Mirra Andreeva’s visa issues came back to haunt her, as Elena Rybakina pinched the last WTA Finals spot with a semifinal run at the Pan Pacific Open. The Russian has looked burnt out for months and may come to look back on this disappointment as a blessing in disguise.
Kazakh Rybakina caused a commotion after beating Mboko in that all-important quarterfinal, withdrawing from the remainder of the event due to a ‘back’ issue (in what felt like another subtle protest against the WTA Tour’s sadistic scheduling changes). In any event, I will now offer a brief preview for the upcoming season-ending showpiece, looking at nominal favourites and potential dark horses.
Aryna Sabalenka
YTD Record: 59-11
Titles won: 4
Does World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka really need a WTA Finals title to solidify her status as the world’s best hardcourt player? With four Grand Slam titles in three years- probably not. It just feels slightly sacrilegious that she is yet to taste victory in the season-ending showpiece. She has reached the semifinals in each of the last three seasons, finishing runner-up to Gauff back in 2022. The reigning US Open champion leads the tour in tournament wins (4) and finals (8) this season. These medium-fast hardcourts will suit her to a tee, giving her enough leverage for her powerful groundstrokes while allowing her to get into position in defence. This could be her year.
Iga Swiatek
YTD Record: 61-15
Titles won: 3
This year has felt a little Alice in Wonderland for former World No.1 Iga Swiatek. She lost out in the one tournament that everyone thought she would win (the French Open) and managed to finally claim the title that nobody thought she was capable of (Wimbledon). She benefitted from diminished expectations in London, hitting the ball flatter and regaining her lost aura. She has gone a bit quiet during the Asian Swing but will still fancy herself on any surface. The 2023 WTA Finals champ struggled in Riyadh last season, failing to get beyond the group stage for the first time since 2021. Swiatek’s poor performances in Beijing and Wuhan give me pause for concern. While you can never count her out, I just can’t envisage her claiming her 2nd season-ending crown here.
Coco Gauff
YTD Record: 47-14
Titles won: 2
Defending WTA Finals champ Coco Gauff has had a schizophrenic campaign marked by two particularly fruitful periods (the clay-court swing and recent Asian Swing). Gauff collected her 2nd Grand Slam title in Paris but struggled on the quicker surfaces for much of the season, with the serve and forehand accumulating a frankly comedic number of unforced errors. But she has looked more assured since teaming up with biomechanics expert Gavin MacMillian (who played an integral role ironing out Sabalenka’s demons). She reached the semifinals in Beijing before claiming her 2nd title of the year in Wuhan. It just feels like she has all the momentum going into this event. She has the chance of creating history this year, becoming the first woman to win back-to-back WTA Finals titles since Serena won three successive titles from 2012-2014.
Amanda Anisimova
YTD Record: 45-16
Titles Won: 2
The Cinderella Story of this year’s tour, Amanda Anisimova’s resurgence has been a joy to behold. Anisimova- this year’s only debutant- has been the most consistent player over the last four months, picking up runner-up finishes at Wimbledon and the US Open before claiming a 2nd WTA 1000 title of the year in Beijing. The American is hitting the ball like she has a vendetta against it (especially off that backhand wing). Her serve has become a legitimate weapon, and she appears to have found remarkable self-belief (a miracle when you consider the way she was double-bagled at Wimbledon). I can’t see her not progressing to the final-four.
Jessica Pegula
YTD Record: 50-19
Titles won: 3
Pegula has been a bastion of consistency this year, putting aside indifferent Grand Slam form to make her 4th successive WTA Finals appearance. Pegula has been typically strong on her favourite surface, reaching four finals (including runner-up finishes in WTA 1000 events in Miami and Wuhan). I just think that she could struggle against so many in-form players. She toiled on these surfaces last season, losing both of her matches before withdrawing due to injury. She lost all three matches in 2022 before finishing runner-up in 2023. I just think she is a bit more one-dimensional than some of the other leading players (which is exacerbated when you play many high-quality matches in a congested period).
Elena Rybakina
YTD Record: 51-19
Titles won: 1
Kazakh powerhouse Elena Rybakina has pulled off a robbery that would make Danny Ocean envious, winning in Ningbo before reaching the semifinals in Tokyo to secure her 3rd successive WTA Finals appearance. Rybakina has had a frustrating 18 months or so, often capitulating in seemingly unassailable positions (I will never fully understand how she lost to Mboko in Montreal earlier this season). But the do-or-die nature of her WTA Finals qualification may be exactly what she needed. Blessed with a huge serve and forehand, an in-form Rybakina is not to be trifled with.
Madison Keys
YTD Record: 37-13
Titles won: 2
There wasn’t a dry eye in the house when Keys won the Aussie Open, finally nabbing the Grand Slam that had proven elusive in her career. Keys was electrifying during the opening salvos of the season, going on a tearaway 16-match winning streak. The 29-year-old couldn’t maintain that momentum, failing to reach another final after that stunning opening chapter. She was dumped out of the first round of the US Open by Renata Zarazua and hasn’t played since (she has been dealing with a wrist issue). As Martina Navratilova has pointed out, she is probably ensuring that her body remains in the best condition for her Aussie Open defence (which is only a few months away now). She is going to be quite undercooked and may suffer against this level of competition. Still, it’s encouraging to see Keys making her first WTA Finals appearance since 2016.
Jasmine Paolini
YTD Record: 43-18
Titles won: 1
The little engine that could, Italian pocket-rocket Jasmine Paolini will be playing in her 2nd successive WTA Finals. The Italian hasn’t enjoyed the Grand Slam success she enjoyed last season, where she picked up two Grand Slam runner-up finishes. She has just been a consistent presence in quarterfinals and semifinals, making the season-ending showpiece of the back of just two final appearances (she won in Rome and finished runner-up in Cincinnati). The diminutive Italian has one of the most deceptively powerful forehands in the business and cannot be underestimated. Still, I think it’s going to be tough for her to juggle the dual demands of singles and doubles action.
