This Open Championship is probably my favourite sporting event on the calendar and taps into a part of the psyche that almost transcends golf. Watching these rugged, windswept links is probably the closest I will ever come to time-travelling (it makes me feel like rewatching Downton Abbey).
2025 DP World Tour/ US PGA Tour
The 153rd Open Championship
The Dunluce Links, Royal Portrush, Portrush, County Antrim, Northern Ireland
17th-20th July
Chris Gotterup defied expectations at last week’s Open appetizer, holding off Major champions such as Rory McIlroy and Wyndham Clark to claim his 2nd US PGA Tour title at the Scottish Open. Gotterup struggled in the early part of this season, missing eight of his first eleven cuts. But the young talent has stabilized in recent times, finishing in the top 30 in eight of his last nine outings (including last week’s epic victory at Renaissance). He tied the course record with a 61 on Friday. I don’t think we will be seeing a 61 this week, with the recent heat wave producing firm, difficult conditions. The early weather predictions seem fairly benign (certainly by 2019 standards). However, this is a coastal layout and weather conditions can change in an instant. I personally love it when the weather comes to party at these championships (it feels a little anticlimactic to have calm conditions on the links). I mean, who will ever forget the way that Brian Harman navigated awful conditions to claim the 2023 Open at Royal Liverpool?
I certainly haven’t agreed with every decision made by the PGA Tour in recent times. But the decision- made six years ago- to place the Open at the backend of the Major roster was an inspired one. It served a dual purpose, elevating the status of the US PGA Championship whilst simultaneously giving this historic event an added sense of grandeur (this is now the final chance for players to capture major championship glory). The oldest of all four majors, the Open Championship feels like the ideal way to cap a Major Championship season. Organized by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews (the R&A), the Open Championship is the only major to be played outside of the USA. Willie Park won the inaugural event in 1860 and this will be the 153rd staging of the event. The event is always staged on a links layout and this year it returns to Royal Portrush for the first time since 2019, when Shane Lowry blew the field away in atrocious conditions.
A Harry Colt masterwork, the Dunlace Links at Royal Portrush is an exacting links test that rewards pure ball-striking but rejects anything remotely errant. The course features incredible dunes that wouldn’t look out of place in Arrakis (if you know, you know). The severe undulations extend to the greens, which are arguably the crowning jewel of this challenging test. The tricky, undulating green complexes should be even more devilish than usual this year (owing to the firmness of the conditions). Furthermore, some length has also been added since the 2019 edition (this par-71 measures in at a formidable 7,346 yards). As always with these tests, it behooves you to look for guys who know how to handle links conditions. Also, with the Scottish Open elevated in recent seasons, it has become a better harbinger of possible Open contenders. In fact, nine of the last 13 Open champions played the Scottish Open in the lead-up to this event. Some feel that the LIV guys- all 19 of them- were underserved by playing Valderrama last week. Valderrama is a short, tree-lined test- the antithesis of this. However, it was a real grind and may have helped players get into the right mindset ahead of the year’s final Major.
Scottie Scheffler is a perfectly understandable favourite. The undisputed World No.1 has ten successive top-ten finishes under his belt, winning three of his last seven events. Despite his overall improvements with the flatstick, Scheffler still struggles with putting on the links and will need to iron out those kinks on these extremely testing green complexes. Rory McIlroy was bang-in contention at Renaissance before losing steam with ten consecutive pars on Sunday. Still, McIlroy is a past links specialist who will be playing his first Open Championship since claiming the Career Slam. Defending champ Xander Schauffele was exceptional at Royal Troon last year, picking up his 2nd Major Championship with a vintage tee-to-green performance. He has had his struggles this season, battling to recapture his 2024 form in the face of a painful rib injury. But he showed some signs of life at Renaissance, picking up his first top-ten finish in seven starts as he looks to become the first man to win back-to-back Claret Jugs since Padraig Harrington in 2007 and 2008.
