Joe Schmidt will be seeking out a victory in his final Test in charge of the Wallabies when they tackle on fellow winless outfit Italy in round three of the Nations Championship in Perth on Saturday.
To Win
Australia | Draw | Italy
Handicap
Australia | Italy
Match context
Despite there having been so much to like in Australia’s opening Nations Championship games, they just didn’t have enough to beat either Ireland in Sydney or France in Brisbane. The side’s set piece has come on in leaps and bounds since their end-of-year tour, but a lack of synergy and deficiencies in other areas has meant they are still searching for their first win of the competition in what is the final game of the Southern Hemisphere Series.
Schmidt, for all the talk of his positive impact on Australia rugby in the lead up to the British and Irish Lions series this time last year, has now presided over nine losses in the Wallabies’ last 10 Tests. He is far from the sole person responsible for the nation’s ongoing rugby union devolution, but there will be some hope among supporters of Aussie green and gold that the arrival of Less Kiss will coincide with an uptake in fortunes for the embattled side.
Following their opening two-point defeat to Ireland, the home team allowed Fabien Galthie’s French side to record their biggest ever win (42-26) on Aussie soil last week to leave them stranded in fifth spot on the Southern Hemisphere table with just three-points to show for their efforts. With so much uncertainty surrounding the team at present, in particular their options at flyhalf, a bounce back win over Italy is desperately needed.
The Azzurri fell 27-10 to Japan in Tokyo in round one before succumbing 47-17 to Will Jordan and the All Blacks in Wellington last time out. Despite trailing by just four-points at halftime in NZ, the Italians were ultimately no match for the three-time world champions but will feel far more confident heading to HBF Park and are looking for an unprecedented third straight win over the Wallabies.
Players to watch
Angus Bell (Wallabies)
One of his side’s few shining lights in the defeat to France, the now former Ulster loosehead impressed at scrum time and made several big hits on defence. The 25-year-old genuinely has the potential to become world class over the next few years, with his influence within the national setup only set to increase in the build-up to Australia’s home World Cup.
Given what’s at stake this weekend, where another loss to the Italians would set the team even further back, Bell must come up with the goods yet again and target another big scrummaging and defensive shift to stifle the Italians’ momentum.
Stephen Varney (Italy)
The Italy scrumhalf’s contestables against the All Blacks were superb, and he will be tasked with producing much of the same in Perth against an Aussie back three that isn’t always as dependable as it could be. Welsh-born Varney also has a shrewd eye for a gap and if the hosts switch off close to the breakdown, they could find themselves on the backfoot quick as a whistle.
The 25-year-old, who plies his trade for Exeter Chiefs in Gallagher Premiership, will be hoping his pack can match the Wallabies up front to provide the necessary platform to unleash Paolo Garbisi and his deadly backs.
Tactical overview
Both teams will be desperate to get over the line this weekend before the competition goes into its hiatus, though neither look like realistically displacing many of the teams above them on their respective logs.
Italy have made the most tackles (421) in the Nation Championship to date and may again be expected to work hard in this department given Australia have racked up the third-most carries (312) and fourth-most metres (945) heading into round three.
If the home team aren’t accurate at the tackle area, Italy’s counter-attacking game will come into play with their dangermen out wide and “Brexencello” midfield pairing of Nacho Brex and Tommaso Menoncello capable of scoring from anywhere on their day.
The lineout will also be a particularly intriguing battle after Italy managed to steal three of the All Blacks’ throws in Wellington, while the Wallabies secured all 11 of their own against France. With the outcome set to be decided by the slimmest of margins, the functionality (or lack thereof) of either side’s set piece could swing the contest.
Prediction
Australia to claim a narrow victory on the board here to send Schmidt off on a positive note after his challenging stint at the helm.
