Another slam, another triumph for the Sinneraz rivalry. Sinner fell to Djokovic in the Aussie Open semis, negating the possibility of a 4th successive Sinner-Alcaraz showdown.
Still, prevailing wisdom dictated that 38-year-old Djokovic may get the better of one of the big two; not both. And the prevailing wisdom held out. The affair made for grand theatre, as Alcaraz became the youngest man to ever complete a career slam whilst also denying Djokovic that elusive 25th slam (he feels like he has been hunting that for a decade by now). But am I the only person getting a bit antsy with the men’s game? We have just emerged from the era of the ‘Big Three’, where you had the same protagonists in every story (Murray and Wawrinka notwithstanding). It feels like we are moving from one period of gross predictability into another. In that spirit, I have decided to make a list of five guys who are most capable of breaking the Sinneraz Grand Slam stranglehold this year.
1. Novak Djokovic
This is a bit of a no-brainer. It’s crazy that the 38-year-old surviving member of the ‘Big Three’ is the man who looks most likely to usurp the new titans of the game. Is that more reflective of Djokovic’s greatness or the other guy’s flaws? Perhaps a bit of both. Either way, Djokovic showed that he certainly still has it in him to land that coveted 25th slam. Having said that, Margaret Court must be growing more confident of sharing that record with every passing slam. Djokovic will likely still need to beat both guys if he wishes to hoist another one of tennis’ biggest trophies. But beating Sinner was significant. The Italian ousted him from two slams last year, thrashing him in Paris before eliminating him in London. One would think Djokovic’s best hopes of picking up a slam would come on the natural surfaces (probably Wimbledon). It will be hard for the Serbian ironman to mount a serious challenge against these guys in New York (wear and tear is ruthlessly exposed in the year’s final slam).
2. Jack Draper
I know that many people would be expecting Alex Zverev’s name right about now. But I just have a feeling that Draper is primed for a deep Grand Slam run later this year (at either SW19 or Flushing Meadows). Draper has barely played any tennis since pulling out of last year’s US Open with an arm injury. He just won his first match since the US Open, claiming a Davis Cup qualifying win against unfancied opposition. In the immediate aftermath of that win, Draper withdrew from the upcoming Rotterdam Open. But that’s something that gives me more confidence than concern. The 24-year-old has had a plethora of injuries in his young career (it almost feels like someone out there is sitting with a voodoo doll of him). In the past, he has probably been a bit guilty of rushing back into the fray too early. But the 2024 US Open semifinalist wants to perform at optimum levels when he returns. He has acknowledged that the pressure to emulate Sinner and Alcaraz perhaps pushed him over the edge last year. I still think that his power-based game could destabilize the top guys.
3. Alex Zverev
Why did I put a clearly undercooked Draper ahead of perennial Grand Slam contender Alex Zverev? It all lies in those four consecutive words: perennial Grand Slam contender. How many more times can Zverev go to the well and come back empty? Ten times a Grand Slam semifinalist and three times a beaten finalist, Zverev’s career has been defined by Grand Slam near-misses. I don’t think you have to be Freud to realize that he is holding onto some deep Grand Slam trauma. And it’s going to take some time for him to recover from that semifinal capitulation against a physically ailing Alcaraz. It’s getting harder to visualize Zverev capturing his maiden slam. Still, Roland Garros presents him with probably his best chance. He reached four successive semifinals there between 2021 and 2024, culminating in that controversial defeat to Alcaraz in the 2024 final. That may be his best chance, though I wouldn’t put too much money on it.
4. Ben Shelton
I have already talked about one big-serving lefty in Jack Draper. Now let’s turn our attention to another: Ben Shelton. The bombastic American appears to be doing all the right things in his quest to finally become a Grand Slam champ. He has added dimension to his game over the last few years, becoming far more rally-resistant while improving his volleying skills. And he is slowly building that Grand Slam pedigree, reaching the quarterfinal stage or better in three of his last five Grand Slam outings. A two-time Grand Slam semifinalist, Shelton clearly understands how to elevate his game for the big occasion. He needs to work on his consistency if he wishes to usurp the Sinneraz duopoly. He sprayed it everywhere in his Aussie Open quarterfinal defeat to Sinner, committing 34 unforced errors to the Italian’s 16. He needs to learn to find a better balance between gung-ho exuberance and courtcraft. But I fancy him to make a deep run at either SW19 or Flushing Meadows. He has improved incrementally at Wimbledon in his three appearances, reaching the 2nd round, 4th round and quarterfinals respectively. A former US Open semifinalist, Shelton clearly knows how to harness the power of those excitable New Yorkers.
5. Lorenzo Musetti
If it wasn’t for a left-abductor injury, Djokovic’s recent Aussie Open run would have likely ended at the quarterfinal stage. The wily Italian has really evolved on the artificial surfaces of late, reaching back-to-back Grand Slam quarterfinals in New York and Melbourne. Musetti has proven to be a true Grand Slam grinder, reaching the quarterfinals or better in four of his last seven Grand Slam appearances. But the one where he could turn dreams into reality is the French Open. He was the 2nd best clay-court player in the world last year (behind Alcaraz), reaching the final in Monte Carlo prior to back-to-back semifinal runs in Madrid and Rome. He then looked more than competitive against Alcaraz in the French Open semi’s, taking the first set before injury forced him to retire in the 4th. He has wisely decided to ditch the South American clay-court swing as he looks to get himself into fighting shape for Roland Garros. Put it this way: I think he is closer to winning in Paris than Fritz is to winning at Wimbledon (or de Minaur winning at any of the slams, for that matter).
