This promises to be a fascinating clash between two accomplished indoor operators (one in form, one woefully out of form). Let’s start with the good.
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Open 13
Palais des sports de Marseille, Marseille, France (Indoor Hardcourts)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 12th-13th February
12th February
Ugo Humbert (2) (29/100) vs Alexander Bublik (5/2)
Frenchman Ugo Humbert has enjoyed a meteoric rise these past 18 months or so. The defending Marseille champ reached four finals last year, winning this title as well as the ATP 500 event in Dubai. He would go on to reach the biggest final of his career towards the end of the season, losing to Alex Zverev in the final of the Paris Masters. That Paris Masters run tells you everything you need to know about his indoor abilities. The big-serving lefty has an ultra-aggressive style and loves to back up his big delivery with decisive net play. Three of his six career titles have come on indoor hardcourts and he will once again be a huge threat in front of his fanatical home supporters.
Flat-hitting Kazakh Alexander Bublik will be looking to play spoiler again after ending Richard Gasquet’s Marseille campaign with a solid 6-4, 6-4 victory. It was a much-needed result for Bublik, who went into that match with a dismal 4-14 record dating back to last year’s Wimbledon Championships. Bublik gave one of his best serving performances in ages against Gasquet, firing 13 aces and winning a hugely impressive 84% of his first-serve points. As I noted earlier in the week, Bublik is a dangerous opponent who tends to pop out of hibernation to reach finals. This has been especially true on indoor hardcourts, where the Kazakh bomber has won three of his six career titles (two of which coming in similarly quick French indoor arenas). Like famed Aussie rascal Nick Kyrgios, Bublik is prone to bouts of listlessness and general apathy. Perhaps the chance to take down another hometown hero will bring out the competitor in him.
The Verdict: Humbert to win in three sets at 51/20– Humbert leads the head-to-head 1-0, beating the Kazakh in straight sets at last year’s Dubai championships. This match could be a bit tighter than many anticipate. Bublik thrives in the villain role and has the type of power-based game that can quickly blitzkrieg a set. Still, Humbert’s superior net play and improved athleticism should see him over the line in three.
13th February
Hubert Hurkacz (4) vs Z.Z. Zhang
Big-serving Pole Hubert Hurkacz looked in fine form in Rotterdam, taking down Rublev in the quarters before pushing eventual champ Carlos Alcaraz to three sets in a thrilling semifinal clash. It was yet another excellent indoor showing from the former Paris Masters and ATP Finals semifinalist. He played well against Alcaraz, hitting 33 winners to 31 unforced errors in a fearsome display of flat-hitting indoor tennis. He will probably feel somewhat disappointed that the Spanish wunderkind was able to win 12 of the first 13 points in the deciding set. Still, Hurkacz is a three-time indoor finalist, winning this very title in 2023. He served 40 aces in Rotterdam and looks extremely well poised for another tilt at this Open 13 championship.
28-year-old Chinese player Zhang Zhizhen finally picked up his first win of the season, surviving a monumental three-setter against Frenchman Quentin Halys. Zhang enjoyed a really encouraging 2024 campaign, going out to Jannik Sinner in the Halle semifinals before reaching a maiden ATP Tour final in the Hangzhou Open (where he lost to Marin Cilic). Zhang rose to a career-high ranking of 31 last year but has struggled to get things going this campaign. To be fair, he has received some cruddy draws this year. He lost to a resurgent Shapovalov in Adelaide and then went down in five sets to Holger Rune in the first round of the Aussie Open. He then drew Andrey Rublev in the first round of the Rotterdam Open (he must be feeling that fate is conspiring against him). In any event, he showed plenty of character to come through that clash with Halys, improving to 1-3 for the season. Zhang is a compact player with a deceptively powerful serve (he fired ten aces against Halys).
The Verdict: Hurkacz to win in straight sets at – Hurkacz unsurprisingly leads the head-to-head 3-1, winning their most recent in straight sets at last year’s United Cup. Zhang beat the Pole at the 2023 Japan Open and will look to draw on that experience. I just can’t see the Chinese star offering much resistance to Hurkacz. Hurkacz looked excellent in Rotterdam, as his new coaching collaboration with Lendel and Massu appears to be paying off.
