The season-ending DP World Tour Championship set to take place at the Jumeirah Golf Estate’s Earth Course.
2022/2023 DP World Tour
DP World Tour Championship
The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estate, Dubai, UAE
16-19 November
Rory McIlroy secured his fifth Race to Dubai title without striking a ball last week, with Max Homa’s wire-to-wire victory in Sun City negating any chance of the Northern Irishman being usurped. That does make this week’s event feel like something of a damp squib.
First staged 14 years ago, this curtain closer came into existence after the DP World Tour chose to emulate the US PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup model. Thus, the Race to Dubai was born. It is a limited-field event for the top 50 in the Race to Dubai rankings.
Despite McIlroy’s inevitable coronation, this should prove to be a gripping week, with all 50 of the top European players actually in attendance. It will also feel like something of a late-season Ryder Cup celebration, with 10 of the victorious 12 Marco Simone champions in attendance.
It also marks the final Rolex Series event in what has been an exhilarating season of European golf.
The Earth Course
There’s an exquisite irony in the fact that the final event of the DP World Tour Playoff series is going to be played at a Greg Norman-design. Norman and his band of Saudi cohorts have been systematically ripping apart the fabric of golf for the past two years.
Be that as it may, the Earth Course has been the host venue of this event since its inception. Coming in at nearly 7,700 yards, the Earth Course is an absolute behemoth. Players simply have to take advantage of the reachable par 5’s.
The generous fairways- which are fairly typical of desert layouts- mean that distance should be favoured over accuracy this week. Also, it is probably wise to favour those in the field with positive desert golf experience.
The TifEagle Bermuda greens are extremely undulating and will require some precision from the fairways (little wonder Morikawa won here in 2021). The closing holes offer a theatrical climax that can completely alter the destiny of the championship (just ask Rory McIlroy).
The par 3 17th has an island green and the 18th is one of the most dramatic risk-reward holes you can imagine. Be prepared for thrills and spills this week.
The Contenders
Masters champion Jon Rahm will be looking to crown a successful year with his fourth victory at the Earth Course. But he will face a significant challenge this week, with the likes of Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland looking to dethrone the burly Spaniard.
Two-time champion Mathhew Fitzpatrick will look to emulate Rahm’s trio of victories with success this week while Hatton and Fleetwood will both be looking to end their long title droughts.
The ultra-consistent pair of Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk missed out on their opportunity to leapfrog Rahm in Sun City and they will both be looking to end their brilliant seasons on a high.
It’s really wonderful to see such a star-studded DP World Tour field. This tour faces significant existential challenges in the future but at least it’s still able to entice the very top European talent in these elite events.
Past Winners
2022: Jon Rahm (-20)
2021: Collin Morikawa (-17)
2020: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-15)
2019: Jon Rahm (-19)
2018: Danny Willett (-18)
2017: Jon Rahm (-19)
To Win Outright:
Rory McIlroy 21/5 | Jon Rahm 5/1 | Viktor Hovland 11/2 | Matthew Fitzpatrick 11/1 | Tyrell Hatton 13/1
Value Bet
Nicolai Hojgaard- To Win 28/1
Nicolai Hojgaard is taking a bit of a calculated gamble this week. Currently sitting 115th in the FedEx Cup rankings, he has chosen to eschew the RSM Classic this week despite an outside chance of losing his Special Temporary Membership. I think it will pay off and I’m really liking the look of Hojgaard this week. He was exceptional in Sun City, finishing runner-up to the resplendent Max Homa on a long track that rewards a powerful tee-to-green game. I was also struck by the fact that he led the field last week in Strokes Gained: Putting. That combination of tee-to-green ferocity and a hot flat stick should come in handy this week. He was 4th on debut here in 2021 and he has already won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship (highlighting his ability in this area of the world).
The Man to Beat- Tyrell Hatton- To Win 13/1
I think it’s best to swerve the top three- especially seeing that they are currently all trading at 5/1. The trio have barely played since Wentworth- excepting the Ryder Cup- and the fact that McIlroy has already claimed the season-ending title may take some of the sting out of that battle. I’m opting for some value with Tyrell Hatton at 14/1. The Englishman doesn’t really win enough for a player with his potential. But he has proven to be a brilliant desert exponent, winning the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and finishing runner-up in this event last year. He finished in a tie for 2nd last time out at Wentworth and I can see him mounting a surprise attack for this title.
