Swiatek may relish this uncharted dark-horse territory.
My Mid-tier Options (11-20)- Marta Kostyuk (11) and Naomi Osaka (13)
Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk looks like a completely different player this season. She has developed an improved mental toughness, allowing her to pull through in the type of tense three-set battles in which she used to capitulate. She has also amped up the aggression on return, winning many more cheap points while getting away from the more convoluted (though admittedly entertaining) rallies. Kostyuk failed to reach a final last season but has already reached three this campaign, winning the biggest title of her career in Madrid. She has also evolved on the Grand Slam stage, reaching back-to-back semifinals at the French Open and Wimbledon Championships. Kostyuk reached the 3rd round here last season and arrives fresh off a solid quarterfinal run in Cincinnati. I think her array of shot-making will make her a firm fan favourite with the New York faithful.
Beneath the over-the-top fashion and general aura-farming, Queen Osaka looks ready for a return to the top of the game. The Japanese superstar has performed in fits and starts over the last few years, providing just enough evidence to suggest that she could return to the form that saw her claim four hardcourt Grand Slam titles (and reduce Serena Williams to a psychotic mess). A recurring abdominal issue forced her to withdraw while competing at this year’s Aussie Open. She took some time to recover from that but appears to be inching her way back into form. She showcased her Grand Slam mettle in her two least fancied slams, reaching a career-best 4th round in Paris before a career-best quarterfinal run at the Wimbledon Championships. She has clicked through the gears nicely on the North American hardcourts, reaching the semis in Washington before a quarterfinal exit in Toronto. The two-time US Open champ reached the semifinals here last year and just looks as if she is recapturing her best form. No player is relishing a 4th round match with Osaka, that’s for sure.
Longshot Options (21 and over)- Madison Keys (22) and Sara Bejlek (30)
2025 Aussie Open champ Madison Keys looks like a fantastic longshot pick. The American won in Eastbourne earlier this year but has otherwise been slightly below her dominant best. She has fought some fitness issues but comes into this event with some rejuvenated form, reaching the quarterfinals of the recent Cincinnati Open. Keys is a renowned Grand Slam threat, reaching the semifinal stage or better on seven different occasions. Keys reached the final here back in 2017 and is a further two-time semi-finalist. She has flirted with another deep Grand Slam run all year, knocked out in the 4th round in all three previous majors. Her flat, potent groundstrokes should get 10% more pop in front of her adoring home fans.
Recency bias is a hell of a drug. But yeah, Sara Bejlek’s incredible semifinal run in Cincinnati certainly caught my attention. The nuggety left-hander punched above her weight all week, accounting for three former Grand Slam champs in the process. The highlight of her week was that sensational straight-sets win over out-of-sorts world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. Interestingly, she would also be the one to conquer Madison Keys, my first longshot pick. In any event, Bejlek’s counterpunching style could be a perfect antidote to the more one-dimensional power-hitters. That lefty serve takes players out of position and her deft use of drop-shots and soft volleys could cause major disruptions.
