The 2026 event will be staged in the subcontinent, a factor Ashwin believes could tilt the balance slightly in New Zealand’s favour. While the Black Caps are not viewed as outright favourites, Ashwin pointed to their recent exposure to Indian conditions as a modest advantage.
New Zealand toured India not long ago, suffering a humbling 4-1 series defeat, but that experience is still seen as valuable preparation.
New Zealand head into the World Cup dealing with concerns of their own. Injuries to Adam Milne and Michael Bracewell have disrupted plans, while several batters are currently struggling for form.
Even so, Ashwin identified Finn Allen, Glenn Phillips and Mitchell Santner as potential match-winners capable of carrying the side into the semi-finals through experience and overall prowess.
Australia, meanwhile, arrive after a damaging 0-3 T20I whitewash against Pakistan, a result widely described as humiliating.
Although former T20 World Cup champions, Australia have been hit by Mitchell Starc’s retirement and Pat Cummins being ruled out with a major injury.
Ashwin believes the squad lacks confidence, highlighting particular concerns around an inexperienced spin-bowling attack, which could prove costly in subcontinental conditions.
“New Zealand might have lost the T20I series 4-1 to India, but there will be a lot of learning for them,” Ashwin said on his YouTube channel.
“They have always been a bogey team for India in the World Cup, they plan well. New Zealand are probably in a better state than Australia. I think New Zealand have a better shot at this World Cup than Australia.
“Australia did not have a great World Cup in West Indies and the USA, so I personally think Australia might hit a little bit of a roadblock. If Adam Zampa is injured, who is their spinner?
“Matthew Kuhnemann is not a big spinner, I would have gone for Swepson or any other leg spinner. Australia are missing quality this time. There is Travis Head, who can be trusted.
“If he has a tournament to remember, then anything can happen. If Travis Head is the captain, I would say Australia has a great chance. But Mitchell Marsh is the captain, and he is only okay in subcontinent conditions.”
