This has been a bizarre major year which has veered from the utterly predictable (Rory going back-to-back at Augusta) to the downright incomprehensible (Aaron Rai running away with the PGA Championship at Aronimink).
American firebrand Wyndham Clark was a somewhat more predicable winner at Shinnecock. But who’s to say that we can’t have another first-time major winner at next week’s Open Championship? The idiosyncratic nature of links golf does open the door to a large swathe of possible champions. With that in mind, I have ranked the five players most likely to win a maiden major title next week (with one honourable mention).
Honourable Mention- Tyrell Hatton
The three-time Alfred Dunhill Links champion has been in encouraging form this season, finishing in the top ten at both the Masters and US Open (plus he won on LIV). But he hasn’t finished inside the top ten at the Open since 2019! I just think he lacks the temperament to withstand the vagaries of links golf for four days against the world’s best.
5. Cameron Young
Cameron Young has enjoyed a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde campaign. The burly, big-hitting Young started the season in magnificent fashion, winning the Players before a compelling T3 finish at the Masters. But he has plateaued dramatically in recent weeks, finishing outside the top 40 in each of his last three outings. He needs a putting exorcist to come vanquish those demons again (he currently ranks 84th in SG: Putting). His improved putting was a major reason behind his surge at the beginning of the season. Birkdale doesn’t have the most undulating surfaces, and I think he should be fine next week. Young has also shown a proclivity for links layouts in the past, finishing runner-up at St Andrews in 2022 before a T8 at Royal Liverpool the following season.
4. Viktor Hovland
Viktor Hovland’s recent triumph at the Travelers Championship felt like a potential watershed moment. The affable Norwegian has struggled with the burden of expectation since claiming FedEx Cup bragging rights in 2023, missing the cut in five of his last eleven major championships. But he suddenly roared back to relevance at TPC River Highlands, staring down Scottie Scheffler in a playoff victory that could give him the self-belief to finally break his major duck. Hovland- who grew up playing on coastal layouts ravaged by severe Nordic winds- has always looked comfy on links setups. He picked up three successive top-12 finishes at the Open between 2021 and 2023 (highlighted by a T4 finish at St Andrews in 2022).
3. Chris Gotterup
Only two players have won three PGA Tour titles this season: Matt Fitzpatrick and Chris Gotterup. One could argue that Gotterup is the only pure three-time winner due to Fitzpatrick winning the Zurich event alongside his brother. Anyway, Chris Gotterup is on a high after his victory at a decidedly understrength John Deere Classic. It was a welcome return to form for a guy who started the season on a tear. Gotterup’s emphasis on power over accuracy may not make him the ideal fit for a Birkdale course that tends to reward strategy and finesse. But he took to the links with aplomb last season, defusing a McIlroy charge to win the Scottish Open before a stunning T3 finish at Royal Portrush.
2. Tommy Fleetwood
I’m getting tired of saying it’s only a matter of time until Tommy captures that elusive major title. I really thought that the Southport Messiah would have kicked on following last year’s epic victory at East Lake. He has been consistent if unspectacular this year, making 13 of 14 cuts but only managing three top 5’s. I think many- myself included- thought this would be his year to break free and dominate. Still, I think Fleetwood’s links credentials suggest he could elevate his game at Birkdale. He has produced his most consistent major championship golf in this venerated tournament, picking up three top-ten finishes in his last six appearances (highlighted by his runner-up finish to Lowry at Royal Portrush in 2019). His ability to control the trajectory of his irons always gives him a shout in gusty links conditions.
1. Russell Henley
Russell Henley will probably surprise a few people. But allow me to explain. Royal Birkdale isn’t a course that’s going to be pummelled into submission by pure power (as evidenced by Jordan Spieth’s victory in 2017). Russel Henley currently ranks 1st on the PGA Tour for Driving Accuracy. He also ranks 2nd in Scrambling, meaning he should be able to deal with the tight lies and steep, daunting runoff areas. The winner of the recent Charles Schwab Challenge has also been flirting with the majors in recent times, picking up top-ten finishes in five of his last nine major appearances. He has also shown much more appreciation for the dark links arts in recent years, picking up top-ten finishes in each of his last two outings. Something is telling me that his surgical, risk-avoidant approach could pay huge dividends here.
