Former Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina pulled off a comeback for the ages in her 3rd round clash with Paula Badosa, saving an incredible six match-points in the 2nd set tiebreak before finally winning 4-6, 7-6, 7-6.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Duty Free Dubai Tennis Championships
Aviation Club Tennis Centre, Dubai, UAE (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Quarterfinals- 20th February
Elena Rybakina (6) 0.24 vs Sofia Kenin 2.95
Former Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina pulled off a comeback for the ages in her 3rd round clash with Paula Badosa, saving an incredible six match-points in the 2nd set tiebreak before finally winning 4-6, 7-6, 7-6. The big-serving Kazakh has improved to 9-3 in what has been a slightly frustrating campaign. She reached the 4th round of the Aussie Open and flirted with contention in Abu Dhabi and Qatar (tournaments where she flourished last season). It just feels as if Rybakina has lost the fear-factor that she had cultivated over the years. In fact, her win over Badosa broke a streak of four successive defeats over top ten opponents. Perhaps the whole off-court drama with coach Stefano Vukov factors into this ‘lull’. The eight-time champion has enjoyed success in the other Middle-East events but is yet to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage here. My thoughts on the court speed have changed over the week. There has been minimal wind interference and the courts have actually heated up. That should play into Rybakina’s hands.
Former Aussie Open champ Sofia Kenin has endured well-documented issues with form and injury over the past few years. But a run to last year’s Pan Pacific Open final indicated that she may be getting her act together. She enjoyed a slightly frustrating start to the season but seems to have found some rhythm in the Middle East (she has won seven of her last nine matches). Kenin probably never had too much confidence coming into Dubai (she was on a five-match losing streak in this tournament). But she has defied expectations, surviving a high-quality draw to win three successive matches for the first time since last year’s final in Japan. She looked solid against Vekic in her opener before showing her trademark girt in a three-set epic with Marta Kostyuk. She just cruised past defending champion Jasmine Paolini 6-4, 6-0 (though the Italian was basically incapacitated by injury in that 2nd set). I have been really impressed with Kenin’s serving in Dubai. The serve has often been a weakness but she has managed a first-serve percentage of over 70 throughout the tournament. The aggressive American- no doubt spurred on buy Amanda Anisimova’s success in Qatar- stands a decent chance in this match if she can keep those serving numbers up.
The Verdict: Kenin to win in three at 7.6- Rybakina leads the head-to-head 2-0. Having said that, neither of those results was a formality. Rybakina won in three sets on these courts back in 2020. She then won 7-6, 7-6 at Indian Wells in 2023. I think that Kenin’s improved serving could give her a glimmer of hope here. Also, Rybakina spent almost three hours on court yesterday. By contrast, Kenin romped home to victory against a visibly-ailing Paolini. I expect Kenin to come out aggressive and potentially force plenty of errors from the Kazakh.
Karolina Muchova (14) 0.24 vs Sorana Cirstea 2.95
Could this be Karolina Muchova’s week to FINALLY capture that long-awaited 2nd WTA Tour title? She is simply too good to have only one title (even with all the injury issues). Muchova is an
exceptional all-court player, reaching the semifinal stage or better in three of her last six slams (including a runner-up finish at the 2023 French Open). The two-time WTA 1000 finalist finished runner-up in Beijing last year and will feel confident of perhaps going one better this time around (especially with the likes of Sabalenka and Gauff already eliminated). Muchova breezed past Suzan Lmaens in her opener before another straight sets win over Emma Radacanu (a match marred by some obsessive Radacanu fan). She was really made to work for her semifinal spot against American McCartney Kessler (the American actually hit 45 winners to Muchova’s 36). But the Czech showed more composure in the clutch points and will feel relived to have got past that hurdle.
Sorana Cirstea has been a nice surprise package this year. She came into this event with little fanfare, winning just one tour-level match all season. It must be noted that she missed almost the entire 2nd half of last season due to a foot injury. The flat-hitting baseliner produced a standout turn in Dubai last year, reaching the final four of a WTA 1000 event for just the 3rd time in her career. She has continued that Dubai love affair with some typically bullish performances this week. The Romanian started with a bang, shocking Daria Kasatkina 6-1, 6-4 in her opener. Rain wreaked havoc on Tuesday and she was forced go play twice yesterday, astonishingly coming through two-three set thrillers to reach this year’s quarters. She took out 8th seed Emma Navarro in the round of 16, outdueling the crafty American with the sheer ferocity of her shot-making. An extremely aggressive player, Cirstea has suffered with inconsistency for much of her career. Does she have enough gas left in the tank to challenge Muchova?
The Verdict: Muchova to win in straight sets at 0.62- Muchova leads the head-to-head 4-1, winning three of their four 2023 meetings (including a straight-sets win in this very event). I think that she should easily make it 5-1 this week. Cirstea is possibly going to be dead on her feet after her herculean efforts yesterday (she spent six hours on court). That- coupled with the head-to-head disparity- suggests that a straight-sets win for Muchova is the way to go.
