2023 Open champ Brian Harman took the plaudits at TPC San Antonio, holding on in inclement weather to beat runner-up Ryan Gerard by three strokes.
2025 US PGA Tour
Masters Tournament
Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
10th-13th April
2023 Open champ Brian Harman took the plaudits at TPC San Antonio, holding on in inclement weather to beat runner-up Ryan Gerard by three strokes. It was Harman’s first victory since defying expectations at Royal Liverpool. There were striking similarities with his Open Championship win, as howling winds turned the weekend into a complete grind-fest (which suits the fairway-finder to a tee). It was an interesting appetizer for what is sure to be one of the biggest weeks of the year: the Masters (I can hear that beguiling Masters telecast music already). Arguably one of the most iconic events in all of sport, the annual trip to Augusta feels like a time capsule, where the traditional golfing establishment still reigns supreme. LIV could organize a golfing event in the heart of an active volcano: the battles for the Green Jacket and Claret Jug would still be the most keenly contested golf tournaments in the world. Speaking of LIV, the breakaway tour is still yet to strike a deal with the PGA Tour (even with US President Donald Trump throwing his weight behind it). Still, there appear to be some minor signs of progress, with new LIV CEO Scott O’Neil extended an invitation to this week’s Masters.
This venerated tournament dates back to the early days of the Depression and was originally known as the Augusta National Invitation Tournament (the Masters has a snappier ring to it). Horton Smith won the inaugural staging way back in 1936 (he was made to wait while 17 club members kicked in to assemble the purse). That flies in the face of today’s mercenary approach to the game. In any event, this is one of the few tournaments where cash isn’t a primary source of motivation. Everyone out there wants to get their hands on the most famous sartorial item in all of sport: the coveted Green Jacket. A 12-man LIV contingent will be doubly motivated this week, with precious world ranking points on the line. With legal disputes still ongoing, a strong performance here can help ensure future participation at Major Championships (though the US Open and Open Championships have given direct access to LIV players via its season-long points list). Another quirk of this event is that it’s the only Major to take place at the same venue every year: Augusta National.
Originally the brainchild of the legendary Bobby Jones, Augusta was founded by Jones and investment banker Clifford Roberts. It was built on the site of an old nursery, and every hole bears a botanical nickname. The entrance to the course- lovingly referred to as Magnolia Lane- is flanked by a string of imposing Magnolia trees. The course was designed by Jones and famed golf-course architect Alister Mackenzie. But I doubt either would recognize Augusta if they could see it now. The old Bermuda greens have been completely replaced with Bentgrass. And the course has been lengthened and tightened considerably over the years (Tom Fazio oversaw a massive overhaul in 2002, with half the holes lengthened and tightened). This is a long, intimidating tree-lined beauty that tests very facet of a player’s game. Recent years seem to suggest that distance has become more important than accuracy around Augusta.
Putting at Augusta is almost a leveller, because every player will have their issues on these notoriously slippery Bentgrass greens. I don’t put much stock into putting indexes this week: the most crucial stats will be GIR and Scrambling (the traditional bellwethers of success around Augusta). Solid approach play is essential around this course. Players need to negotiate massively contoured greens that require surgical iron play. Strong approaches should also help minimize the impact of these lightning putting surfaces. Scrambling has always proved crucial at Augusta (it’s little wonder that Phil Mickelson has been so incredible around here). There are massive runoff areas that put players into awkward greenside positions. The champion here generally must have every facet of his game working to some degree (that’s what makes Augusta such a masterpiece). There has been some rain about, but it is expected to dry out by tee-off. This year’s test could be quite stern, with cooler conditions expected on the weekend.
Though he hasn’t won since December’s Hero World Challenge, defending champ Scottie Scheffler looks deliciously poised for a 3rd Masters title in four years. He competed in his last outing, finishing just one shot behind Min Woo Lee at the Houston Open. He is a tee-to-green machine who just perfectly suits this exacting layout. But perhaps the most engrossing narrative of the week belongs to Rory McIlroy. The Northern Irish superstar has been in scintillating form this season, winning at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass. Victory here would not only complete the much-vaunted career Grand Slam, but it would also mean he had won titles at arguably the three most famous US golf courses in the same year. Can he overcome all the recent Major Championship heartbreak (his capitulation at Pinehurst No.2 must still sting a bit).
