The entire golfing world will be laser-focused on Oakmont this week, wondering if anyone can stop the indomitable Scottie Scheffler from winning his 4th Major Championship.
2025 US PGA Tour
Major Championship Golf
US Open
Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania
12th-15th June
The entire golfing world will be laser-focused on Oakmont this week, wondering if anyone can stop the indomitable Scottie Scheffler from winning his 4th Major Championship. But we must take a moment to focus on last week’s incredible RBC Canadian Open climax. Google searches will have you believe that Rory McIlroy’s missed cut was the dominant narrative (and perhaps they are right). But that was honestly one of the most exciting endings in recent PGA Tour history, with Ryan Fox holing an incredible 20-footer on the last to set up a playoff with Sam Burns. The New Zealander held his nerve, securing his 2nd title in a month after a wonderful 2nd shot set up an eagle opportunity on the 4th playoff hole (he two-putted to take the title). It was an insanely entertaining day, with players peppering the flagsticks with almost comical ease. This coming week will offer a stunning departure from last week’s target golf conditions, with players set to tackle the toughest test on the golfing calendar: the US Open.
First staged way back in 1895, this will be the 125th staging of the US Open. The inaugural edition- which was a 36-hole event- was won by Englishman Horace Rawlins. It has been staged as a 72-hole stroke-play event since 1898. This event was entrenched as the year’s 2nd Major Championship until the ingenious calendar reshuffle back in 2019 (it is now the year’s penultimate Major Championship). But the defining characteristic of this event has always been its exacting nature. The USGA have developed a well-earned reputation for being the most sadistic tournament organizers in world golf. Since 2000, there have only been four winning scores that have hit double-digits under par. 2023 was an anomaly, with Wyndham Clark winning at a slightly more forgiving Los Angeles Country Club. Pinehurst No.2 cranked up the sadism once again last year, with McIlroy collapsing in dramatic fashion to hand DeChambeau his 2nd US Open title. This year the tournament moves to arguably the toughest course in American golf: Oakmont Country Club.
Founded in 1903, Oakmont was the only golf course designed by Henry Fownes (a quality over quantity type of guy). Famed for its brutal difficulty, Oakmont has become the USGA’s favourite torture chamber over the years (this will be the record-extending 10th US Open hosted at Oakmont). Known for its massive Church Pew bunkers, Oakmont has produced several tantalizing US Open narratives over the years. Johnny Miller shot the first ever Major 63 to win by a stroke here in 1973. Ernie Els won a memorable renewal in 1994, withstanding Loren Roberts and Monty in a three-man Monday playoff (he saw off Roberts on the 2nd extra hole after beating Monty through 18). Angel Cabrera won the 2007 renewal here in a staggering five-over-par (yikes). DJ emerged victorious in the most recent US Open at Oakmont, finishing the event in four-under-par (he was one of only four men who finished under-par). All of the lore points towards one thing: this is a tough test of golf. A par 70 coming in at close to 7,400 yards, Oakmont requires you to be brilliant from tee to green. The fairways are narrow and the rough is juicy.
The small sample size of stats suggest that distance is probably beneficial to accuracy this week (which has become the norm for these dried-out US Opens setups). I just think players would rather be in the rough with a wedge then be hitting 5-iron from certain parts of the fairway. These greens are firm and there’s no guarantee you are going to find them from the fairway (particularly with all the subtle swells out there). But I honestly think that putting could prove more prevalent than usual this year. Restoration specialist Gil Hanse tinkered with this majestic layout in 2023, restoring the Poa Annua greens to their original, massive size. These greens are going to run at over 14 on the stimp and there are an ocean of slopes out there. Solid approach play will help but avoiding three-putts could prove crucial. I watched Bryson miss a three-foot breaker when playing Oakmont on his YouTube channel. I just think these larger putting surfaces are going to put a real onus on putting.
World No.1 Scottie Scheffler is the man to beat his week. Sure, Bryson has developed a reputation as a bit of a US Open specialist, almost revelling in the masochistic difficulty of these setups. But Scheffler is just on another level right now, winning three of his last four starts (including that 3rd Major Championship at Quail Hollow). He is playing with the casual dominance of Nicklaus in his prime, controlling the ball from tee-to-green while barely making an error in judgement (which is a real recipe for success around Oakmont). He has improved immeasurably with the putter but these greens are notoriously slippery and could be a bit of a leveller. Still, I would put my house on him featuring on the leaderboard on Sunday. Rory McIlroy has been a spectral presence since completing the career Grand Slam, eschewing a few Signature Events while completely blanking the media. It’s weird considering the blanket adulation he received in the aftermath of his Augusta triumph. In any event, he arrives in poor form, failing to contend at Quail Hollow before missing last week’s cut. I think he’s one to avoid this week.
