Traditionally one of the most competitive handicaps at the Festival, the Pertemps Final Hurdle offers plenty of each-way value.
Trends Analysis: Pertemps Final Hurdle
Positive Trends:
- Last 12 winners were aged 8 or younger
- 9/16 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
- 11/23 were from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 12/13 were rated 138 or higher
- 12/17 were rated between 132-142 (inc)
- 11/13 were rated between 138-148
- 12/19 had won over at least 2 miles 7 furlongs
- 9/12 had fewer than 11 times over hurdles
- 6/11 had run fewer than 8 times over hurdles
- 8/10 returned 12/1 or shorter
- 8/23 had won their last race
- 6/8 ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 7/8 wore a tongue-tie
- 7/8 winners Irish-trained
- 6/8 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
- 3/15 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
- Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins, and Pipe-trained runners
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
- Respect horses with headgear (8 since 2000)
Negative Trends
- Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
- Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
- Since 2000 only 1 winner did not have a run that calendar year
- 5-year-olds have won just twice since 1973
- Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
- Only 2 winning favourites in last 18 years
- Just 1 winner in the last 41 years aged 10+
- Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One 3rd and two 2nds in the last 10 runnings)
- Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single figures are just 3 from 50.
ICARE ALLEN is owned by the legendary JP McManus, and he has a strong record in this race. Willie Mullins also has a good record in the race, but Icare Allen needs to improve to win this; however, in his favour is the fact that he does meet a number of the trends.
CUTHBERT DIBBLE has a strong winning strike rate, including 2/2 this season, and comes from Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable, which boasts a decent record in this race. The concern is that he had a really hard race last time only 26 days ago, and does not have any headgear on, which is a negative in terms of trends.
MONMIRAL is a horse who looks really well set for this particular three-mile handicap test. Paul Nicholls does not have the best record in this race, but recently has had three places in the last ten runnings.
Monmiral looks to be too big a price in this company for a race such as this and might sneak into one of the places under Harry Cobden, who might enjoy himself more on a less-fancied ride.
There are a number of Irish runners including CLEATUS POOLAW and GAOTH CHUIL, which ran well in the Leopardstown qualifier at Christmas. Both, however, fall down on trends.
MILL GREEN at age 12 runs again here having placed for the last three renewals and has a claimer onboard which is a positive for a Nicky Henderson horse in a handicap. CHANTRY HOUSE should go well, as his course record is excellent.
Based on the trends alone however, each-way bets on both Springwell Bay and Monmiral and even though we’re ignoring the recent Irish dominance, at the prices these two offer a great deal of value.
