With tensions rising between the camps, the Springboks and All Blacks collide at FNB Stadium in the third and potentially series-deciding Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry on Saturday.
To Win
Springboks | Draw | New Zealand
Handicap
Springboks | New Zealand
Match context
With the fourth Test taking place in Baltimore for financial reasons, many believe the result of this weekend’s third match will be the true determiner of who wins RGR. While understandable, the decision to have that vital fourth matchup staged outside of South Africa’s borders has undeniably diluted the integrity of the series, making this Calabash clash even more important. There’s also the small fact that the loser will no longer be able to win the official series — an unthinkable proposition for either side.
Rassie Erasmus effectively earmarked this third Test as the most important of the series, and for good reason. He also suggested that the immense physical toll of the previous two games will start to really impact player performances from this week onwards, and believes he’ll have used 36 players by the Baltimore game, with 30 having been utilised already.
If the players’ bodies do start breaking down, the Boks are certainly in the superior position depth-wise. The player pool at the back-to-back world champions’ disposal is enormous and they’ll be far better placed than the All Blacks to deal with any further injuries to squad members heading into that final encounter.
That said, Erasmus has resisted the urge to make wholesale changes this week, though the front row of Ox Nché, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw replaces the now benched trio of Gerhard Steenekamp, Deon Fourie and Thomas du Toit. Kurt-Lee Arendse also comes in for Damian Willemse (hamstring), with Cheslin Kolbe switching to fullback and Arendse taking up the No 14 jersey.
There’ve been plenty of jibes thrown by both coaches over the past week, with ABs boss Dave Rennie suggesting the Boks have been scrumming illegally by ‘walking around’ and goring straight through tighthead Tyrel Lomax, which Erasmus has vehemently denied. The latter then accused Rennie of not going through the proper channels by complaining to the media, all of which has added even more spice to this blockbuster.
The series is on a knife-edge at Soccer City.
Players to watch
Wilco Louw (Springboks)
Depending on how Nika Amashukeli referees this clash, the presence of ‘Quadzilla’ at tighthead for the hosts from the get-go could reap similar rewards to those of the first Test where they absolutely dominated proceedings. Angus Gardner has come under scrutiny for his refereeing performance in the second Test where he appeared unwilling to make big calls at the scrums, but that could change with Louw and Amashukeli on the pitch.
Hollywoodbets Sharks man du Toit remains many people’s pick for best prop in the game alongside Nché, but there’s no questioning just how devastating Louw’s scrummaging ability is and Bok fans will be hoping for another huge innings from the front row giant.
Codie Taylor (All Blacks)
The veteran of the All Blacks’ 2015 Rugby World Cup win wasn’t at his best in Cape Town with the lineout coming under pressure, while he also knocked a ball on early in the second-half. Although he was far from the only Kiwi to have a so-so game on the west coast, the side could really do with a big performance from the 35-year-old, whose leadership ability is a major source of inspiration within the setup.
If Taylor can nail his darts on Saturday and lift his physicality level again against the enormous Bok front row, his countrymen will be all the better for it.
Tactical overview
Much will depend on the performances at the scrum this week with Amashukeli in charge. There has been so much said in the wake of the post-match comments made by both head coaches in Cape Town and the outcome of the Georgian referee’s decisions in this aspect of play are likely to have a major impact on the shape and flow of the game.
Elsewhere, the tourists will need to remain switched on under the high ball, with the Boks again dominating in the air last week, while conversely the latter cannot allow the AB backs too much time and space on the ball or they’re likely to be cut to ribbons as they have already been at times in the first two Tests.
As mentioned, another big thing to look out for this week will be the players’ energy levels and general output. The bumps and bruises will be becoming increasingly difficult for both sets of athletes to ignore after what has already been a gargantuan Test series, but the victory nay lie with whichever team manages to best push through that pain barrier.
Prediction
The Boks to take this on the board, silence the doubters and head to the States primed for a 3-1 series win.
