With next week’s ATP Finals lineup finally sorted, I thought this an opportune time to do a ranking of the respective player’s chances. The injury-enforced absence of defending champ Jannik Sinner- coupled with ATP Finals king Novak Djokovic’s failure to qualify- has blasted this year’s season-ending showpiece wide open.
Four debutants head to Turin with hope in their heart as they look to upset the status quo. Let’s see how they figure against more established figures such as Alcaraz and Zverev.
8. Flavio Cobolli- Debutant
Debutant Flavio Cobolli is on a race against the clock to even compete next week, withdrawing from last week’s Paris Masters due to a minor muscle tear he suffered in Vienna. The French Open finalist has been a breath of fresh air this season but is yet to reach an indoor final in his career. The combo of physical ailments and poor indoor credentials make for grim reading ahead of the trip to Turin.
7. Rafael Jodar- Debutant
Another of the four first-time attendees, Rafael Jodar has enjoyed a meteoric rise this season. The hard-hitting Spaniard has officially replaced Brazilian Joao Fonesca as the hipster answer to the question: who is the most exciting player in world tennis right now? Sure, he just reached a maiden Masters 1000 final at the chaotic Shanghai Masters. I think he is going to struggle with the pure indoor conditions of the Inalpi Arena (there is no wind whatsoever). These courts are better suited to the flatter hitters. Jodar failed to get beyond the final 16 in back-to-back events in Vienna and Paris.
6. Arthur Fils- Debutant
French baseliner Arthur Fils has done well to navigate this season despite missing out on both the Aussie and French Opens due to injury. He enjoyed an incredible breakthrough in Cincy, winning a maiden Masters 1000 title in a clear demonstration of his massive potential. I just think that the bigger servers will be able to dictate play on these surfaces. Fils tends to get rushed on these late-season indoor surfaces, forced into defensive postures when he would typically be attacking.
5. Frances Tiafoe- Debutant
Mercurial American talent Frances Tiafoe has been in dreadful form since his scintillating semifinal run at Flushing Meadows, losing back-to-back first-round matches in Vienna and Paris. The pacey, lower-bouncing indoor conditions don’t really play to his strengths. Tiafoe’s prefers outdoor hardcourt conditions, where his natural athleticism and shotmaking virtuosity allows him to gain the ascendancy in longer rallies. He has only reached one indoor final in his career, losing in the final of the 2021 Vienna Open. However, his ability to rise to the big occasion probably gives him an edge over the likes of Fils.
4. Daniil Medvedev- 8th Appearance- Best Result: Champion (2020)
The Russian has reached the semifinals or better in five of his last six tournament outings, winning an indoor event at the recent Almaty Open. But Medvedev hasn’t reached an indoor ATP Final of 500 calibre or better since losing the 2023 Vienna Open final. He won the 2020 ATP Finals at the O2 Arena before reaching the final in Turin in 2021. He just doesn’t look the same player in elite events, failing to go beyond the 4th round at any of this year’s slams. An early loss could lead to a mental capitulation. He also failed to progress beyond the round robin stage in two of his previous three appearances (2022 and 2024).
3. Alex Zverev- 9th Appearance- Best Result: Champion (2018 and 2021)
This is going to be a bit of a controversial placement. Alex Zverev has enjoyed a stunning breakthrough campaign, taking advantage of the Sinneraz injury turmoil to win the first two Grand Slams of his career. Zverev is a past indoor master, claiming victory at the 2018 and 2021 ATP Finals. His booming serve and piercing, flat groundstrokes are tailormade for these surfaces. I just think that the German is probably already thinking of enjoying the off-season. He has won his long-overdue slams and has already secured the year-end No.1 ranking. I wonder if that may sap a bit of motivation.
2. Ben Shelton- 2nd Appearance- Best Result: Round-Robin Stage (2025)
I love the way that Ben Shelton constantly finds ways to improve his game. He has shored up that backhand wing this season and found more consistency with his first serve, sacrificing a bit of brutal place for more consistent, pinpoint deliveries (which is particularly useful in these quick, indoor arenas). And all of this came to fruition during last week’s Paris Masters runner-up finish, where the American pushed Carlos Alcaraz in two very tightly contested sets of indoor tennis. The somewhat controversial appointment of former Alcaraz coach Juan Carlos Ferrero could be the final key in Shelton’s Grand Slam quest. In any event, I think the American’s booming lefty serve and rapidly improving all-round game will serve him well next week.
1. Carlos Alcaraz- 5th Appearance- Best Result: Runner-up (2025)
With Jannik Sinner set to miss out in Turin, this is surely Alcaraz’s time to claim that elusive ATP Finals crown. The Spaniard has slowly returned to his indomitable best in recent weeks, building on his quarterfinal run in New York with three victories in his subsequent four events. His stunning Paris Masters triumph felt like a coming-of-age moment for him on the indoor surfaces. For all he has accomplished in the game, these quick European indoor hardcourt arenas have always felt a little too quick for his specific skillset. The Spainard modified his game, levelling up his serve to win more cheap points while upping his overall aggression.