Of the LIV contingent, Bryson is the obvious standout player. Sure, Joaquin Niemann won his 4th LIV title of the season in Virgina this past week. But the Chilean tee-to-green monster just hasn’t pitched up in Major Championships (he picked up his maiden top ten finish at Quail Hollow last time out). Defending US Open champ Bryson DeChambeau is seemingly always in the hunt at the Majors and will be looking to claim a 3rd US Open this week. He is completely at ease in the Major Championship spotlight, using his hyper-analytical approach to deconstruct every facet of these challenging layouts. He contended in Virgina last week and looks perfectly poised for a tilt at this title. It will be interesting to see how Jon Rahm rebounds after that nightmarish closing stretch at Quail Hollow (he was tied for the lead with Scheffler at one point). A former US Open champ, Rahm certainly has the game to wear down this type of layout. But he just isn’t winning enough to confidently back against the likes of Scheffler and DeChambeau (top ten record be damned). Also, two-time US Open Brooks Koepka has been in iffy LIV form but must be respected on these testing USGA bogey-fests.
Two-time Major champ Xander Schauffele has been a bastion of consistency in recent US Opens and will go into this year’s test with little to no fanfare. Perhaps the reigning Open Champion will benefit from diminished expectations. Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas have been consistent presences on leaderboards and have to be respected. Ludvig Aberg is a tee-to-green demon who should theoretically be a perfect fit for this tough test. A runner-up on his Major debut at Augusta last year, Aberg hasn’t quite been able to live up to his reputation after winning in Torrey Pines earlier this year. Elsewhere, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry stand out amongst the remainder of the European contingent. I just hope this doesn’t turn into a wire-to-wire Scheffler romp. I would much prefer a McIlroy-esque maverick victory, with thrills and spills in equal measure. Scheffler’s recent victories- impressive as they have been- feel robotic by comparison.
Past Winners
2024: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2023: Wyndham Clark (-10)
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (5/2), Bryson DeChambeau (7/1), Rory McIlroy (10/1), Jon Rahm (12/1), Xander Schauffele (20/1)
Value Bets
Shane Lowry- To Win (45/1)
Shane Lowry is an intriguing option. Lowry has been in consistent form this season, picking up four top tens (including runner-up finishes at Pebble Beach and at the Truist Championship). He was bang-in contention last week but lost his way in the final round (he disappointed with the flatstick). Still, the 2019 Open champion has a solid body of recent form. Crucially, he led going into the final round at Oakmont nine years ago, ultimately settling for a T2 finish. He currently ranks 5th on tour for SG: Total, 2nd for SG: Approach and 24th in Scrambling. The greens could be an issue, but he could be decent value for a place this week.
Cameron Young- To Win (100/1)
It’s always a risky strategy to back someone who is yet to win on the PGA tour. I just think that Young could be one to watch in the place markets. He had a bit of a Van de Velde moment last week, duffing his chip from the rough on the 18th while in contention. Young ultimately bogeyed the 18th, finishing in tie for 4th (two shots back of Fox and Burns). Still, it was Young’s 3rd top 25 finish in four starts (he also finished T7 at the Truist Championship). He struggled in the early portion of the campaign, cut in five of his first nine events. But he appears to be improving of late, and he has often produced his best golf in Majors, picking up five top 10 finishes in four years. He currently ranks 22nd for Driving Distance and 16th for SG: Putting. He just needs to polish that approach play.
The Man to Beat- Xander Schauffele- To Win (20/1)
I feel like this represents excellent value in this market. Schauffele won two Majors last year, clearly demonstrating his ability to perform in trying conditions. In fact, he has been the most consistent US Open performer in the last decade, picking up seven straight top 15 finishes since 2017. He has the kind of steady temperament that can withstand the vagaries of US Open golf. Also, he currently ranks inside the top ten for proximity to the hole from 175-225 yards (a yardage that will be commonplace this week). He has picked up five straight top 28 finishes and appears to be edging towards the form that propelled him to two Majors last year.
Other Bets
Top Left-Handed Player- Brian Harman- (9/2)
Brian Harman hasn’t been in brilliant immediate form (his last top ten was a T3 finish at the RBC Heritage). Still, the 2023 Open Champ understands what it takes to compete on difficult courses (he finished T2 at the US Open at Erin Hills in 2017). I think his ability to keep it in the fairways could lead him to a comfy top 20 finish.
1st Round Leader- Justin Thomas- (40/1)
Justin Thomas has enjoyed a wonderful comeback season, picking up three runner-up finishes and a victory at the RBC Heritage. Thomas played here back in 2016, finishing in a respectable tie for 32nd as a 23-year-old. He has also tied two course records this season (at TPC Sawgrass and Harbour Town). He could be a guy who takes the early initiative (even if he struggles to maintain that momentum).
Top Australasian- Cameron Smith- (5/1)
Former Open champ Cam Smith underwhelmed in Virginia last week, ultimately settling for a T23 finish. Still, that result was preceded by three successive top ten finishes in LIV. Smith has played well in this tournament in the past, finishing T4 in 2015 and solo 4th at Los Angeles Country Club a few years back. His superior bunker-play should make him a formidable opponent this week.
