While these were vastly differing opponents, what was evident is that the two northern hemisphere sides know how to bag five pointers. As such, teams who come up against them will need to cross the whitewash in order to beat them
Changing Dynamics
Rugby World Cups have generally been won by sides with great kickers. Dan Carter did it for the Kiwis in 2015, Jonny Wilkson for the English in 2003 while Percy Montgomery was a metronome for South Africa in 2007.
Going back even further in time, Jannie de Beer helped an underperforming SA side to the semi-finals in 1999 where he was out-dropped by Steven Larkham, while Joel Stransky’s boot was so vital to South Africa cause in 1995.
Goal-kicking has generally decided finals as well, with the 1995 and 2007 World Cup finals seeing no tries scored in them while 1991 featured just one and 2003, 2011 and 2019 just two. And while other finals have seen tries, the inaugural 1987 World Cup final saw four tries as did the 2015 final, no final has seen more than four tries.
This could well change this year, however, with Ireland and France scoring at a staggering rate, South Africa struggling with their goalkicking and New Zealand ever dangerous with ball-in-hand.
To Beat the Best You Will Need to Score
It may have been just the opening round last week but their was plenty of evidence to suggest that goal-kicking is not going to get you past the big guns. France managed to score 27 points in their fixture and while only ten of those points came from tries, they put so much pressure on the Kiwis’ defensive line that they conceded a number of penalties which inflated the score. As New Zealand found out the opener, two tries simply will not suffice against the French as they ended up losing by 14 points.
The Scotland versus South Africa game was much the same. While the latter only scored two tries of their own, they still garnered a comfortable 18-3 win and that was with them coughing up a number of points from the kicking tee. If you don’t score against the South Africans, you simply won’t beat them. It’s the same story for the likes of the Kiwis, Ireland, and even Australia, who despite their defensive frailties, know their way to a tryline.
England’s Tactics Will Not Pay-Off
This whole piece came about after speaking to an English mate of mine, who while happy about their snatch and grab victory over Argentina, did say they’ll have no chance against the big boys come the quarters.
England, having gone down a man, went full on ten-man rugby with George Ford snapping three drop goals and six penalties to hand them an opening round win. And while one can argue this is England playing to their strengths, these types of tactics will come up short against the French, who averaged over four tries a game in this year’s 6 Nations and Ireland who averaged exactly four tries a game. The southern hemisphere sides also like a good old five-pointer with New Zealand averaging just under six tries per game in the Rugby Championship and South Africa averaging four on the head.
They Don’t Need the Tries. You Do!
The big guns of world rugby don’t actually need to score that many tries. It’s the advantage they have when it comes to the penalty count that sinks the rest of the sides. France were a prime example last weekend. They only scored two tries but they managed to get a good few points from the boot and then suffocate New Zealand which left the Kiwis chasing points, which inevitably led to more penalties being conceded by the men in black. The Kiwis, albeit a far from vintage All Blacks outfit, are still a very tidy side and even they struggled to mix it with the French.
It was the exact same story for the Scots against South Africa. South Africa were two tries off their average in the Rugby Championship but their win was oh so comfortable.
You simply have to put pressure on the big guns otherwise they will just bully you. And the only way to put pressure on them is by keeping things tight on the scoreboard. It seems that is extremely hard to achieve through three-pointers at the minute!
