South Africa lead the series 2-1 heading into the climax of the inaugural series at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, USA on Saturday.
It is the first Test between the Springboks and All Blacks on American soil and is being staged partly to grow the game ahead of the 2031 Rugby World Cup in the USA.
The 71,000-capacity home of the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens is expected to host a big, enthusiastic crowd, including travelling supporters from both nations.
Series so far
First Test (Ellis Park, Johannesburg): New Zealand 33–16 South Africa
Second Test (DHL Stadium, Cape Town): South Africa 33–26 New Zealand
Third Test (FNB Stadium, Johannesburg): South Africa 29–24 New Zealand
The Springboks have already ensured they cannot lose the series, and a win or draw in Baltimore will seal victory, while New Zealand will be determined to prevent a series defeat. The special Rivalry Trophy is two magnetically joined halves and goes to a clear series winner, or each team gets a half in the event of a draw.
The contests so far have been physical and high-quality, with the All Blacks thriving in loose play while the Springboks have dominated the tight areas and set pieces, allowing them to move into a series lead despite New Zealand outscoring them 13 tries to eight.
The All Blacks started strongly, but the Springboks responded with power up front and growing expansiveness to unlock their outside backs. Key injuries have hit both sides, most notably All Blacks captain Ardie Savea and Springbok star Cheslin Kolbe after the third Test.
Team news
South Africa have made two changes to the starting XV from the third Test, with Damian Willemse returning at fullback in place of Kolbe, who fractured his jaw at the FNB Stadium. Morne van den Berg forced his way into the starting team after a sparkling performance in the second half of the third Test, with Cobus Reinach moving to the bench.
Starting XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg; 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Bench: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand have made significant changes for the final Test, partly forced by injuries to key players like Savea, Luke Jacobson and Quinn Tupaea, but head coach Dave Rennie also stressed the need to inject fresh energy into the team in the lead-up to the game.
Codie Taylor returns as captain and starting hooker, while Richie Mo’unga starts at fly-half for his first Test for the All Blacks since the 2023 World Cup final. There is a new-look front row, with Ethan de Groot and Fletcher Newell coming in, and Patrick Tuipulotu will start at lock. Anton Lienert-Brown adds even more experience to the backline alongside Mo’unga, with Beauden Barrett and Rieko Ioane among the replacements.
Starting XV: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard; 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (c), 1 Ethan de Groot.
Bench: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett.
Date: Saturday, 12 September 2026
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, USA
Kick-off: 23:00 SAST
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Key battlegrounds
The scrum
South Africa’s dominant set-piece has been a decisive factor in the last two Tests. Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw form a formidable front row that repeatedly wins penalties and disrupts New Zealand’s platform. The All Blacks have reshuffled their front row, with De Groot and Newell starting in a bid to stabilise a unit that struggled under pressure in Johannesburg.
The Springboks’ ascendancy in the scrum battle has been key to controlling territory, forcing New Zealand to play from the back foot and limiting their ability to spread the ball into the backline, where they are most dangerous.
Breakdown and physicality
Brutal collisions and ruck contests have defined the series. This was especially evident in the third Test where even South Africa’s backline players got stuck into the rucks in the wide areas, with the likes of De Allende and Hooker joining kety forwards like Malcolm Marx in winning crucial turnovers.
Du Toit, Wiese and Kolisi give the Boks massive carrying and jackaling power, and New Zealand will be leaning heavily on Blackadder, Vaa’i and Lakai to match that intensity. The All Blacks will need to match the Boks in the collisions and prevent them from slowing the ball down so they can play at the tempo they want.
Kicking and territory
With Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Willemse taking on Richie Mo’unga and Damian McKenzie, the aerial and territorial contest will be high-quality. Mo’unga’s return adds a more structured kicking option for the All Blacks after they were often forced to play from deep last time out.
Key matchups
Malcolm Marx vs Codie Taylor
Two of the world’s best all-round hookers go head-to-head in the deciding game of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry. Marx has been one of the series’ standout players, with his carrying, lineout throwing, defensive work, and turnover threat proving difficult for the All Blacks to handle. Taylor, now captain in Savea’s absence, must lead from the front and provide set-piece accuracy while matching Marx’s physical output around the park.
Pieter-Steph du Toit vs Ethan Blackadder and Tupou Vaa’i
Du Toit’s work-rate and ability to win turnovers have been central to South Africa’s success in the tour, although his influence was slightly muted in the third Test. Regardless, New Zealand’s new-look loose-forward combination must contain him while generating their own go-forward ball to provide a platform for their expansive backline.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu vs Richie Mo’unga
While Feinberg-Mngomezulu has not produced many sparkling moments of individual brilliance in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry, the young Springbok fly-half has grown in confidence and control, while also being a committed and effective on defence.
What Mo’unga lacks in recent Test appearances, he more than makes up for with experience and proven big-game temperament. The player who better manages the tempo and finds space for their outside backs will have a major say in the outcome.
Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie vs Kurt-Lee Arendse and Damian Willemse
New Zealand’s finishing threat remains potent even without some first-choice options, and South Africa’s back-three must neutralise Jordan’s speed and McKenzie’s counter-attacking threat while making the most of Arendse’s finishing ability and Willemse’s all-round game.
What to expect
Conditions in Baltimore are forecast to be warm and humid, with both sides hinting at a more expansive style of rugby away from the intensity of South African venues. However, the rivalry’s trademark physicality is still likely to be on display.
South Africa’s set-piece edge, particularly in the scrums, and depth remain major weapons. At the same time, New Zealand have taken a bit of a risk by bringing in Mo’unga, but will bank on his experience and ability to control a match to unlock the pace and finishing of Jordan and McKenzie.
The Springboks go into the deciding Test as worthy favourites after regaining momentum in the series and maintaining relative stability in selection.
