The good lord giveth and the good lord taketh away. I have been lamenting the age of ‘Sinneraz’ for some time now, stating that the duopoly was in danger of sucking up all the available oxygen in the game.
But I still think that Grand Slam tennis is richer when both men are in attendance. I want to see someone rise above them organically, beat both while they are firing and fit. Unfortunately, this year’s US Open will mark the 3rd successive slam in which one of them will not be attendance. Carlos Alcaraz will make his eagerly awaited return to action in New York, looking to become the first man to defend this title since Roger Federer in 2008. On the opposite end of the coin, hardcourt demigod Jannik Sinner has been forced to withdraw due to a right-knee issue. I think the casual observer will be pleased with the swap. Sinner- as undeniably impressive as he is- is a bit of a charisma vacuum. Alcaraz possesses an effervescence that is tailormade for the delirium of this tournament.
The rest of the field should be buoyed by both Sinner’s absence and Alcaraz’s lack of preparation. 12 months ago, it would have been absurd to consider any other player (Djokovic aside) as a realistic Grand Slam threat. Things have changed. Alex Zverev shook the Grand Slam monkey off his back in Paris, taking advantage of ideal circumstances to finally break his Grand Slam duck. Sinner turned Zverev into his personal pinata these past few seasons, beating the German in their last ten meetings! I’m sure that the Zverev camp was secretly delighted with the Italian’s predicament. There are also several legitimate American threats this year, with Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton looking to feed off the borderline psychotic New York atmosphere. Daniil Medvedev is always a danger on these surfaces while the likes of Rafael Jodar and Brandon Nakashima will look to seize on recent momentum.
Past Champions
2025: Carlos Alcaraz bt Jannik Sinner (6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4)
2024: Jannik Sinner bt Taylor Fritz (6-3, 6-4, 7-5)
2023: Novak Djokovic bt Daniil Medvedev (6-3, 7-6, 6-3)
2022: Carlos Alcaraz bt Casper Rudd (6-4, 2-6, 7-6, 6-3)
2021: Daniil Medvedev bt Novak Djokovic (6-4, 6-4, 6-4)
2020: Dominic Thiem bt Alex Zverev (2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6)
North American Hardcourt Precursors
Washington Open: Taylor Fritz bt Rafael Jodar (7-6, 6-4)
Los Cabos Open: Arthur Gala bt Denis Shapovalov (6-3, 6-4)
Canadian Open: Ben Shelton bt Brandon Nakashima (6-3, 7-6)
Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils bt Frances Tiafoe (6-3, 1-6, 6-0)
Winston Salem Open: in progress
The Big Three- Carlos Alcaraz (2), Alex Zverev (1) and Novak Djokovic (4)
Carlos Alcaraz is a bit of an unknown quantity this coming fortnight. The two-time US Open champ hasn’t played a competitive match in four months, surprising some onlookers with his decision to return in New York (wrist injuries need significant time to heal). I wonder if Alcaraz would have opted to skip the event had he known that Sinner was going to withdrawal (one for the philosophers to ponder). It’s will be a jolt to the system to come out of dormancy and into best-of-five set tennis. Having said that, I personally think that Grand Slam tennis can be the ideal place to make a return to action. The top guys should get a couple of easy matches to open their accounts. Alcaraz can use those early rounds to finetune his game and get back up to speed. By all accounts, Alcaraz has looked excellent in practice, and I think he should be able to find his groove quite easily.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Alex Zverev was involved in Sinner’s injury. Perhaps he went down the voodoo route like Chucky, put some pins in a Jannik Sinner doll. In all seriousness though, there is no player in the draw who benefits more from Sinner’s absence than French Open champ Alex Zverev. Zverev has obviously enjoyed a fantastic campaign, winning that maiden slam in Paris before a completely unheralded run to the Wimbledon final. He will go into this as perhaps the most unlikely No.1 seed in recent memory. But he is yet to reach a hardcourt final all season. In fact, the 2020 US Open runner-up has failed to progress beyond the quarterfinals stage in New York in each of his last three outings. I don’t thing he vibes well with the New York atmosphere. The crowds tend to get unruly and Zverev is often cast as the pantomime villain (for reasons best not discussed here). His huge serve and massive groundstrokes always give him a chance. I just think he could struggle in five-set epics against more favoured opponents.
Novak Djokovic is running out of chances to pull clear of Margaret Court and win that elusive 25th Grand Slam singles title. The 39-year-old Serb has only played once match since his straight-sets Wimbledon semifinal defeat to Jannik Sinner, capitulating in the Cincinnati heat against the unfancied Thiago Agustin Tirante. Djokovic said he is struggling with an underlying health condition that is exacerbated by heat and humidity. That is a scary sentence when you consider the late summer New York humidity. I just have my doubts about tennis’ great ironman. I think that these championships- in these conditions- are probably the hardest to win when you are in the twilight of your career. Federer never won another US Open after that defeat to del Potro in 2009. Everything about this tournament is geared towards youth and physical resolve. I wouldn’t say Djokovic has no chance; it’s just going to take a herculean effort.
My Other Top Ten Picks- Ben Shelton (8) and Taylor Fritz (9)
Now comes the time for me to casually eliminate some of the top contenders who I don’t think will impact this tournament. Felix Auger Aliassime has reached the semifinals here twice before (including last season). But the Canadian has been nowhere of late, failing to reach a semifinal since Dubai. It’s miraculous that he has managed to squeeze his way into that 3rd seeding. I just can’t see him lasting with this type of form. ‘Little engine that could’ Alex de Minaur has enjoyed a solid, if unremarkable campaign. His general lack of firepower makes the quarterfinal stage the celling (he has lost all seven of his Grand Slam quarterfinals to date). I also wouldn’t get too carried away by Cincy champ Arthur Fils. The Frenchman has the game to compete with any player, but he just hasn’t done much of anything at Grand Slam level. He has never gone beyond the 4th round of a slam and has never gone beyond the 2nd round here. How would he cope with the mental insanity of a deep New York run?
