McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown believes that Max Verstappen will wave goodbye to Red Bull after F1 2025.
And as of where he would go next, Brown believes Verstappen will sign with Mercedes to align with the engine manufacturer Brown sees as the “best-equipped” for the huge regulatory reset coming for F1 2026.
Verstappen in F1 2025 will look to make Red Bull history by winning a remarkable fifth World Championship in a row, though McLaren made an early statement of intent in Australia, dominating over one lap while Lando Norris held off Verstappen in a gripping conclusion to a wet Grand Prix.
However, despite crossing the line less than a second behind Norris, Verstappen suggested that the Red Bull RB21 still does not have the outright pace to take a win with the Chinese Grand Prix next up.
Asked how satisfying P2 was, Verstappen replied: “I think it’s good compared to the teams behind us, but if you look at the first stint, we were quite a bit off.
“As soon as the tyres started to overheat, we had no chance. McLaren just took off.
“So, we still have a lot of work to do to fight for a win.
“But yeah, I’m happy that we are second here. It’s basically one place better than we should have been (as McLaren’s Oscar Piastri spun out of P2). And it’s 18 more points than I had last year at this race.”
Verstappen and Red Bull had been dominant in F1’s ground effect era, but having lost their way during last season – Verstappen at one stage going 10 races without a win – talk of a potential exit for their flying Dutchman bubbled away, with Red Bull senior advisor Helmut Marko and Red Bull team principal Christian Horner both admitting to a performance-related clause in his contract.
Mercedes and Aston Martin were the teams speculated as potential alternate homes on the F1 grid for Verstappen, and Brown has put a “bet” on Verstappen joining Mercedes for F1 2026.
That year, new chassis will be powered by revamp engines, featuring a 50/50 split between electrical power and an internal combustion engine.
Aston Martin has the potential lure of F1 design legend Adrian Newey – who contributed to all four of Verstappen’s titles so far and Red Bull’s 14 overall – as well as an incoming engine partnership with Honda, the Japanese brand powering Verstappen to his F1 championship success. Mercedes, meanwhile, nailed the last F1 engine change in 2014.
“Oh I think he’ll leave at the end of this year,” Brown predicted on Verstappen when speaking to The Telegraph, “most likely to Merc.
“There’s been talk of Aston Martin, too, with Adrian Newey joining. But as great as Adrian is – and he’s the greatest ever – you need a whole team around you. You need the culture. That takes time.
“If I was betting, I’d bet on Merc.
“In the last 10 years, they’ve won the championship seven or eight times. Last year they won five races. They have stability. We know Toto (Wolff, Mercedes principal and one-third team owner) likes him. And I think we all feel HPP (Mercedes High Performance Powertrains) is best-equipped on the power unit side heading into the new engine regulations next year.
“Plus, George (Russell) is out of contract at the end of this season and Kimi (Antonelli) will be on a series of one-years.”
However, Wolff claimed at the Australian GP that interest in Verstappen remains parked, with Russell due to sign a new contract.
Speaking alongside Russell, Antonelli and Mercedes reserve Valtteri Bottas ahead of the race weekend, Wolff said: “We (Wolff and Russell) have had a chat, two weeks ago, about what the right timing would be to liaise, and I am – naively or not – someone who sticks to what he says.
“And these three are the combination that I want to go forward with Mercedes. I have no other reasons to doubt that, on the contrary.
“And we are going to find some time, I guess before the summer. I need to be careful what I say to you, because every month will be. We’ll have those discussions when they happen, but in a timely manner, without disrupting the season.
“I think we said it really clear last year, he (Verstappen) said the same, we need to concentrate on our driver line-up.
“I won’t flirt outside if I’m in a good relationship, and this is true for this year too.
“So at the moment, that (signing Verstappen), is not on any radar.
“And I don’t plan to shift my concentration away from these guys (Russell and Antonelli).
“And make sure that George has some visibility very soon, or has a contract very soon.”
