Tonight, Arsenal host Villa in what has turned into an unexpected top-of-the-table grudge match.
Both teams are fresh off gritty league wins, with Arsenal triumphing over Brighton while Villa produced yet more stirring heroics in their victory at Chelsea. Arsenal are somehow keeping the chasing pack at bay despite not being at their fluid best. Villa have shown remarkable durability in their quest to be the league’s first surprise-package winners since Leicester City. There is plenty of history between these clubs in recent years, with former Arsenal manager Unai Emery developing a knack for overcoming his former employers. This promises to be a showstopper.
Arsenal doing it ugly while creating a fortress at home
Whatever your opinion on this current Arsenal side, you must admire their stubborn resilience. They are currently top of both the Premier League and Champions League standings and find themselves in a League Cup semifinal. And they have managed to achieve this without playing their best football while dealing with a plethora of injuries. It will be interesting to see how Arteta manages to juggle his squad as the season progresses. Their current title challenge is built on solid home form: their win against Brighton made it nine wins in ten matches at the Emirates for Arteta’s men.
Managing injuries
It’s strange to think that Arsenal’s current title challenge has been built on a rock-solid defence (they have barely been able to start the same back-four twice). Arteta had to make a couple of enforced changes against Brighton, with fullbacks Jurrien Timber and Califiori picking up ‘strange’ knocks ahead of kickoff. Declan Rice deputized manfully at right-back while Lewis-Skelly looked slightly shakier in the left-back role. It remains to be seen whether Timber or Califiori will be back; Arteta has been typically coy about it. My guess is that Timber will play while Lewis-Skelly continues at left-back.
A huge boost and one lingering concern
Perhaps the biggest thing to come out of Arsenal’s win against Brighton- Odegaard goal notwithstanding- was Gabriel’s return. The towering central defender came on to help see out the game on Saturday, bringing that aura of physical dominance that will be essential against this athletic Villa side. Now all Arteta needs to do is get a tune out of big-money signing Viktor Gyokeres. The Swede has scored just five goals in 16 Premier League games and has struggled to keep up with the demanding pace of the league. On a few occasions this season, he has left me with a previously unthinkable impression: geez, they miss Havertz. That says everything.
Aston Villa rewriting history
What more can you say about Unai Emery’s all-conquering Villa side? Their win at Stamford Bridge made it eleven successive wins in all competitions, matching a club record dating back to 1897 and 1910. Their comeback win against Chelsea- I’m going to say it- bore the hallmark of champions. They were completely dominated in the first half and should have been more than a goal behind going into the 2nd stanza. But Emery delivered yet another tactical masterclass, making a triple substitution on the hour mark that completely altered proceedings, creating more width and allowing Ollie Watkins to pounce. With Watkins rounding into form and the likes of Rogers, Buendia and McGinn in perpetual good form, you could make a strong argument that the Villa side is looking more threatening that Arsenal going forward.
Emery has Arteta’s number
Aston Villa have become Arsenal’s bogey team in recent years, winning three of their last five meetings. The last of those victories came less than a month ago, when Buendia’s last-gasp winner giving Villa a narrow 2-1 win in the Midlands. Moreover, Villa will move south having taken four points in their last two trips to the Emirates (which included a title-ruining 2-0 win back in April 2024). It feels like Emery has a major tactical edge over his managerial counterpart. Arteta has more resources at his disposal but doesn’t affect games with his decision-making in the same way. If anything, Arteta is too reactive and too prone to going into his shell. Emery seems to have more in-game impact.
Concerns going into this game
Obviously, it’s going to be tough for the Villains to extend their winning streak to twelve matches. Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara are set to miss the clash due to yellow-card suspensions, adding to an absentee list that includes Mings, Torres, Barkley and Guessand. Onana will be a natural replacement for Kamara while Bogarde will likely fill in at right back (that could give Arsenal an opportunity down that left-hand side). And putting aside all of Watkins’ last-gasp heroics against Chelsea, Villa only had an xG of 1.05 against Chelsea. Sure, earlier I said that Villa, on current form, have a more dangerous attacking lineup. But that type of attacking performance is unlikely to get the job done against the best defensive team in the league.
Final Verdict
Arsenal to win 3-1
I think this could be a touch too far for Villa. They have been tremendous during this recent run, picking up massive wins against the likes of Arsenal, City and Chelsea. But the recent congestion of fixtures and absentees could lead to a drop-off here. There’s only so many times that the likes of Rogers and Watkins can bail them out when they haven’t been on the front foot. Arsenal have some big names possibly returning and are due a big performance.
