Russell Henley won the biggest title of his career at Bay Hill last week, chipping in for an eagle at the 16th to surge past Collin Morikawa in one of the more dramatic finishes this year.
2025 US PGA Tour
The Players Championship
The Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Pointe Verde Beach, Florida
13th-16th March
Henley trailed Morikawa by three shots with five holes to play. But he mounted a comeback that would have made the King proud, setting himself up nicely for a shot at this week’s Players crown. Yes, the tour remains in Florida this week for the 3rd- and most esteemed- stop in the Florida Swing: the Players Championship. Known colloquially as the unofficial 5th major on the roster, the Players is one of the most celebrated events in golf. Some argue that this is still the top field in all of golf (though I believe the LIV defections probably tilt that debate slightly in favour of the major championships now). This week will mark the 52nd edition of the tour’s flagship event (the 2020 event was abandoned after 18 holes due to the pandemic).
Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, the Players began life in suitably illustrious fashion, with ‘Golden Bear’ Jack Nicklaus winning the first of his three titles in 1974 (he is still the only man to have won this event on three occasions). In fact, only six players in the event’s history have won it on multiple occasions. And there are more than a few ways to tame this beast, with bombers and plotters alike tasting victory on this classical test: the likes of JT and McIlroy are joined by Webb Simpson and Tim Clark on the winner’s rollcall. This has always been one of the most difficult events to predict because it is such a well-rounded test. Every facet of your game needs to be working to succeed at TPC Sawgrass. Having said all that, I think the tour’s decision to switch the event back to March six years ago has proved advantageous to the bigger hitters. There is less roll on the fairways and the ball doesn’t penetrate the air as easily, giving the guys with greater carry a real advantage.
Purpose-built to host this flagship event, the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is a true Pete Dye masterwork. This classical Bermuda beauty is a shot-maker’s paradise, with dog-legged holes that drift in both directions. This obviously puts an onus on the player’s ability to shape the ball both ways (little wonder Tiger has won here twice). It’s crucial that players can find these smaller-than-average TIfEagle Bermuda greens. To illustrate that, the ten winners between 2005 and 2014 averaged 7.5 in GIR. Also, players will need to scramble effectively when they do invariably miss these small green complexes. The trio of closing holes can make or break your tournament, with water lurking menacingly at every corner. The par-3 17th is probably the most intimidating wedge in all of golf (that island green looks so tiny encased in that body of water). Also, I may be inclined to look for players who have enjoyed success on other Pete Dye layouts (Harbour Town, Kiawah, etc).
Scottie Scheffler created history here last season, becoming the first man in history to win the Players in back-to-back years. The World No.1 will now be looking to become just the 2nd man in
history to win the event on three occasions (the other man being Jack Nicklaus). Scheffler just needs that putter to warm up! Rory McIlroy has struggled since winning the title here back in 2019, missing the cut in two of his last four attempts. The Pebble Beach champ was poor off the tee at Bay Hill and could be one to swerve this week. Collin Morikawa doesn’t have much of a record here and was once again disappointing in contention at Bay Hill. Still, he is one of the best iron players in the world and it’s surely a matter of time until he finally contends here. Xander Schauffele looked rusty at Bay Hill and will be pleased to be teeing it up at TPC Sawgrass (he is a two-time runner-up in this event). Elsewhere, the likes of Justin Thomas and Ludvig Aberg will be looking to capitalize on their strong recent form.
Past Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20)
2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
2022: Cam Smith (-13)
2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
2020: no event
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (9/2), Rory McIlroy (17/2), Collin Morikawa (14/1), Ludvig Aberg (16/1), Juston Thomas (18/1)
Value Bets
Hideki Matsuyama- To Win (28/1)
I really like the look of Hideki Matsuyama this week. The 11-time PGA Tour winner started his season in spectacular fashion, breaking all kinds of records en route to his victory at the Sentry. He hasn’t cracked a top ten since but has nonetheless played quite consistent golf, finishing in the top 25 on four occasions. Matsuyama knows what it takes to get around Sawgrass, finishing T6 or better in each of the last two seasons. He ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Total and 13th in one-putt percentage. His improved putting and strong iron play should make him an ideal candidate for success this week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout- To Win (100/1)
South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout could be one to watch in the place markets. He has an excellent record at TPC Sawgrass, finishing in a tie for 13th in each of the last two seasons. He also arrives in solid form, picking up two top 20 finishes in four starts on tour (including a T4 at the
Phoenix Open). Bezuidenhout hits plenty of fairways and currently ranks 3rd on tour for Strokes Gained: Putting.
The Man to Beat- Collin Morikawa- To Win (14/1)
As I noted earlier, Morikawa hasn’t exactly lit this event up over the years. But he was 3rd at the halfway point in 2023 and I think this could be his year to truly contend. He just finished runner-up at Bay Hill (a course where he had previously struggled in the past). In fact, he has now finished runner-up in two of four events this season. Sure, he hasn’t won since the 2023 Zozo Championship. But he is too much of a class act to stay winless for much longer. He is one of the best iron players in the world, ranking 5th for Approach at Bay Hill. He fell back a bit with the flat-stick but has the ability to bounce back this week.
