Golf’s most famous team event is finally upon us, as Luke Donald’s Europe look to defend their Ryder Cup title against Keegan Bradley’s USA side. The biennial event was a bit of a unicorn in sporting terms, with players competing purely out of patriotic duty.
This year’s event will mark a slight departure, with the US side receiving a stipend for competing (thank you Patrick Cantlay). In any event, Donald’s team will be looking to buck recent history in their trip to New York, looking to become the first Ryder Cup side to win on foreign soil since Jose Maria Olazabal’s men pulled off the ‘Miracle of Medinah’ in 2012.
Europe won comfortably in Rome, running out 16½ to 11½ victors. But they are going to be up against it this week, likely walking into one of the most hostile and toxic atmospheres in Ryder Cup history. The American galleries are well known for their rambunctious behaviour, but this year’s event will feel like it’s on steroids. Firstly, Bethpage Black is situated in New York, home to some of the most incorrigible sports fanatics on planet earth: the recent US Open tennis tournament will give you some idea of what the players should expect. Secondly, this is Trump’s America, which guarantees an uptick in boorish American exceptionalism. I’m also certain that Trump- a keen golfing enthusiast- will make an appearance this week. Yay.
A Brief History of the Ryder Cup
Yes, this is the obligatory historical information dump that comes with any self-respecting Ryder Cup preview. This year will mark the 45th staging of golf’s most prestigious team event. The Ryder Cup is nearing 100 years of age and was originally contested between Great Britain and the United States. But that quickly turned somewhat farcical, with the USA completely dominating the early iterations of this event. But the entire fabric of the competition changed in 1979, with organizers wisely allowing continental European players to participate in the event. And it completely revolutionized the tournament, laying the platform for the Ryder Cup as we know it today. Some of these duels have become immortalized in sporting history, boasting amazing monikers such as the ‘War on the Shore’ or the aforementioned ‘Miracle of Medinah’. America destroyed the European outfit in their last clash on American soil, picking up a record 19-9 win at Whistling Straits back in 2021.
The Format
To win the Ryder Cup outright, each side must get 14 ½ points out of a total 28. Europe only requires 14 points to retain the trophy. Each of the first two days consists of two sessions. The first session of each day will consist of four fourball (better-ball) matches while the second session of each day will consist of four foursomes (alternate-shot) matches. The final day will then consist of all 24 players duking it out in 12 straight-up singles matches. All the matches are match-play.
The Course
One of five courses at Bethpage State Park, Bethpage Black is one of the most feared courses in North America. Opened in 1936, this classic A.W. Tillinghast design- which was modified by Rees Jones- is known for narrow fairways, plentiful bunkers and punishing rough. The course also features severe elevation changes which will test player’s patience and conditioning. Having said all that, Bethpage Black has got the American Ryder Cup treatment this year and should play appreciatively easier than usual. Conventional wisdom states that American players thrive in bomber-friendly environs (think Hazeltine and Whistling Straits). The organizers have trimmed the primary rough and widened the fairways in key areas. Holes have been tactically adjusted, with the1st now a potentially drivable par-4. So, those in charge are sticking with tried and tested formulas. Honestly, I think that the course setup is becoming less important these days. Why would you encourage bombing when the European side features the likes of McIlroy, Rahm, Aberg and Hojgaard? I firmly believe that golf has become homogenized to the point of virtually eradicating these perceived continental ‘differences’. Sure, the thinner rough and wider fairways may offer a minuscule advantage to some of the Americans, but it’s honestly negligible at this point. The true battle is going to come between the ears.
Past Winners
2023: Marco Simeone Golf and Country Club: Europe bt USA 16½-11½
2021: Whistling Straits: USA beat Europe 19 to 9
2018: Le Golf National: Europe beat USA 17 ½ to 10 ½
2016: Hazeltine: USA beat Europe 17 to 11
2014: Gleneagles: Europe beat USA 16 ½ to 11 ½
2012: Medinah: Europe beat USA 14 ½ to 13 ½
2010: Celtic Manor: Europe beat USA 14 ½ to 13 ½
The Teams (players will have official world golf ranking next to them)
USA – To Win (0.7)
Captain: Keegan Bradley
Vice-Captains: Webb Simpson, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Kisner, Jim Furyk, Gary Woodland
Automatic Qualifiers: Scottie Scheffler (1), J.J. Spaun (7), Xander Schauffele (3), Russell Henley (4), Harris English (10), Bryson DeChambeau (21)
Captain’s Picks: Justin Thomas (5), Collin Morikawa (8), Ben Griffin (13), Cameron Young (20), Patrick Cantlay (22), Sam Burns (23)
Number of Major wins in side: 13
Keegan Bradley has probably agonized over this tournament more than any other captain in recent history. Bradley had a terrific season and was under huge pressure to become the first playing captain of the US since Arnold Palmer in 1963. I personally feel like he made the right choice. The media responsibilities of being Ryder Cup captain are tremendous and would have put too much of a burden on his play. Bradley’s side will be without some stalwart names, with the likes of Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed missing out on selection. Bradley will have four rookies on his side, with Spaun, Henley, Griffin and Young contributing to one of the least experienced US sides in recent times. However, the rookies could turn out to be Bradley’s secret weapons. Scheffler aside, the four rookies have ranked the highest (in this side) for Strokes Gained: Total these past three months. Regardless of form, the rookies may still take a few holes to acclimatize to the most unique vibe in world golf.
