Andrey Rublev’s Grand Slam meltdowns have become the stuff of legend, reducing his incredible talents to a few meme-worthy snapshots. But you cannot deny that Rublev—outside of those five-set affairs—is one of the most consistent players in world tennis.
The 16-time ATP Champion will be looking to reach an incredible 27th career final when he takes on Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Qatar semifinals. Rublev- the 2020 Qatar champion- fought his way into a 4th Qatari semifinal with a marathon win over Alex de Minaur (finally converting his 8th match-point to win the tussle). Rublev is a six-time Masters finalist, winning the crown in Madrid last year. If Grand Slam tennis had not existed these past ten years, Rublev would have probably come close to reaching the summit of the rankings. Rublev’s victory over de Minaur had added importance: it was Rublev’s first win against a top ten player since August last year.
Another player with a poor Grand Slam pedigree relative to their ability, Felix Auger-Aliassime has been a bit of a lucky boy this week, progressing into the semifinals courtesy of back-to-back withdrawals (he was leading Medvedev before the Russian called time on their quarterfinal match). Still, it doesn’t change the fact that the Canadian- long touted as a future World No.1- is having a bit of a moment. He has already won two titles this year (in Adelaide and Montpelier). He is now 11-2 for the season and seems determined to prove all his naysayers wrong. The hardcourt specialist endured a surreal 2024 campaign, picking up his two most significant results on clay (he finished runner-up in Madrid and would finish 4th at the Paris Olympic Games hosted at Roland Garros). The Canadian served brilliantly in the set he won in the quarterfinals, serving four aces and winning 91% of his first-serve points against Medvedev. His forehand has been typically devastating this season while his footwork appears to have improved. The improved footwork has resulted in less of the unforced errors that have plagued him in recent campaigns.
The Verdict: Auger-Aliassime to win in three at 3.8- Rublev leads the head-to-head 5-1, with the Canadian winning his one and only match at the 2022 Rotterdam Open. However, five of their matches have gone the distance and I don’t expect this to be any different. This should be a fascinating match between two players with almost identical styles (serve big and set up that forehand). I feel like this could be the Canadian’s chance to exact some revenge on the wily Russian. Auger-Aliassime has barely spent any time on court this week while Rublev just had one of the most psychologically taxing matches you are likely to see. Auger-Aliassime is playing well and should be the fresher of the two.
Jack Draper (8) vs Jiri Lehecka
Jack Draper improved to 6-1 for the season with an accomplished comeback win over former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini. In fairness, the result was much more convincing that the 4-6,
6-4, 6-3 scoreline would suggest. Draper threated Berrettini’s megawatt serve throughout the first set but couldn’t take advantage of the six break-points he created. He ended up losing the first set but just kept on doing the right things, serving out wide to Berrettini’s vulnerable backhand side. His backhands were crisp and he volleyed well when he needed to. The 2024 US Open semifinalist has been plagued by injuries in his young career (he just returned from a one-month hiatus due to a hip injury sustained at the Aussie Open). But it would appear that his staff have managed him expertly, not falling into the trap of rushing him back into action ahead of schedule.
Jiri Lehecka just picked up the biggest win of his young career, taking down World No.3 Carlos Alcaraz in three sets to reach another semifinal (the 9th in his young career). Lehecka was sensational against the former World No.1, backing up 135mph serves with empathic groundstrokes. He really looked the superior player in the majority of the extended exchanges. You have to admire the way he held his nerve after Alcaraz claimed the 2nd set. Lehecka improved to 12-2 for the season after his statement win. He won a 2nd career title in Brisbane before running into a Djokovic masterclass at the Aussie Open. Lehecka has now served more aces than his opponent in eleven of his fourteen matches this season. The Czech was forced to withdraw from Rotterdam due to a thigh issue and he did show some signs of physical discomfort towards the end of the Alcaraz epic.
The Verdict: Lehecka to win in three at – These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece (both meetings coming last season). Lehecka won in three sets in last year’s Adelaide final while Draper won in straight sets at the Paris Masters. I think that Lehecka’s strong double-handed backhand will offer some solid resistance to Draper’s whippy service action. Still, this should be a closely fought affair between two potential superstars of the game. Draper will likely look to come forward more but he should be wary of Lehecka’s passing ability. Lehecka in three feels about right.
