Alex Michelson has been steadily rising through the ATP ranks for some time now. The 20-year-old American turned pro in 2023 (just two weeks after reaching his maiden ATP Tour final in Newport).
He enjoyed a somewhat erratic 2024 campaign, highlighted by runner-up finishes at Newport (again) and Winston-Salem. He has enjoyed some really encouraging results this year, following up a quarterfinal run in Auckland with a career-best Grand Slam showing at the Aussie Open. He was brilliant in Melbourne, accounting for Tsitsipas and Khachanov en route to a 4th round finish. Michelson seems to have filled out a bit this year and his serve has gathered a little more pop. He is somewhat fortunate to be the final eight this week, benefitting from a walkover in round of 16 clash with compatriot Michael Mmoh. There were some tense scenes in the clash, as Michelson and Mmoh engaged in a heated exchange after Mmoh had taken a brief off-court break. In any event, Mmoh won the first set but was forced to withdraw due to injury. Michelson served decently, hitting six aces and winning 77% if his first-serve points.
Brit Cameron Norrie reached his 2nd quarterfinal of the season with a gritty straight-sets win over Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech. He showed plenty of characteristic grit in the opening set, recouping a break to take the set to a decisive tiebreak. He saved three set points before finally claiming the first-set tiebreak. And he never looked back from that moment on, romping home to win the 2nd set 6-2. It’s easy to forget that Cameron Norrie is now on an eight-match Delray Beach winning streak (he won the title when he last played here back in 2022). And you can see why Norrie has done well here in the past. These aren’t the fastest hardcourts in the world, giving a guy with his athleticism and tenacity a chance to retrieve more lost causes. I also think his heavy topspin forehand can bamboozle some of the younger guys, who predominately look to flatten out their groundstrokes. Norrie has endured a tough 18 months or so but did reach that final in Moselle towards the end of last year. There is still a fine player in there, it is just a matter of Norrie regaining the confidence he had two years ago.
The Verdict: Norrie to win in straight sets at 26/10- Norrie leads the head-to-head 1-0, overcoming the American in three sets at last week’s Dallas Open (in quicker indoor conditions). I think that Norrie will make it back-to-back wins against the up-and-coming Michelson. He understands what it takes to prosper in these often blustery conditions, using that whippy topspin forehand and counterpunching style to mix things up.
15th February
Mattei Arnaldi (4) vs Brandon Nakashima (6)
This should prove to be a fascinating match between two players I actually backed to lose in the round of 16 stage. Italian Matteo Arnaldi improved to 4-3 for the season with a keenly-fought three-set win over the exciting Learner Tien. It was a real grind, with Arnaldi’s 24 aces tipping the scale slightly in his favour. He was inconsistent on his 2nd delivery, winning just 40% of his 2nd serve points. His counterpunching style is probably a littler better suited to these conditions than I previously envisaged. The courts aren’t excessively quick and his use of topspin give his groundstrokes some natural variety. A semifinalist at last year’s Canadian Masters, Arnaldi clearly understands how to get the job done on an outdoor hardcourt (he also reached the 3rd round of the US Open).
I did not see that one coming. Brandon Nakashima really pulled out all the stops in his round of 16 comeback win over compatriot Reily Opelka, producing his best performance in ages to improve to 3-4 for the season. It would have been very easy for Nakashima to capitulate after dropping the first set to the 6’11” giant. But he served exceptionally for the remainder of the match, ultimately winning 84% of his first-serve points. He served a whopping 14 aces in the clash (only three less than Opelka). He only committed 16 unforced errors in a high-quality hardcourt outing. Nakashima is finally starting to look the player who looked a threat during last year’s North American hardcourt campaign, where he picked up back-to-back round of 16 finishes in Montreal and Cincinnati prior to a 4th round run at the US Open.
The Verdict: Nakashima to win in straight sets at- Nakashima leads the head-to-head 1-0, beating the Italian in an epic five-set clash at the 2022 NextGen Finals. I think Nakashima will have the edge here. He just withstood the ultimate serving barrage from Opelka and should be able to make inroads on Arnaldi’s strong delivery. I think the industrious American will also dominate the extended exchanges.
