BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS BEST BETS DEL MAR SATURDAY

BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS BEST BETS DEL MAR SATURDAY

Race 4 PNC BANK BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT (Grade 1)

No4 TAMARA
Trainer: Richard Mandella – Jockey: Mike Smith

Late running long shots have dominated this race in the three times it’s been contested here. With Kopion targeting the Sprint, Mandella looks to TAMARA to bring her A-game to the table. Forcing tactics best suit the daughter of Bolt D’Oro who in fairness didn’t have to break sweat to put away her foes as a 2-5 shot in the Grade 3 Chillingworth at Santa Anita. What that has done is boosted the confidence level of the selection who can parry the challenge of SWEET AZTECA. This 1400 metres is the latter’s optimum distance but she was impressive when scoring over a shorter trip in her prep here a couple of months ago. HOPE ROAD enters calculations following her first win of the year in the Ballerina at Saratoga, and should Tamara and Sweet Azteca cut each others throats could be the one to profit.

Prediction: 1st TAMARA, 2nd Sweet Azteca, 3rd Hope Road

Race 5 PREVEGAN BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT (Grade 1)

No3 ARIZONA BLAZE
Trainer: Adrian Murray – Jockey: David Egan

This is a race the overseas horses can dominate and it has a habit of producing an upset. Of the bigger priced contenders this time SHE’S QUALITY has to go into the mix, as the Acclamation filly has frequently cut it at the top level, including when third in the Abbaye. KHAADEM has shipped from Kentucky after scoring in Keeneland’s Grade 2 Woodford and didn’t have to go into quarantine. But the key man in the puzzle is trainer Adrian Murray who fields BUCANERO FUERTE and ARIZONA BLAZE. The former finished two places behind his stablemate in third in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh and hasn’t been as lucky with the draw. ARIZONA BLAZE is handily berthed in the 3 slot and might find last year’s unlucky in running second MOTORIOUS as his main barrier to a famous success.

Prediction: 1st ARIZONA BLAZE, 2nd Motorious, 3rd Bucanero Fuerte, 4th Khaadem

Race 6 CYGAMES BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT (Grade 1)

No1 KOPION
Trainer: Richard Mandella – Jockey: Mike Smith

Mandella’s decision to head for the Sprint with KOPION can pay off on spades as the lightly raced filly, who is versatile regarding the trip, takes on males in preference to contesting the Filly & Mare Sprint. IMAGINATION benefitted from a return to 1200 metres at Santa Anita and the way he finished suggests he’s going to be right at home staying at that distance for Bob Baffert. Defending champion STRAIGHT NO CHASER can never be safely left out, and though his 2025 campaign hasn’t gone exactly to plan he needs leaving in all permutations.

Prediction: 1st KOPION, 2nd Imagination, 3rd Straight No Chaser

Race 7 LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF (Grade 1)

No1 NITROGEN
Trainer: Mark Casse – Jockey: Jose Ortiz

There’s been a buzz trackside about Bob Baffert’s hot favourite SEISMIC BEAUTY who on her last three starts has taken her form to a new level, culminating in a Grade 1 triumph at this track in August. But there’s a serious barrier to success in the form of NITROGEN, who might have added the Spinster to her CV had she not drifted off a true line in the closing stages. DORTH VADER has had her chance compromised to some extend by a wide draw while GIN GIN brings solid credentials to the table and appeals as the pick of the longer priced runners.

Prediction: 1st NITROGEN, 2nd Seismic Beauty, 3rd Gin Gin, 4th Dorth Vader

Race 8 LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP TURF (Grade 1)

No1 REBEL’S ROMANCE
Trainer: Charlie Appleby – Jockey: William Buick

Triple Oaks winner MINNIE HAUK has dominated the ante post market and will start favourite to get her career back on track under Christophe Soumillon. The Belgian was highly complimentary about the filly in conversation on Thursday, stating that it was only through an astute piece of tactical riding from Michael Barzalona that she was denied in the closing stages of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. ‘Soumy’ believes Aidan O’Brien’s filly is top class, and can swoop to conquer in the stretch. Tell William Buick that and he has different ideas aboard Godolphin talisman REBEL’S ROMANCE, who has won in Dubai, Hong Kong, Qatar, the UK and indeed in the corresponding race 12 months ago. The seven-year-old will need to get to the front, but his track craft can assist in that scenario happening, while he is a dogged foe to have to put to the sword in the heat of battle, with the winning post in sight. He’s been in great form on the track and I fancy him to become the first triple Breeders’ Cup winner. Godolphin’s EL CORDOBES won the Sword Dancer, and while no match for Rebel’s Romance in the Turf Classic could be one to prosper should there be a burn out.

