The third-placed Lions will be doing all they can to keep pace with fourth-placed Leinster in Round 17 of the URC in Dublin on Saturday.
To Win
Leinster | Draw | Lions
Handicap
Leinster | Lions
Match context
The Lions have a massive challenge ahead of them if they are to hold on to their top four URC standing over the final two rounds of the regular season. Having had far and away their best campaign since joining the competition, which has already yielded a first SA Shield title, the Pride must now face the daunting task of taking on Leinster and Munster away from home
The Joburg franchise really are in an agonising position right now, with the anticipation of these last two games surely having instilled a sense of dread in their supporters. The fact that they’re placed third at this stage is a brilliant achievement, but the catch is that they must now face two previous champions of the tournament on their home patches.
For further context, the men in red have so far accumulated 53-log points. That’s just three-points off leaders the Stormers, but so fine are the margins at this stage that even the seventh-placed Bulls are just four points behind. To further ramp up the pressure, their opponents this week are level with them on points, albeit one place behind on points difference.
Speaking of the Leinstermen, they head into this clash off the back of their European Rugby Champions Cup semi-final with Toulon, with many players coming away with bruised and battered bodies. Robbie Henshaw has been ruled out after being stretchered off in the 29-25 victory, while the jury is still out on the availability of Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan and Tommy O’Brien.
The make-up of the team Leo Cullen decides to select this week will be fascinating, with a home URC playoff, as mentioned, far from guaranteed at this stage. This, coupled with the after-effects of their brutal semi-final, means it’s anybody’s guess as to which personnel are picked for this tie at the RDS Arena.
Players to watch
Andrew Porter (Leinster)
Whether Porter is rested or not this week remains to be seen after the loosehead’s quite brilliant performance in the Champions Cup semi-final that went a long way to securing the result for his team. He dominated Toulon tighthead Kyle Sinckler at scrum time, and fans will be baying for a chance to see the experienced Ireland international go toe-to-toe with Lions behemoth Asenathi Ntlabakanye at the set piece.
If the 30-year-old does take to the field, the Lions’ front row would do well to pay him particular attention.
Henco van Wyk (Lions)
The Lions outside centre will need to be dialled in from the get-go in the face of Leinster’s intricate attacking plays, with his organisation, communication and decision-making on defence likely to set the tone for his team. Despite being just 25-years-of-age, van Wyk has been around the block and his experience will be vital as his team strives for what would be an almighty upset.
As one of the Lions’ most exciting players on both sides of the ball, and with a Springbok debut surely not too far in the future, van Wyk’s performance will undoubtedly be worth keeping an eye on against one of, if not the best team in the competition.
Tactical overview
Leinster may be vulnerable after their battle with Toulon and the Lions’ pack will be looking to capitalise by bringing as much physicality to the party as possible. If the tourists can front up and maintain their concentration, they will be right in it.
The Leinster lineout is the third best in the competition, while they showed in their Champions Cup semi just how potent their scrum can be, and the Lions will need to be accurate and intelligent in countering whatever the defending champions throw at them in this facet.
The Irish side claimed a 24-6 win in this fixture last season, but things should be tighter on Saturday given how highly motivated the visitors will be. As previously mentioned, the makeup of Cullen’s matchday squad will be telling. If he opts for a similar lineup as last week and the Lions deliver to their highest standard, Leinster’s energy levels could dip late on.
Still though, their home ground advantage and superior experience should be enough to get them over the line regardless.
Prediction
Leinster to take this one on the board and down a valiant Lions outfit by a whisker.
