Neil Morrice shares all of his best bets and tips for the opening day of Royal Ascot 2024.
ROYAL ASCOT 2024 – DAY 1
Race 1 QUEEN ANNE STAKES (Group 1)
No8 FACTEUR CHEVAL (Nap)
Trainer: Jerome Reynier – Jockey: Maxime Guyon
France can put down an early marker for their challengers by dominating the traditional opener, with FACTEUR CHEVAL preferred to BIG ROCK. Facteur Cheval stated his case for top honours in 2024 with his last-gasp success in the Dubai Turf at Meydan since when his training programme in Chantilly has been fine-tuned towards this one prize. He needs to turn around Queen Elizabeth II Stakes placings with Big Rock from Champions Day here last autumn but has developed both physically and mentally since then and is capable of doing so.
ROYAL SCOTSMAN benefitted from a change of tactics when he bolted up from the front in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom, looking that day something like the force of old. He remains a talented unit, but it’s a big ask for any horse to make all the running in this much more competitive Group 1.
CHARYN had Royal Scotsman well behind him when chasing home AUDIENCE in the Lockinge, and with that also has to be respected as a major player.
Prediction: 1st FACTEUR CHEVAL, 2nd Big Rock, 3rd Royal Scotsman, 4th Charyn
Race 2 COVENTRY STAKES (Group 2)
No9 COWARDOFTHECOUNTY (Each Way)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien – Jockey: D McMonagle
Kodi Bear colt COWARDOFTHECOUNTY had Norfolk Stakes favourite Whistlejacket behind him when delivering at the first time of asking in a Curragh maiden and that form is impossible to knock. He’s nicely drawn in the middle of the course which leaves his jockey with options of which furrow to plough.
His compatriot CAMILLE PISSARRO is closely matched with MIDNIGHT STRIKE from the Marble Hill Stakes which makes it short aggregate odds that the winner will have the name ‘O’Brien’ next to it. That contest has traditionally proved a good sighter for the Coventry.
If the race is to go to the home contingent Paul Cole’s ARRAN could be the one to achieve it. The Havana Grey colt impressed on his Newmarket introduction and has been working like a proper Group horse at Whatcombe. His chance is boosted by the high strike rate of his stable.
Prediction: 1st COWARDOFTHECOUNTY, 2nd Arran, 3rd Camille Pissarro, 4th Midnight Strike
Race 3 KING CHARLES III STAKES (Group 1)
No5 REGIONAL (Each Way)
Trainer: Ed Bethell – Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
ASFOORA represents a depleted Australian challenge on a race the Antipodeans usually dominate. The mare has bagged over 1 million dollars at home and will have benefited from her placed run behind KERDOS in the Temple Stakes at Haydock.
The domestic sprint division, led by Breeders’ Cup winner BIG EVS, isn’t as strong as it has been, and while Kerdos is titled to go well his stablemate DILIGENT HARRY can also have a say. He claimed a cheque behind California Spangle in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai and went down in a blanket finish to the Group 2 Duke Of York when beaten a quarter of a length into third by Mill Stream.
TWILIGHT CALLS hasn’t looked as good as he was but boasts a good record in this race. Second to the superb Nature Strip in 2022, he finished fourth behind Bradsell 12 months ago. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock on the planet were he to bounce back from his defeat in the Palace House Stakes.
Ed Bethell is proving adept with his handling of sprinters and may have the key to this with REGIONAL. The six-year-old is a much-improved performer who will enjoy the drying ground, and as a winner of three of his last five outings is as upwardly mobile as you can get. He only narrowly missed out in a Curragh Group 2 last time, and looks like a horse that will have more to offer.
Prediction: 1st REGIONAL, 2nd Asfoora, 3rd Diligent Harry, 4th Twilight Calls
Race 4 ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES (Group 1)
No7 ROSALLION
Trainer: Richard Hannon – Jockey: Sean Levey
NOTABLE SPEECH posted what at the time was a minor shock when landing the 2,000 Guineas, in the process extending his unbeaten sequence for owners Godolphin to four.
