It would be somewhat unfair to call last week’s BMW Championship another boring Scottie Scheffler win. Sure, the reigning World No.1 ultimately took home the prize, securing his 5th PGA Tour title of the year.
2025 US PGA Tour
FedEx Cup Playoffs
The Tour Championship
East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia
21st-24th August
It would be somewhat unfair to call last week’s BMW Championship another boring Scottie Scheffler win. Sure, the reigning World No.1 ultimately took home the prize, securing his 5th PGA Tour title of the year. But Robert MacIntyre bombed on Sunday, squandering a four-shot lead against the New Jersey native. Scheffler appeared to have opened the door for MacIntyre with two bogeys on the back-nine. But Scheffler rose to the occasion in stupendous fashion on the 17th, chipping in for eagle to knock the collective stuffing out of the changing pack. Scheffler will be a clear favourite to win at East Lake and claim his 2nd successive FedEx Cup crown. However, he will not be enjoying any strokes advantage this year, with the PGA Tour opting for a controversial change of Tour Championship protocol. More on that a little later.
The season-ending Tour Championship has been a core part of the PGA Tour since its inception in 1987. Tom Watson won the inaugural staging of this event (back when it was known as the Nabisco Championship). The tournament was developed to celebrate the top 30 money earners of the PGA Tour season. But the event went through a definite lull, with the likes of Mickelson and Woods often choosing to skip the old Tour Championship. With the four Majors completed and the season essentially over, players didn’t really feel incentivized to participate. Enter the FedEx Cup era. The FedEx Cup Playoff series was born in 2007, offering ludicrous prizemoney and elevated season-ending stakes (though LIV Golf has usurped the PGA Tour in terms of mind-boggling prize-pools). The series originally consisted of four events until the Dell Technologies Championship was done away with.
In 2019, the tour implemented a new strokes-based system called the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes. It was basically a handicap system, whereby the most consistent players in any given season were rewarded with an advantage. And I was completely there for it. What’s the point if the 30th placed guy has an equal shot of victory as a guy who has won seven events throughout the season? But the PGA Tour have decided to revert back to a classical stroke-play format, with the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy bringing no advantage into this season-ending event. Say what you will about the old system, but it did feel like it rewarded those who had been exceptional all season. Can you imagine the optics of 30th paced Akshay Bhatia lifting the FedEx Cup crown cause after beating Scheffler this week? It’s absurd. Either way, the 30-man field unfortunately makes this one of the least attractive spectacles on the PGA Tor calendar. Non-American viewers- perhaps not well-versed in the sheer scale of advertising on American television- are made to suffer this week, with a seemingly endless barrage of adverts filling in the gaps in play. Alternatively, you may also find yourself watching endless footage of classic FedEx Cup moments. But I digress.
East Lake Golf Course is a celebrated Donald Ross masterpiece (though only the 2nd most iconic course in Georgia). It does have the distinction of being the oldest golf course in Atlanta, with legendary figure Bobby Jones making his bones on this layout. In fact, East Lake was the site of Jones’ first and final rounds (pretty cool). Architect Andrew Green oversaw renovations last season, with new Zorro Zoyisa fairways introduced to create firmer conditions. This is essentially a ball-striker’s dream (as evidenced by the list of winners below). Those who have thrived at East Lake tend to have a nice combination of distance and accuracy (think Schauffele or DJ). Players will also need to putt well from range, with large, undulating Bermuda greens to negotiate. The size of the greens put a real onus on precision approach play. Players need to know where to land their approach shots to leave them with manageable birdie putts: look for players with strong GIR stats.
Starting strokes or no starting strokes, Scottie Scheffler will start as an overwhelming favourite to claim this year’s FedEx Cup crown. Whether it’s a seven-stroke romp or a tense nailbiter, Scheffler is just a winning machine. The fact that he is so heavily favoured creates some solid opportunities towards the top of the betting market. A past East Lake specialist, Rory McIlroy will need to elevate his approach play if he stands any chance of competing this week. Could this be Tommy Fleetwood’s week to break his insane trophy drought? He has been in incredible form and there will only be 29 players to beat this week. Robert MacIntyre will be looking to bounce back after Sunday’s implosion while the likes of Russell Henley and J.J. Spaun will look to punctuate their respective campaigns.
Past Winners *with starting score and final score
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-10), (-30)
2023: Viktor Hovland (-8), (-28)
2022: Rory McIlroy (-4), (-21)
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-10), (-21)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-10), (-21)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (1.62/1), Rory McIlroy (7/1), Ludvig Aberg (14/1), Tommy Fleetwood (14/1), Russell Henley (18/1)
Value Bet
Ben Griffin- To Win (35/1)
Currently ranked 3rd on tour for true strokes gained total over the past three months, Ben Griffin is in low-key tremendous form. He has won twice this season (he also finished runner-up to Scheffler at the Memorial Tournament). He has looked in good nick in recent weeks, finishing T12 or better in each of his last three starts. Last week, he gained 1.58 strokes per round on approach (which is a clear recipe for success at East Lake). And all of that while apparently overdosing on creatine on Sunday! Furthermore, Ben Griffin may need a strong showing to force his way into Ryder Cup consideration. He is currently 9th in the Ryder Cup points tally. However, the trio of Thomas, Morikawa and Cantlay are almost certain to receive spots on the team. Jordan Spieth may also crack a nod while the likes of Cameron Young and Patrick Reed have real momentum. He may need a top-3 type week to convince Bradely to pick him.
The Man to Beat- Russell Henley- To Win (18/1)
It’s virtually pointless to opt for Scheffler at these odds. I also find it hard to back East Lake specialist McIlroy in the form that he is in. Looking at the other possible contenders, Russell Henley looks like he represents great value. Currently ranked 4th in the OWGR, Henley has been a rock this year, playing himself into Keegan Bradley’s Ryder Cup squad. He was 4th here last year in 72-hole scoring and has finished inside the top-11 in each of his last six events (he was runner-up at the Travelers during that spell).
