American baseliner Brandon Nakashima was made to dig deep in his opening tie with Jordan Thompson, coming back from a set down to overcome the nuggety Aussie 6-7, 7-6, 6-2.
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Japan Open
Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 27th January
Brandon Nakashima 0.78 vs Marton Fucsovics 1.00
He wasn’t at his fluid best in the cagey clash, saving nine of ten break-points to improve his 2025 record to 29-23. Nakashima has been a bastion of consistency this season, reaching the quarterfinal stage or better on seven occasions (three of which he converted into final-four appearances). Nakashima’s issue is converting all this high-quality tennis into final and titles. For all his consistent play, Nakashima is too passive in crucial moments, surrendering the initiative to his opponents (like he did against Tabilo in last week’s Chengdu Open semifinal). The durable baseliner just lacks the firepower to crack the upper echelons of the games (as evidenced by the fact that he is yet to beat a top-ten player this season). Still, he tends to fare well against lowly opposition, using his solid serve and courtcraft to wear down opponents.
Hungarian ironman Marton Fucsovics produced one of his best performances of the season in his main-draw opener, coming from a set down to take down an out-of-form Frances Tiafoe 3-6, 6-1, 7-5. The Hungarian grew in confidence as the match progressed, winning an impressive 56% of his 2nd serve return points. The former Wimbledon quarterfinalist has largely struggled this year but burst into life at the Winston-Salem Open, winning his first career hardcourt title. He failed to build on that surprise victory, losing comprehensively to Shapovalov at the US Open. He then suffered Davis Cup embarrassment, losing to two players ranked outside the top 150 during Hungary’s tie with Austria. Fucsovics looks like a man on a mission this week, winning both of his qualifiers in straight sets before that hard-fought three-set win over Tiafoe. Physically resilient and mentally tough, Fucsovics will look to match Nakashima’s relentless energy,
The Verdict: Fucsovics to win in three at 3.4- This will be their first career meeting. I think that Fucsovics could produce a bit of a surprise. The mercurial customer absorbed Tiafoe’s power with minimum fuss while Nakashima laboured against a dogged Thompson. If Fucsovics can remain patient, he could create openings against the American.
Holger Rune (3) 2/1 vs Ethan Quinn 0.37
I still firmly believe that Holger Rune- at his best- has what it takes to compete with the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz. Injuries and ego have just got in his way in recent years, with a revolving door of coaches highlighting his personality ‘quirks’. He has shown flashes of brilliance this season, finishing runner-up at the Indian Wells Masters before taking down Alcaraz in straight-sets in the Barcelona final. He also hinted at a deep Grand Slam run, reaching the 4th round of the Aussie and French Opens. But a longstanding knee issue caused him to surrender a two-set lead in his first-round Wimbledon clash with Nicolas Jarry. He reached the Cincy quarters but was ousted by Struff at the US Open. He continued that downward trend with underwhelming performances in the Laver and Davis Cups. He appeared a bit more composed in his Beijing opener, taking down Serb Hamad Medjedovic 7-6, 6-1. At his best, Rune is a well-rounded player capable of mixing it up on all surfaces. He possesses brilliant power and enviable variety, and is able to switch between pure offence and counterpunching. Can he remain composed (and injury free) in this latter portion of the season?
21-year-old American Ethan Quinn continued his incremental progression with an excellent first-round win over compatriot Alex Michelson. Quinn served beautifully in the 7-5, 6-2 win, firing ten aces and winning 81% of his first-serve points. He was also magnificent on return, winning around 40% of his first-serve return points! The 2023 NCAA champ struggled when he initially turned professional, taking some time to realize that he couldn’t just blow pros away with a big serve. He toiled last season but ended the year on a high, claiming his maiden Challenger title in Champaign. He has carried on making small gains this year, winning a tour-level match here and there to inch his way to the precipice of the top 100. He has improved his movement this year but could still do with a bit more structure when things go awry.
The Verdict: Rune to win in three at 2.6- This will be their first career meeting. This could be exactly the type of banana peel that Rune has been known to slip on. Quinn will feel hugely motivated by that upset win over Michelson and knows victory here will go a long way to raising his profile. I expect the volatile Rune to dip in and out of the match, giving Quinn the chance to pinch a set (especially if he serves like he did against Michelson). I just feel that Rune’s variety will prove decisive.