Jon Rahm had a close call at Valderrama and should feel quietly confident going into this week. He is an exceptional links player who has often threatened in this tournament. He folded in contention at Quail Hollow but certainly has enough Major know-how to contend once again. Bryson DeChambeau doesn’t feel too appealing this week. The maverick two-time US Open champ has only picked up one top ten finish at the Open in eight appearances. He was cut here in 2019 and is fresh off a disappointing T30 finish at Valderrama, breaking a string of six successive top-ten finishes. Shane Lowry will obviously be a huge sentimental favourite while Robert MacIntyre will look to bounce back after a disappointing showing at Renaissance. Patrick Reed has been in rejuvenated form as he looks to force Keegan Bradley’s hand with the Ryder Cup fast approaching. Elsewhere, the likes of Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrell Hatton will look to cash in on their excellent links credentials. I haven’t even mentioned the likes of Morikawa, Spieth and Koepka, highlighting the strength in depth in this field.
Past Winners
2024: Xander Schauffele (-9)
2023: Brian Harman (-13)
2022: Cameron Smith (-20)
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Shane Lowry (-15) *Royal Portrush
Betting Favourties (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (9.5/2), Rory McIlroy (6/1), Jon Rahm (12/1), Bryson DeChambeau (22/1), Shane Lowry (25/1)
Value Bets
Viktor Hovland- To Win (30/1)
Viktor Hovland surely must win a Major at some point. The former FedEx Cup champ has looked rejuvenated since winning the Valspar Championship, putting in respectable performances at Augusta and Quail Hollow before a 3rd place finish at Oakmont. The Norwegian finished in a tie for 11th at Renaissance (all three of the previous Open champs have finished between 10th-15th at the Scottish Open). Hovland seems to have an affinity for this event, finishing in the top 13 in three of four starts, finishing in a tie for 4th in 2022.
Russell Henley- To Win (75/1)
It frankly boggles my mind that World No.5 Russell Henley is trading at 75/1 this week! Henley isn’t a flash player or personality, ranking 168th on the PGA Tour for Driving Distance. That’s probably why people underestimate him: he’s a throwback player who looks to strategically plot his way around the course. He won his 5th career title at Bay Hill earlier this year and has cracked the Major code in recent outings, finishing in the top ten in three of his last five Major Championships (including a solo 5th at Royal Troon last year). He currently sits 6th for SG: Around the Green and 9th for SG: Tee-to-Green. I think his lack of length should be mitigated by the drier conditions this week.
The Man to Beat- Jon Rahm (12/1)
Jon Rahm looks like great value towards the top of the markets. Sure, the two-time Major champ has struggled to seal the deal on LIV this season (he is yet to win a title despite currently sitting 2nd in the individual standings). But he contended at a challenging Valderrama and he got himself right in the mix at this year’s US PGA Championship, faltering down the stretch when in contention at Quail Hollow. Rahm – a two-time Irish Open champ- is an excellent links player who can alter the trajectory of his irons. He has picked up three top-seven finishes at the Open in his last four starts, finishing in a tie for 2nd back in 2023. He finished in a tie for 11th here in 2019 and his game is shaping up nicely.
Other Bets
Top 10 finish- Tom McKibben (9/1)
Tom McKibben could be a nice dark horse option in his home country. The Northern Irishman won his first DP World Tour title at the 2023 Porsche European Open and picked up a few more encouraging finishes before his shock departure to LIV. There are reports that he is a member here and has been playing the course since he was a youngster. Familiarity is always a plus (especially on idiosyncratic links layouts). He arrives following back-to-back top 5’s on the LIV Tour and should feel confident of impressing his home fans.
Top South African- Thriston Lawrence (4.25/1)
Thriston Lawrence is a real boom-or-bust player. But he knows how to turn up in big events, losing in a playoff at last year’s BMW PGA Championship. He also crucially finished solo 4th at Royal Troon, keeping pace on Sunday with a closing 68. He was also in the mix at last month’s US Open, ultimately finishing in a tie for 12th. He seems well-suited to the demands of links golf and could be a surprise package this week.
Top Debutant- Harry Hall (7/1)
Chris Gotterup and J.J. Spaun have obviously picked up impressive wins this year and will be favoured by many to be the top debutants. But just look at the recent form of Englishman Harry Hall. Hall has finished inside the top 24 in last seven tournaments, including a T17 in his 2nd Major start at Quail Hollow.