The Newmarket Classic runner-up ROSALLION went on to overcome a poor position two furlongs out to pass almost the entire field to land the Irish equivalent at the Curragh. The son of Blue Point traded short in running at Newmarket and now has the chance to prove the result wrong. He’s been in sensational form at home, and granted some racing real estate in the closing stages can again swoop to conquer.
Aidan O’Brien has promised a better showing from HENRY LONGFELLOW than was the case when the Dubawi colt lost his unbeaten record in the French 2,000 Guineas at Longchamp. Should that materialise he will need to turn the tables on the Mario Baratti-trained winner of that Classic, METROPOLITAN.
Prediction: 1st ROSALLION, 2nd Notable Speech, 3rd Henry Longfellow, 4th Metropolitan
Race 5 ASCOT STAKES HANDICAP
No10 ZANNDABAD (Each Way)
Trainer: Mrs C O’Leary – Jockey: William Buick
From a betting perspective, I’m looking forward to this race more than anything else. Two years ago PIED PIPER cost me bundles under a dubious ride, but the dual-purpose performer still has Jamie Spencer in his saddle. Gordon Elliott has laid the six-year-old out for this, and fit from a hurdling campaign he figures to be a player. Spencer may again ride his luck and wait for gaps to open, which is great when they do. It must be short odds that Ireland take out the contest from its contingent of seven.
MY LYKA is bound to be popular for the Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore combination, while BOHER ROAD rates a dangerous hat-trick seeker. ZANNDABAD is even more interesting granted how well he performed in the Chester Cup. His trainer has engaged William Buick who rarely makes mistakes in staying races.
The five-year-old appeals as the most likely winner, with both KYLE OF LOCHALSH and PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE strongly fancied to get into the argument for home trainers Sir Mark Prescott and Hughie Morrison.
Prediction: 1st ZANNDABAD, 2nd Pied Piper, 3rd Pledgeofallegiance, 4th Tenerife Sunshine, 5th Kyle Of Lochalsh
Race 6 WOLFERTON STAKES (Listed)
No9 ISRAR (Each Way)
Trainer: John Gosden – Jockey: Jim Crowley
ISRAR has progressed from race to race this season and has the look of a horse who is ready to pick up a decent pot. The Muhaarar colt ran Passenger to a length and a half in the Huxley Stakes and if returning at the same level should definitely enjoy a piece of the action.
Cambridgeshire winner ASTRO KING has hinted that he’s at least a Listed class horse and needs including in the mix while BOTANICAL was impressive in taking out a Class2 handicap at York and looks a Pattern horse in Chrysalis, who could easily bloom into that here.
The John Gosden-trained TORITO did nothing wrong when taking home a minor cheque in Liberty Lane’s race at Newmarket from which he looks bound to progress. He has good form on differing types of ground but CERTAIN LAD has disappointed on the couple of occasions he’s run on a faster surface. He’s in terrific form but the change going tempers my enthusiasm a little.
Prediction: 1st ISRAR, 2nd Astro King, 3rd Botanical, 4th Torito, 5th Certain Lad
Race 7 COPPER HORSE HANDICAP
No9 FOX JOURNEY (Each Way)
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute – Jockey: Ryan Moore
At the start of the season FOX JOURNEY was put up to me as a horse I needed to be with from Stoute’s Freemason Lodge operation. The son of ill-fated Roaring Lion duly delivered on reappearance at Newmarket where he came home 11 lengths clear of his closest rival. He’s considered better than a Class3 horse and can prove it with a victory over a posse of Irish challengers.
A PIECE OF HEAVEN might prove the best of those on a first start for Joseph O’Brien but it would surely be folly to ignore Willie Mullins’s runner BELLOCIO, who powered home on his jumps debut when last seen at Punchestown in May, and could be anything.
Prediction: 1st FOX JOURNEY, 2nd A Piece Of Heaven, 3rd Belloccio, 4th Alkasib, 5th Party Central
