I wonder if Rory McIlroy can already hear that Masters music playing in the distance? The Northern Irish superstar created history yesterday, becoming the first European golfer to win multiple Players Championships after his playoff victory over JJ Spaun.
2025 US PGA Tour
Valspar Championship
Copperhead Resort, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida
20th-23rd March
Spaun capitulated in their three-hole playoff, allowing McIlroy to play stress-free gold en route to his 2nd PGA Tour victory of the season. McIlroy- still seeking that elusive career slam- will go into the upcoming Masters in better shape than ever before: he has never previously won multiple titles in the lead-in to golf’s first major. The tour moves on to the next leg in the Florida Swing: the Valspar Championship. The event had modest origins, debuting in 2000 as an opposite field event played in the latter portion of the season. The event got a new lease of life 18 years ago, moved forward in the schedule and incorporated into the Florida Swing. The 2020 event was lost to the pandemic while the 2021 edition was hosted in May. This should be an entertaining week as we build inexorably towards Augusta National (which is less than a month away now).
Copperhead Course was designed by Larry Packard and opened for business in 1974. It has undergone various facelifts over the years (the last of which coming after the 2015 renewal). This is an exacting tree-lined test that features plenty of undulations and sneaky doglegs. The final three holes- colloquially known as the Snake Pit- cold prove decisive come Sunday afternoon. Driving metrics aren’t overly important this week (though finding certain portions of the fairway could prove important when attacking these small Bermuda greens). This is a quintessential second-shot course and GIR will prove a vital stat this week (it’s little wonder that a player like Paul Casey was successful here). In fact, 15 of the 23 course winners have finished inside the top 11 for GIR. This was once regularly ranked as the hardest par 71 on the entire PGA Tour. It has played slightly easier in recent seasons, with Sam Burns twice finishing with a 17-under-par score. Having said that, Peter Malnati won in a 12-under-par score last season.
Justin Thomas gave his supporters some whiplash last weekend, recovering from a disastrous opening 78 to tie the course record with a 62 on Friday. Thomas couldn’t really build on the momentum but will nonetheless go into this week with plenty of confidence. There is a strong European contingent this, with the likes of Fleetwood, Lowry and Straka eager for some post-Players success. Xander Schauffele has struggled since returning from injury, finishing stone-last amongst players to have made the cut at TPC Sawgrass. Could this be his week to truly shake off the rust? Elsewhere, former champions such as Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth will be eager to hone their skills ahead of Augusta. Also, the likes of Corey Conners and Lucas Glover will look to build on their brilliant showings at TPC Sawgrass.
Past Winners
2024: Peter Malnati (-12)
2023: Tyler Moore (-10)
2022: Sam Burns (-17) *playoff
2021: Sam Burns (-17)
2020: no event
2019: Paul Casey (-8)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Justin Thomas (12/1), Tommy Fleetwood (14/1), Xander Schauffele (18/1), Sepp Straka (20/1), Corey Conners (22/1)
Value Bets
Lucas Glover- To Win (35/1)
In 2023, Lucas Glover became only the 3rd player in his 40’s to win back-to-back titles on tour (at the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championships). I use that stat to illustrate the fact that Glover has it in him to perform in back-to-back weeks. The former US Open champ came from nowhere last week, missing out on a playoff by two shots to finish T3 at TPC Sawgrass. Glover has missed three cuts this year (though he also finished in a tie for 3rd at Pebble Beach). He finished 11th here last year and his game just suits the profile of this course. Glover currently ranks 4th on tour for Driving Accuracy and 28th for SG: Approach. This is a slightly weaker field and Glover could exploit that.
Matt Wallace- To Win (90/1)
Matt Wallace has been in desperate form of late, missing the cut in three of his last five events. He did bounce back slightly last week, finishing in a tie for 26th at Puerto Rico. He really needs a boost if he wishes to qualify for his first ever Ryder Cup. A 12-time worldwide winner, Wallace does have some solid Innisbrook form to his name, finishing T7 in 2023 and T17 last year. This is quite an idiosyncratic layout, and his course experience could give him a chance of coming through in the place markets.
The Man to Beat- Will Zalatoris- To Win (25/1)
Sure, Zalatoris is yet to record a top ten finish this season. But he finished T11 at the American Express and comes into this event off the back of three successive top 30 finishes. Zalatoris was bang in contention last week until an awful back-nine wrecked his chances on Saturday. Still, Zalatoris is statistically tracking well, finishing 6th and 13th for SG: Approach at Bay Hill and Sawgrass respectively. Also, he gained 3.475 strokes putting last week (which has been his nemesis in the past). Sure, he has never competed at Copperhead in the past. But that didn’t stop
the likes of Cam Young and Viktor Hovland from competing here in recent seasons. An accomplished iron player, Zalatoris feels like great value in the upper reaches of this market.
