Winner guaranteed a place in semi as Afghanistan and Australia square-up
Context:
England’s loss to Afghanistan on Wednesday has turned Group B into a three-horse race. While it is not guaranteed, South Africa is almost assured of going through due to their excellent run rate. That means Friday’s encounter between Australia and Afghanistan is almost a knockout game. If Afghanistan win, they will have four points and be guaranteed of going through. If Australia win, they will move to five points and they will go through, along with South Africa who will have qualified regardless of what happens in their final game against England.
Afghanistan turned in a stellar performance on Wednesday as they posted 325 for seven to beat England by eight runs. It was a huge day for players like Ibrahim Zadran (who posted the tournaments highest score to date with a knock of 177 from 146 balls) and Azmatullah Omarzai (who scored 41 and returned figures of five for 58). The big question is, can they rise to the occasion again on Friday or have they played their one big game of the tournament?
Australia’s recent form has not been convincing. Yes, they beat England in their tournament opener, but that was after they conceded a massive 351 runs. They also lost twice to Sri Lanka in their warm-up tournament. The game against South Africa was rained out. Whether it’s form that’s lacking or just the fact that the team isn’t what it used to be is debateable. Australia is without injured stalwarts like Pat Cummins, Josh Hazelwood, Mitch Marsh and Mitchell Starc and the recently retired Marcus Stoinis. They certainly have a whiff of fallibility about them.
Afghanistan v Australia | Champions Trophy Game 10 | Friday 27 February 2025 | Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore | 11:00am
Group B permutations
Australia and SA win: Australia and South Africa go through (SA likely to be top on RR)
Afghanistan and SA win: Afghanistan finish second (four points) and SA finish first (five points)
Afghanistan and England win: Afghanistan (four points) finish top RR separates SA and Aus (three points each)
Venue:
Friday’s game is set to be played at the same venue where Afghanistan beat England on Wednesday. If nothing else, Afghanistan have shown that they are very comfortable at the venue – but then, so too are Australia, who chased down England’s 351 at the venue as well.
As was the case on Wednesday this is expected to be a good surface for scoring runs. While the ball may offer some assistance to the seamers early on, it’s expected to get better for shot making as the ball gets older. Spin is likely to play a key role in the middle overs.
The last two games played at this venue have been high-scoring encounters. Both of Friday’s protagonists beat England here with four innings from two matches yielding a massive 1349 runs. There is no reason to expect anything other than a run-fest on Friday.
Recent form:
Afghanistan: W, L, W, W, NR.
Australia: A, W, L, L, L.
Key players:
Afghanistan: Ibrahim Zadran
It is hard to look past Zadran after his heroics on Wednesday. What’s worth saying is that he is not a one-hit wonder. Still a youngster he in now in possession of the two highest ODI scores for Afghanistan. Still just 23-years-old he has now played 35 ODIs and scored 1634 runs at an outstanding average of 51.06. He hasn’t made his runs against lowly opposition either with big scores against a host of established ODI teams. Zadran was the epitome of composure in his knock against England and under no circumstances will he, or any of his team-mates, want to see the excellent work of the England win be undone by a tepid performance against Australia.
Australia: Travis Head
Known for his ability against spin, Head could be the key to Australia’s chances of advancing. Batting at the top of the order he will have plenty of time to build an innings and to impose himself on proceedings. By his high standards he has been through a bit of a lean patch recently. He averages 43.04 in ODI’s, but his last ten international innings (across all formats) have seen him pass 50 just once. If he can get going on a batsman friendly wicket it could spell trouble.
Verdict: Afghanistan
Afghanistan has a very good bowling attack. While Rashid Khan is the marquee player, he is certainly not the only bowler who can cause problems. What we saw from Australia in their recent series in Sri Lanka is that they struggle against quality spin – and quality spinners are something that Afghanistan have in abundance. Australia is without a host of key bowlers and, as they showed in chasing down England’s score in their opening game, they are not pushovers, but this is the weakest Australian side at an ICC event for a long time. This is an Afghanistan side with quality, purpose and hunger, they should not be underestimated.
