Preview: 126th U.S. Open

The uninitiated may wonder why this is the most feared golf tournament in the world. The answer is simple: the USGA are the golfing equivalent of the family from Texas Chainsaw Massacre, relishing the torture they put their victims through. Seriously, the United States Golfing Association have become notorious for the lengths they are prepared to go to create the most hellish golfing experiences imaginable. Since the turn of the century, only five U.S. Opens have ended with players in double-digits under par. They love firm, fast conditions, glacial greens and the type of rough usually reserved for a Jurassic Park movie. In short, this is probably the toughest test of the entire season. And I absolutely it.

Aronimink was a lovely appetizer

I think watching the top guys shoot 26-under-par on a beautifully manicured resort course can become a chore. I want to see these guys tested to their limit as they are forced to navigate the good breaks and the bad (it’s the reason I love great links golf). This year’s PGA Championship gave us a bit of a taste of what to expect this week. The PGA of America pushed Aronimink to its limits, introducing wild pin placements and fiendish rough to simulate conditions that wouldn’t have been out of a place on the U.S. Open roster. Aaron Rai stormed to victory, mastering the Pennsylvanian masterpiece with the poise of a born major champion. I don’t think that the USGA will be losing sleep over Aronimink’s greater-than-expected difficulty curb. This year’s event will be held at Shinnecock Hills, one of the most feared venues on the entire U.S. Open roster. But before we get into the course, let’s take a brief look at the history of this grand event.

The Origins of Misery

The U.S. Open Dates all the way back to 1895 and is the 2nd oldest major behind the Open Championship. The first edition was played on a nine-hole course at Newport Country Club and was won by Englishman Horace Rawlings. Interestingly, the early days of the US Open were dominated by Brits, until John J. McDermott became the first native-born American winner since 1911. The Americans have dominated the event since, with only six other countries producing winners since 1950. South Africa have distinguished themselves in this event, winning five trophies since 1965 (though I think it’s going to be nigh-on impossible for them to add to that tally this year). The mystique of the U.S. Open is exacerbated by its gruelling final qualification process, where U.S. Open hopefuls play 36 holes in one frantic, nerve-shredding day (it’s known as the ‘Longest day in Golf). I’m eternally grateful for the USGA’s decision to scrap the 18-hole Monday playoff in 2018 (wow, that felt like a chore). But without further ado, lets’ turn our attention to this week’s venue: Shinnecock Hills.

The Course

Originally opened as a 12-hole course in 1891, Shinnecock underwent various renovations before William Flynn’s major redesign in 1931. William Flynn- a renowned architect- masterminded the current layout, using the natural, sandy topography of the Long Island site to fashion this linksy beast. It has become one of America’s most celebrated brutes, hosting five previous U.S. Opens (the last one being the 2018 edition won by Brooks Koepka). The par-70 behemoth is expected to measure around 7, 440 yards this year (which is basically run-of-the-mill by USGA standards). The fairways are relatively generous but firm conditions will ensure that decent tee-shots may still runoff into the deep, unforgiving fescue (you will need a miracle out of some of those lies). The poa-annua putting surfaces are the stuff of legend, featuring steep, dramatic slopes that were originally conceived for pre-modern speeds. These greens will run at slick tournament speed this week, meaning players will need to negotiate some hairy situations (and I haven’t even mentioned some of the steep runoff areas).

Gone with the wind

But perhaps Shinnecock’s greatest defence lies in Mother Nature herself. The exposed, linksy layout is open to extreme gusts of wind coming in off the Peconic Bay and Atlantic Ocean. Honestly, when the wind gets up, it can be virtually impossible to play here. During the 2018 event, the USGA had to apologize after gusty conditions and ludicrous pin placements forced them to water the greens in between groups. This year’s event promises to be no different, with gusts of up to 35mph expected in Friday’s play. Elite ball-striking will be essential, while astute course management and the ability to manage winds will also be massive factors. While great putting will be useful, the insanity of some of these slopes could make that metric a bit of a leveller (I would be more inclined to look at scrambling stats).