I came very close to selecting Flavio Cobolli. The Italian won the Mexican Open before a runner-up finish on the Munich clay. But I don’t think anyone could have possibly foreseen that runner-up finish at the French Open. But hey, the French Open was mangled by a heatwave and Cobolli was just the beneficiary of that, right? Wrong. Cobolli has continued to impress on the biggest stages, reaching the Wimbledon quarters before a semifinal run in Cincinnati. I still think that his game is ideally suited to slower surfaces. He lacks a killer serve and slower surfaces give him more time to set up that monster forehand. The other guy who nearly made the grade was Daniil Medvedev. The Russian enjoyed an excellent first half of the season but has tailed off significantly since. But he is obviously a former champion here and he understands these conditions as well as anyone. He can get a read on the speed of the courts and adjust his position accordingly. I just don’t think he is playing well enough right now and that volatile temper could become an issue.
Yeah, these picks might seem a little boring. But there’s something in the air, and it’s telling me that a huge American challenge is on the cards. Ben Shelton is just ticking all the right boxes right now. I must admit, I hesitated in choosing him. Shelton has been a regular selection of mine in recent years and has often underwhelmed when I thought he was on the precipice of greatness. He has underperformed at Grand Slam level this season but has nonetheless evolved as a player, winning four titles on all three surfaces. His recent barnstorming victory in Montreal has convinced me that he is ready to step up to the plate and fulfil his Grand Slam potential. A former Aussie and US Open semi-finalist, Shelton understands the vagaries of a deep Grand Slam run.
I’m ignoring a few more in-vouge options (Cobolli, Fils) and opting for American Taylor Fritz. Fritz has had a bit of an up-and-down campaign thus far. Hamstrung by some right-knee and oblique issues, Fritz hasn’t looked as potent in the more physically taxing Masters events or slams (though that quarterfinal run at SW19 was solid enough). But he has been efficient outside of the razzle-dazzle of the big events, reaching four finals and winning a 2nd career ATP 500 title in Washington. He hasn’t looked incredible in the lead-in events but has undeniable Grand Slam pedigree to fall back on. Fritz finished runner-up here back in 2024 and has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in each of the last three seasons. He has developed a very astute net game and should be able to roll through matches if he can keep that first-serve percentage up.
My Mid-tier Options (11-20)- Frances Tiafoe (11) and Jiri Lehecka (12)
It’s always a bit risky to back someone who was bagled in their most recent set of competitive tennis. Welcome to the wonderful enigma that is Frances Tiafoe. I have said it once and I will say it again, Tiafoe is probably the most naturally talented member of this current crop of American talent. On his best day, his shot-making prowess and sheer athleticism make him a sight to behold. Inconsistency is the bane of his existence. But he can still turn it on out of nowhere, reaching this year’s Mexican Open final before winning in Halle. And he looked sensational in Cincinnati, withstanding the sweltering conditions to reach a 2nd Masters 1000 final. Sure, he ran out of gas in that final set against Fils. But the last time he finished runner-up in Cincy he would go on to reach the semifinals at the US Open. Tiafoe feeds off the New York crowd like a vampire, and I can see him going deep again.
I’m opting to swerve exciting Spanish youngster Rafael Jodar and in-form American Brandon Nakashima. I still think that Jodar lacks the experience to compile a deep Grand Slam run that isn’t on clay. While Nakashima has looked impressive, I’m still unconvinced that he has the weaponry to go deep into the 2nd week. Jiri Lehecka is an unsexy but, I think, sensible pick. The Czech reached the biggest final of his career on a North American hardcourt earlier this season, going down bravely against peak-Sinner in the final of the Miami Open. I1122t was the type of performance that underlines his hardcourt prowess. He has hinted at some deep runs since, going down in four sets to eventual finalist Alex Zverev in the 4th round of the Wimbledon Championships. Lehecka reached the quarterfinals here last season and should be a be able to draw on that experience as he navigates his way through the draw.
Longshot Options (21 and over)- Andrey Rublev (23) and Matteo Berrettini
This has been a chastening season for former top-ten regular Andrey Rublev. The perennial Grand Slam quarterfinalist lost some of his pop this year, found out by players with more dimension. He won an understrength Nordea Open and reached the final of the Barcelona Open. But he has been abysmal in upper-tier hardcourt events, going 1-4 in the four Masters 1000 hardcourt events. Still, this has always been the most consistent slam of his admittedly disappointing Grand Slam career. He has reached at least the 4th round here in seven of his last nine appearances, going out at the quarterfinal stage on four occasions. The Russian baseliner may benefit from the fact that there are virtually zero expectations this time around.
Sure, Matteo Berrettini is in poor form and hasn’t reached an ATP final in two years. He also has an injury record that rivals Scottish curmudgeon Andy Murray. But I guarantee you that no top player will be thrilled at the prospect of meeting Berrettini in the early rounds. He just possesses that inalienable ability to turn it out on the biggest stage (as evidenced by his quarterfinal run at this year’s French Open). The Italian had a special affinity for these courts at one stage, reaching the quarterfinals or better in three out of four appearances between 2019-2022. Dangerous.
