That was a surreal set of Champions League Round of 16 fixtures. The premier club competition in European football felt like a glorified exhibition tournament this week, with virtually every single one of the ties a foregone conclusion with like an hour left on the clock.
Which game had the most jeopardy? Liverpool were always going to win at home to Galatasaray. Leverkusen could have ruffled some feathers if they had struck during the opening salvos at the Emirates. But let’s be real; we knew the Gunners were going to find their way out of that tie. One thing I will say, I think there is going to be plenty of jeopardy in this year’s quarterfinal clashes. So, with that in mind, I have decided to give my updated Champions league power rankings, ranking all the quarterfinalists according to their chances of lifting the world’s most unwieldy trophy.
8. Sporting Lisbon
Ruben Amorim just can’t catch a break right now. First, Michael Carrick swoops in and reshapes his group of misfit Man United players into a Champions League-ready outfit. Now, Sporting Lisbon coach Rui Borges has surpassed Amorim’s accomplishments on the European stage, beating an admittedly Bodø/Glimt to progress to this year’s quarterfinals. Sporting Lisbon use the same dynamic 3-4-3 formation that they used under Amorim, with the likes of Goncalves and Trincao showing true quality going forward. They just don’t have the depth to challenge Arsenal over two legs.
7. Atletico Madrid
The ultimate European spoilers, Atletico aren’t going to be afraid of anyone they come across. But can you really see them lifting this year’s trophy? I think not. Simeone’s men- who have always punched above their weight on the European stage- play one brand of football. They are dogged masters of kidology, overcoming their deficiencies with a mastery of the dark arts. That can only get you so far in this tournament. Considering their recent Copa del Rey exploits, they will probably feel quite pleased to have drawn Barca in this year’s quarterfinals. But beyond that, I don’t give them much of a chance.
6. Liverpool
Arne Slot has been brought back down to earth with a thud this season, facing weekly recriminations from a fanbase still dealing with post-Klopp separation anxiety. Despite all their domestic upheaval, Liverpool remain a gargantuan force in Europe, harnessing the spiritual power of Anfield to pave over their flaws. I just think there are too many high-quality teams left for Liverpool to get by on ‘heritage’ alone (by the way, I hate the way that word has become weaponized on social media).
5. Real Madrid
Of all the remaining sides, European football’s greatest dynasty has arguably the worst run-in. They take on Bayern next and would then have to face the winner of the PSG/Liverpool clash (and that’s before a possible El Clasico final). While Real clearly have the pedigree and quality to beat anyone, I just think their injury issues and lack of stability will cost them in the end. The Mbappe factor obviously lends a bit of volatility to this placement. If they can get him fit and firing, Real can do anything. This is their domain.
4. PSG
PSG have timed their Champions League title defence perfectly. Luis Enrique struggled to maintain last year’s lofty standards during the early portion of the season (virtually every first-team player was injured at some point at other). But their medical staff have performed some Pitt-level heroics, with only Fabian Ruiz missing out on their midweek 3-0 dismantling of Chelsea. Having said that, in-form winger Bradley Barcola may miss out on the marquee Liverpool tie due to an ankle ligament sprain. They have plenty of firepower in reserve, with Dembelle and Kvaratskhelia looking to peak at the business end of the season. Enrique’s side have evolved this season, replacing kinetic, all-action football with something more controlled and measured.
3. FC Barcelona
That 2nd half showing against Newcastle felt like a defining moment in Barca’s season. Flick’s side have flirted with brilliance this year, casually destroying less-fancied foes. But their kamikaze high defensive line does invite the odd earth-shattering defeat (think Atletico in the first leg of their Copa del Rey semifinal clash). This side has an embarrassment of attacking riches (Yamal, Lewandowski, Fermin, Raphinha). But there may come one game where they just don’t click. And I still don’t trust their defensive unit to bail them out on any given occasion. Added to this, they face Atletico in an all-Spanish quarterfinal grudge match. Let’s be clear: I don’t think Atletico have much chance of winning the Champions League. But they are renowned spoilers and will treat a quarterfinal win over Barca as their de-facto trophy.
2. Arsenal
Arsenal just shave Barca into 2nd place in my current Champions League predictions. Curiously, I think I may still back Barca if the two clubs were to be meeting in the upcoming quarterfinals. But that Barca-Atletico clash has razor-thin margins and Arsenal should easily progress against Sporting Lisbon (they have been the beneficiary of some sweet cup draws this season). Interestingly, Arsenal have the inverse problem of potential semifinal opponents Barcelona: their defence is like Fort Knox, but they do lack for attacking inspiration from time to time. Could that come back to bite Arsenal somewhere down the line?
1. Bayern Munich
Every time I see Bayern Munich, I hear strains of Star Wars’ Imperial March. Not to say that they are in any way evil; there’s just a grim sense of inevitability about this Bayern machine. They were utterly ruthless in their round of 16 tie with Atalanta, winning 10-2 on aggregate to send shockwaves through the rest of European football. Harry Kane seems to have fully recovered from his recent calf issues, netting a midweek brace to make it 52 goals in 44 games for club and country this season. Olise is the most destructive playmaker on planet earth while Luiz Diaz’s incessant running is enough to give any fullback sleepless nights. They are wedged in a thankless part of the draw, tasked with taking down European dynasty Real Madrid before meeting the winner of the PSG-Liverpool match. But as of now, there is no team more feared than Bayern in this year’s competition.