Prediction: 1st REBEL’S ROMANCE, 2nd Minnie Hauk, 3rd El Cordobes

Race 9 LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC (Grade 1)

No1 FIERCENESS
Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Jockey: John Velazquez

The loss of Sovereignty with a temperature is a blow to the best race of the day, but even without Bill Mott’s star this is a contest to savour. SIERRA LEONE dramatically wrestled the prize away from FIERCENESS in 2024 and though things haven’t gone exactly to plan for him this year nothing has trained better out on the track this week. Chad Brown’s star looks ready to shine again. FIERCENESS broke a record that had stood for 150 years when reappearing at Churchill Downs, and though beaten in the Met Mile he had a genuine excuse when getting buzzed up after a rabbit pestered him on the outside in the Whitney. However, he put all that behind him with a superb display in the Pacific Classic to show he is right back in the groove. Stablemates MINDFRAME and ANTIQUARIAN met in the Jockey Gold Cup which the latter won after Mindframe was hampered close to the start and lost his jockey. Those placings may well be reversed. FOREVER YOUNG looked unlucky in this last year and has enjoyed a perfect prep in Japan. He’s easily the best winning chance from his country of their runners this time. One to consider at a price is JOURNALISM, who after chasing the shadows of Sovereignty and Fierceness gets a new pilot.

Prediction: 1st FIERCENESS, 2nd Sierra Leone, 3rd Forever Young, 4th Journalism, 5th Mindframe

Race 10 FANDUEL BREEDERS’ CUP MILE (Grade 1)

No3 SAHLAN
Trainer: Francis Graffard – Jockey: Mickael Barzalona

NOTABLE SPEECH looked unlucky in this race 12 months ago, and having overcome a slow start to land the Woodbine Mile in his prep is going to head the market. I’m not too blown away by the value of that form and will take him on with SAHLAN, who has looked assured in his work here through the week. The Wootton Bassett colt defeated older opponents in the Prix du Moulin which confirms that rate at which he’s improving. He’s drawn alongside Notable Speech in stall 3. THE LION IN WINTER showed Aidan O’Brien he was a non stayer when beaten in the Dante but has warmed to his task with a couple of huge runs in defeat latterly in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. He does however have it to find with SAHLAN on earlier running. ONE STRIPE finished fifth in the Woodbine Mile and can’t beat Notable Speech on that evidence. He has however looked good in his preparation here and at 50-1 could pep up the exotic returns in this for owners Hollywoodbets and trainer Graham Motion.

Prediction: 1st SAHLAN, 2nd Notable Speech, 3rd The Lion In Winter, 4th One Stripe

Race 11 BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE (Grade 1)

No3 NYSOS
Trainer: Bob Baffert – Jockey: Flavien Prat

Although there was an upset in this race last year, the Dirt Mile threw up winning favourites between 2020 and 2023. In NYSOS Baffert has a perfect specimen to further boost that statistic. Though yet to win a Grade 1 he has a very good overall record of success and a repeat of his San Diego Handicap triumph over a mile here in July would make him hard to beat. He’s also favourably drawn. FULL SERRANO will try to repeat from the front his 2024 success in this race and will be happier back at 1600 metres than when beaten in a Grade 1 at Santa Anita. MYSTIK DAN took out the Grade 2 Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs last time, making him a contender.

Prediction: 1st NYSOS, 2nd Full Serrano, 3rd Mystik Dan

Race 12 MAKER’S MARK BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF (Grade 1)

No9 CINDERELLA’S DREAM
Trainer: Charlie Appleby – Jockey: William Buick

CINDERELLA’S DREAM might be running in the final Breeders’ Cup race but I doubt she will be late for the ball. The daughter of Shamardal is in peak condition as she bids to further add to her value in the breeding sheds. The Falmouth Stakes winner will enjoy the quicker ground and is her trainer’s idea of his best chance of a winner at the meeting. SEE THE FIRE can get into the argument although from stall 14 she will probably have to have to be restrained and then tucked in. The Prix de l’Opera runner-up should finish with a wet sail. BEDTIME STORY is having a third quick run but some of her earlier form makes her of interest as the pick of the roughies. The selection’s stablemate DIAMOND RAIN is a big unit whose chances will improve if she can establish an early lead.

Prediction: 1st CINDERELLA’S DREAM, 2nd See The Fire, 3rd Bedtime Story, 4th Diamond Rain