It’s probably up to the women to generate all this year’s clay-court excitement. Let’s be honest, Jannik’s Sinner’s upcoming French Open coronation is practically a foregone conclusion.
As exciting as it will be to see Sinner join Alcaraz as a career Grand Slam holder, I prefer more suspense in my narratives (I’m a sucker for murder mysteries). On the men’s side, Sinner and Alcaraz have combined for the last nine Grand Slam titles. Across that span, six different women have won slams (the last five won by different players). And this year’s French Open is looking wonderfully chaotic right now, with many of the leading protagonists dealing with poor form or injury issues, opening the door to a couple of potential spoilers.
Top two vulnerable? (Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina)
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are firmly established as the two premier players in women’s tennis. World No.2 Rybakina blitzed back into the upper echelons of the game with wins at last year’s WTA Finals and this year’s Aussie Open. World No.1 Sabalenka was on the losing end in that dramatic Melbourne final but regathered herself to win both legs of the coveted ‘Sunshine Double’. Despite this, neither player has been overly convincing leading into Paris. Rybakina showed off her clay-court prowess with victory in Stuttgart. But she came unstuck in Madrid, shocked in straight sets by Potapova. Sabalenka has only played one clay-court event thus far, also succumbing to a shock Madrid exit (at the hands of big-hitting Hailey Baptiste). I think that Sabalenka has perhaps distracted herself with the boycott saga currently gripping the game (revenues have gone up and players want a bigger piece of the pie). Both ladies will be looking to finetune their games in Rome. But as you can see, the WTA Tour bears little resemblance to the two-man show on the ATP side.
Questions over previous champs (Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek)
Defending champion Coco Gauff is a hard one to read right now. She has enjoyed a solid season, improving to 17-7 with her victory over Valentova in Rome. But she has looked a bit gun-shy in the big moments, thrashed by Svitolina in the Aussie Open quarters before losing to Sabalenka in the Miami Open final. She failed to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage in either of her clay-court events thus far, still coming to terms with the forearm injury that forced her to retire at Indian Wells. That could prove to be a major issue ahead of Roland Garros, which is probably the biggest grind in all of tennis. Still, Gauff is an elite competitor who cannot be discounted.
Four-time Roland Garros champ Iga Swiatek is an extremely different story. Once considered something of a clay-court demigoddess, Swiatek is experiencing the most difficult season of her glittering career. I know she is trying to mitigate rumours of her demise, calling attention to the food poisoning that forced her to withdraw in Madrid. Wait just a minute there Iga, you haven’t gone beyond the quarterfinal stage in your last nine events. Sure, we didn’t expect too many more 37-match winning streaks. But this type of fall off is beyond our wildest imaginings. Opponents adopt a simple blueprint against Swiatek: take time away from her and persecute that backhand wing. It’s honestly been difficult to watch. Currently nursing hip and ankle issues, Swiatek is unlikely to be the domineering presence who has embarrassed many a player on court Phillipe-Chatrier.
Two potential spoilers (Mirra Andreeva and Marta Kostyuk)
It’s ironic that the two biggest outside threats to this year’s French Open crown appear to come from opposite ends of the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict. It’s even more ironic that they recently competed in a surprising Madrid Open final, with the Ukrainian emerging victorious after refusing to acknowledge her teenage opponent. I know that rubbed people the wrong way on a broad human level. However, there are bigger things going on in the world and I’m sure Andreeva is mature enough to understand that.
Teenage Dreams
I said in a recent article- even prior to the Madrid run- that 19-year-old Russian Mirra Andreeva is shaping up nicely for a proper tilt at Roland Garros. She has matured since narrowly missing out on last year’s WTA Finals, excising some of those on-court tantrums for a calmer approach. She has trained relentlessly, gaining much more power from the back of the court. Known for her defensive prowess, Andreeva can now inject sudden pace into proceedings. She has thrived this season, winning titles in Adelaide and Linz. She has also looked brilliant on the clay, reaching the semifinals in Stuttgart before a runner-up finish in Madrid. Her added strength has afforded her the opportunity to be more aggressive on the slower clay (she has a 13-2 record this year). I have been bullish on her chances and think her Madrid Open final defeat may give her added motivation.
Backflipping to victory
Her Madrid conqueror was of course backflipping entertainer Marta Kostyuk. While Andreeva was certainly on my radar, Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk has snuck up on me like Batman. Kostyuk enjoyed an underwhelming 2025 campaign, failing to reach a single final in throughout the year. She focused on similar areas to Andreeva in her off-season, looking to become less emotional in high-pressure scenarios. She used to revel in her reputation as the tour’s great entertainer, perhaps devoting too much energy to long, convoluted rallies. She has looked to be more aggressive, conserving energy for key moments. And she has reaped the benefits this year, finishing runner-up in Brisbane before finding herself on clay, winning back-to-back titles in Rouen and Madrid. She has withdrawn from Rome due to nagging hip issues. When I see the word ‘nagging’ in an injury withdraw, I automatically assume it’s a precautionary ‘I’m saving myself for Paris move’ (call me a cynic).