The LIV practitioners are a formidable force this year. Bryson DeChambeau fell away quite badly at last week’s LIV event hosted at Doral, missing practically every putt on Sunday in contention. Still, the burly American has exactly the sort of power-based game that should theoretically prosper here. Two-time runner-up Brooks Koepka is a perennial Major contender who came close to victory in Singapore a few weeks back. Joaquin Niemann has won twice on LIV this season and has received an invitation from Augusta. Jon Rahm is an interesting proposition. The 2022 Augusta champ is yet to win this year but has still managed to keep up his incredible record of securing top ten finishes in every single LIV event in which he has played. He showed some incredible touch at Doral and looks primed for another title tilt. Elsewhere, former Augusta champ Sergio Garcia is also lurking menacingly after a series of impressive results.
Returning to the non-LIV fraternity, two-time Major champ Xander Schauffele is ghosting under the radar after a rib injury caused him to miss a few events earlier this year. There are plenty of former champions in the field, with the likes of Jordan Speith and Hideki Matsuyama looking to recapture former glory. One man who will unfortunately not be in the field this week is Tiger Woods. The 15-time Major champion has been cursed by injury in recent years, rupturing an Achilles tendon in March. Regardless of form, you always feel that Tiger can tap into some magic at Augusta (as evidenced by his spellbinding victory back in 2019). Elsewhere, the likes of Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood will be eager to capture a maiden Major Championship title.
Past Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (9/2), Rory McIlroy (13/2), Collin Morikawa (14/1), Jon Rahm (14/1), Bryson DeChambeau (16/1)
Value Bets
Shane Lowry- To Win (30/1)
Shane Lowry is exactly the type of short-game wizard that should thrive at Augusta. The Irishman has played well here in the past, finishing in the top 25 on four occasions. He finished 3rd back in 2022, taking just one more shot than Scheffler over the last 54 holes. He is trending wonderfully from a statistical perspective, finishing in the top 15 in approach in each of his last four events. He is looking good in the season-long stats, currently sitting 4th for Tee-to-Green and 6th for Approach. He has been in solid form of late, with form figures of 2-39-11-7-20-8 since February. The 2019 Open Champion has plenty of flair and should thrive in those tricky greenside runoff areas.
Sepp Straka- To Win (55/1)
Sepp Straka looks incredibly undervalued this week. The Austrian is currently ranked 13th in the world and has been one of the best players on tour this year (he ranks 7th for SG: Tee-to-Green and 5th for SG: Approach). The Ryder Cupper has already won this year and has finished inside the top seven in two Signature Events. He also has a decent Augusta record, making the cut in all three of his visits (including a career-best T16 last year). He finished T2 at the 2023 Open and I really like him in the place markets this week.
The Man to Beat- Rory McIlroy- To Win (13/2)
It’s always a risk backing Rory in a major (there’s a part of you that expects a calamity around the corner). I can still vividly remember his 2011 collapse, where he shot 80 in the final round after going into Sunday with a four-stroke lead! But something feels different this year. This will be the first time that Rory arrives at Augusta with two PGA Tour victories under his belt (he won at Pebble
Beach and TPC Sawgrass). He finished well in his last outing, shooting 65-64 on the weekend to finish in a tie for 4th at Houston.
Other Bets
Top Englishman- Justin Rose (9/2)
English veteran Juston Rose showed how dangerous he can be in a major at last year’s Open Championship, narrowly missing out to Xander Schauffele in a gripping final day at Royal Troon. He has been in erratic form this season but boasts top ten finishes at Pebble Beach and Bay Hill. He is a past Masters specialist, finishing in the top 25 14 times in 19 attempts (including two runner-up finishes).
Top Left-Handed Player- Phil Mickelson (4/1)
This is a bold pick considering we have an abundance of talented lefties out there this year (Harman, Bhatia, McIntyre). This is just a safe, horses-for-courses pick. A three-time Masters champ, Mickelson is fresh off a solid solo 6th at Doral last week. He finished solo 3rd at Hong Kong earlier this year and he doesn’t even need to be in great form to compete here (as evidenced by his T2 finish in 2023).
Top LIV Golfer- Sergio Garcia- (12/1)
This just looks like fantastic value. Former Masters champ Sergio Garcia arrives in terrific form, sitting 2nd in the LIV Golf individual standings (he won in Hong Kong and finished solo 3rd at Doral last week). The Spaniard has played poorly here in recent seasons, missing the cut in five of his last six visits. But he appears to have found a new lease on life, clearly motivated by the possibility of making yet another Ryder Cup side.