The Main Narratives

World No.1 Scottie Scheffler will go into this year’s US Open without a win since the opening tournament of the campaign. He has knocked on the door, notably picking up three successive runner-up finishes that included the Players and Masters. But he has looked uncharacteristically human in recent weeks, letting his temper get the better of him on a few occasions. Rory McIlroy has barely played since claiming his 2nd successive Green Jacket, finishing in the top 20 at Quail Hollow before contending at Aronimink. It’s honestly impossible to gauge how the Northern Irishman’s game is going to hold up this week. With question marks over both Scheffler and McIlroy, this could be anybody’s week.

Brooks Koepka- who won at Shinnecock in 2018- just withdrew from the Canadian Open due to a hand issue. Is it precautionary or is it going to seriously impair his US Open preparations? Xander Schauffele is due a big result while the likes of Chris Gotterup and defending champ J.J. Spaun will look to bludgeon the course into submission. Aaron Rai will look to back up his remarkable triumph at Aronimink with another gritty showing on a course that demands attention to detail. He will form part of a potent English contingent featuring the likes of Rose, Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick. Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm will lead the LIV contingent this week. DeChambeau has missed the cut in each of the last two majors while Rahm probably should have pushed Aaron Rai a bit harder down the stretch at the PGA Championship. They both know what it takes to navigate these conditions and I expect one of them- or perhaps both- to be in the thick of it this week. I don’t even have time to get into the metronomic Russel Henley or the resurgent Wyndham Clark. This looks set to be one of the most fascinating US Opens in some time.

Past Winners
2025: J.J. Spaun (-1)
2024: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2023: Wyndham Clark (-10)
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)

Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (4.6/1), Rory McIlroy (8.8/1), Jon Rahm (11/1), Cameron Young (16/1), Xander Schauffele (16/1)

Value Bets

Matt Fitzpatrick- To Win (22/1)

Matt Fitzpatrick appears to be back and ready to contend again. The tee-to-green virtuoso prepared for this week’s US Open in excellent fashion, storming up the leaderboard to finish runner-up to Bud Cauley at the RBC Canadian Open (his 2nd runner-up of the season after the Players). A three-time winner this season, Fitzpatrick has turned into one of the most consistent golfers on the planet. He has the heart of a grinder, conquering The Country Club en route to this 2022 US Open triumph. And he looks like a perfect statistical match for this daunting Shinnecock test. He is currently 4th on tour for SG: Approach and 6th for SG: Around-the-Green (while also ranking in the top 10 for Driving Accuracy). I expect the stoic Englishman to be a real threat in conditions that will demand patience and resourcefulness.

Russell Henley- To Win (35/1)

Russell Henley feels like a no-brainer this week. He recently returned to the winner’s circle at Colonial, negotiating the tough test to win at 12-under-par. Henley has also been inching closer to a major breakthrough, picking up six top ten finishes in his last 14 outings (including a career-best T3 finish at this year’s Masters). He ranks 1st on tour for Driving Accuracy and should be able to avoid most of the highly penal fescue. He has been deadly on approach from the 150-175 range and ranks 1st on tour in Scrambling. His ability to hustle in and around the greens should give him a huge advantage on these Shinnecock ski slopes.

Cameron Smith- To Win (80/1)

These odds are proof positive of an anti-LIV bias in the betting markets. The former Open Champion has found a semblance of consistency on the LIV Tour this year, picking up six top 20 finishes. He was right in the major mix at Aronimink, fading slightly on the back-nine before settling for a T7 finish. And he just produced his best performance of the season at a challenging Valderrama, finishing in a tie for 5th at the LIV Andalucia event. Sure, Smith missed the cut woefully when the US Open was last played at Shinnecock in 2018. But he is a major champion now and his tee-to-green game and links credentials auger well for a surprise run at the title.

The Man to Beat- Tommy Fleetwood- To Win (19/1)

This is as good a time as any for Tommy Fleetwood to finally break his major championship duck. The reigning FedEx Cup champion hasn’t quite exploded into this year in the way that many expected. But he has been an exemplar of consistency throughout, nearly picking up his 7th top ten finish at the RBC Canadian Open (he faded a bit in contention). Still, Shinnecock is going to be an entirely different beast, and Fleetwood has tamed it in the past, shooting a course-record 63 in his closing round in 2018. He finished just one shot behind Koepka that day and I don’t see why he can’t repeat that level of performance. His accuracy and elite iron play should give him a chance to keep his card clean and possibly emerge victorious. He is a tee-to-green titan and his ability to play in linksy, windy conditions is almost unparalleled.