It’s that time of year again, where players- much like Dorothy skipping down the Yellow Brick Road- head down Magnolia Lane in search of adventure.
I invoke the Wizard of Oz because there’s an undeniable magic to Augusta National, something that separates it from virtually every other golf tournament in the world. Also, both the Wizard of Oz and Masters revolve around one magical sartorial item. Dorothy’s red shoes grant her passage to the land of Oz while Augusta’s Green Jacket sends players on the path to superstardom. The only major championship to be played at the same venue every single season, the Masters clings to tradition like Gollum clings to the precious. I used to think the excessive pageantry was elitist nonsense (calling spectators ‘patrons’ instead of fans will always rankle me). But I have grown more partial to it since becoming disillusioned with the frat-boy hooliganism that has crept into other corners of the tour.
A Brief History
All the extended Masters mythos can be traced back to one man: the iconic Bobby Jones. Famed for his refusal to turn professional, Jones always envisaged building the ideal course for when he had retired from the game. Working in conjunction with wealthy investment banker Clifford Roberts and famed architect Alistair McKenzie, Jones set about turning his dream into a reality. In 1931, Jones purchased the picturesque Fruitland Nurseries in Augusta, Georgia (hence the botanical monikers for all the holes). The Augusta National Course was opened in 1933 and the first edition of the Masters- then called the Augusta National Invitation Tournament- was played in 1934. It wasn’t the most auspicious of starts, with just 76 paid-up members instead of the proposed 1800. Inaugural winner Horton Smith had to wait for 17 club members to club together to receive his winnings (sounds like something out of a Godfather film).
The Course
To be honest, Dr Alistair Mackenzie and Bobby Jones would likely not recognize Augusta in its current state. The famed course has been tinkered with incessantly over the years, with the old Bermuda greens replaced by creeping bentgrass in 1981 (players have that decision to thank for the lightening-quick putting surfaces). Tom Fazio completed the last extensive overhaul of Augusta back in 2002, with more than half of the holes tightened and lengthened. The course has been tinkered with since, with several holes invariably lengthened to combat the DeChambeau’s of this world. The course features plenty of dog-legged holes and is kept in supreme condition. The CBS coverage- accompanied by that soothing Augusta theme- gives the event an almost spiritual dimension.
What it takes to conquer Augusta
Take one look at the recent winners and you can certainly see a trend towards the bombers. Measuring at 7,555 yards, Augusta is a real beast. The fairways all also cut towards the tee-boxes, meaning that players aren’t going to get much rollout (which just adds to the length). The fairways are quite wide, and the trees are well established, adding to the grip-it and rip-it trend. Guys who get it out there and can attack the par 5’s certainly have an advantage. However, distance is still not the chief bellwether of success around Augusta. A good short game is crucial to success around Augusta, with severe runoff areas and undulations placing an onus on scrambling and putting (though the putting surfaces can be a bit of a leveller). But there is one facet of your game that simply must be in tiptop shape to succeed around Augusta: approach-play. 15 of the last 19 winners have ranked inside the top seven for GIR. Players with exceptional approach play can mitigate the serpentine undulations of these bentgrass green complexes. This is also a course that rewards familiarity, with Fuzzy Zoeller being the last player to win on debut all the way back in 1979.
The Tiger Effect
I think it’s important to quickly clear the Tiger air. Arguably the most important figure in the history of the sport, Woods’ recent vehicular drama has cast a bit of a shadow over the year’s first major championship. Look, Tiger’s mere presence is still enough to move the needle at any tournament. I just feel like we are at the point where there’s enough intrigue to get by just fine without Tiger’s weekly pill-induced melodrama. World No.1 Scottie Scheffler will be fighting for a 3rd Green Jacket while Rory McIlroy will be looking to become the first man to defend his Masters crown since, ahem, Tiger Woods in 2002 (there’s no escaping him). Let’s be real, this year’s renewal is going to have to go a long way to match last year’s spectacle. In fact, nothing short of an alien abduction is going to approach the drama of witnessing Rory finally clinch the coveted Career Grand Slam. Scheffler hasn’t been at his indomitable best this season while Rory has been nursing a back issue. They are also far from the only shows in town this week.
Other storylines
The two rock stars of LIV golf- Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm- look set to be major factors in this year’s Augusta narrative. DeChambeau choked in contention last season but has looked in imperious form in recent weeks, winning back-to-back LIV titles. Rahm won the Green Jacket in 2023 and currently leads LIV’s individual points standings. The two-time major winner is approaching the form that made him a perennial major contender a few years back. Elsewhere, the likes of Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are gearing up nicely for their first tilt at the title. From a European perspective, Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood look set to join Rahm in contention (while Robert Macintyre could be a bit of a dark horse). Considering Augusta’s idiosyncratic nature, it’s always worthwhile to look at course specialists such as Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth. All in all, this is shaping up to be an absolute classic.
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (5/1), Bryson DeChambeau (10/1), Rory McIlroy (11/1), Jon Rahm (11/1), Ludvig Aberg (14/1), Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Past Winners
2025: Rory McIlroy (-11) *playoff
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
Value Bets
Cameron Young- To Win (20/1)
The last two winners of the Players- Scheffler and McIlroy- have gone on to claim the Green Jacket. I think that Cameron Young has the chance to make it a rare hat-trick. The big-hitting American was long considered the American Fleetwood, requiring 94 starts to claim his first win at last year’s Wyndham Championship (a period which seven runner-up finishes). The floodgates have officially opened, as Young captured the biggest title of his career at TPC Sawgrass. He has revolutionized his putting and should be more of a factor at Augusta (where he has schizophrenic form figures of MC-7-9-MC). He has the power and improved short-game to possibly tame Augusta.
Collin Morikawa- To Win (33/1)
One of the elite iron players in the world, Morikawa has finally rediscovered the type of approach play that saw him claim two major championships. Morikawa currently dominates the tour on approach, sitting 1st in SG: Approach and 3rd in GIR. He has looked deadly in his last three outings, bringing form figures of 1-T7-5 into Augusta National (the win coming at Pebble Beach). Despite his natural fade, Morikawa has enjoyed a healthy record down Magnolia Lane, picking up three successive top-10 finishes between 2022-2024 (highlighted by a T3 in 2023).
Chris Gotterup- To Win (50/1)
I know it’s risky picking a debutant (flies in the face of convention around here). But there’s something about Gotterup’s swaggering style that makes me think he could defy the odds. Just look at the way he tore through last year’s links jaunt, winning on debut at the Scottish Open before finishing T4 in his Open Championship debut. He doesn’t seem to care for convention. He is the only multiple winner on this year’s US PGA Tour, claiming the Sony and Phoenix Open titles. One of the biggest hitters on tour, Gotterup should be able to pulverize Augusta’s par 5’s. He is fresh off a T6 finish in Houston and won’t have any fear out there.
The Man to Beat- Bryson DeChambeau- To Win (10/1)
This just feels like DeChambeau’s year. The burly American has everything it takes to win around Augusta, with 5th and 6th placed finishes in each of his last two seasons. He has shown uncharacteristic sloppiness in contention at Augusta, perhaps guilty of trying to overpower the course when a gentler touch would suffice. But he arrives in splendid form, winning each of his last two LIV outings to show that he means business. He may not be everyone’s cup of tea (boisterous, cocky Americans aren’t exactly a great look right now). But you cannot deny his ability. And with Scheffler and McIlroy both experiencing issues, this could be his time.