USA will have the luxury of having the undisputed World No.1 at their disposal: Scottie Scheffler. When the Ryder Cup was last played, Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm were probably quite even in the best-in the-world stakes. Scheffler has completely altered the trajectory of that conversation these last few years. He has been mesmeric this season, winning two Majors to go with a further four titles. The ball-striking phenom won in his last outing, outlasting fellow Ryder Cupper Ben Griffin down the straight to claim the Procore Championship. Scheffler looks primed to thrive on a course that demands outstanding tee-to-green play. While the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas will give the side some much-needed experience, Bryson DeChambeau could be vital in Bradley’s quest to reclaim the title. The outspoken LIV practitioner has been one of the most consistent players in the Majors for some time and has already started the preliminary war of words. It feels like he could be the natural successor to ‘Captain America’ Patrick Reed (who the Americans sorely missed in 2023). He will egg the crowd on, becoming the de facto mascot of the US side. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s going to hit the ball further than anyone this week.
This side has a nice overall balance to it, with a healthy blend of rookies and experienced campaigners. Also, there is a solid combination of playing styles, with the more robust hitters (DeChambeau, Spaun, etc) dovetailing with the more economic operators (Henley, Morikawa, etc). J.J. Spaun and Russell Henley are two players who could thrive this week. Reigning US Open champ J.J. Spaun has been a breakout star on this year’s US PGA Tour, finishing in the top ten in three of his last six US starts. He drives the ball like a beast and emanates natural charisma (crowds will gravitate towards him). 36-year-old Russell Henley is the antithesis of Spaun, plotting his way around the course with ruthless efficiency. While not the biggest hitter by any means, Henley very rarely makes mistakes and could prove a dream partner in both fourballs and foursomes. While the fairways will be quite generous and the rough more forgiving- Bethpage is still a formidable tree-lined course. Henley’s supreme tee-to-green game could prove a massive advantage.
Some of America’s most decorated players could prove to be their biggest liabilities. Two-time Major champ Xander Schauffele struggled with a rub injury in the early parts of the season and hasn’t been able to recapture his best form. The two-time Ryder Cupper is yet to pick up a top-five finish this season! He has struggled with the putter and may need to be managed wisely. He obviously shares a special bond with Cantlay but I wonder if Bradley will be tempted to shake things up. Fellow two-time Major champ Collin Morikawa is arguably the most out-of-form player in the entire USA squad. He has only picked one top-ten finish since the Players, playing musical chairs with caddies while engaging in petty squabbles with the media. His iron-play is still elite, but every other facet of his game has suffered. Many of his best Ryder Cup moments have come from his kinetic partnership with Dustin Johnson (who obviously won’t be in action this week). He is certainly not going to be a five-match option this week.
Overall
Team Leaders: Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau
My Players to Watch: J.J. Spaun and Russell Henley
Potential Liabilities: Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa
Europe- To Win (1.4)
Captain: Luke Donald
Vice-Captains: Thomas Bjorn, Alex Noren, Eduardo Molinari, Jose Maria Olazabal, Francesco Molinari
Automatic Qualifiers: Rory McIlroy (2), Robert MacIntyre (9), Tommy Fleetwood (6), Justin Rose (14), Rasmus Hojgaard (57), Tyrell Hatton (25)
Captain’s Picks: Shane Lowry (24), Sepp Straka (15), Ludvig Aberg (16), Viktor Hovland (11), Matt Fitzpatrick (29), Jon Rahm (73)
Number of Major wins in side: 10
Luke Donald clearly lives by the ‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ mantra. The Englishman has assembled an almost identical side to that which claimed victory at Marco Simeone. He has made just one change since 2023 (the least amount of changes in the history of the competition). In a way, this will be an identical side to the one that claimed victory in Rome, with Rasmus Hojgaard replacing twin brother Nicolai in the side (see what I did there). Donald has put much of the side’s 2023 success down to preparation (his side travelled down early to Marco Simeone to get accustomed to the vagaries of the course). They have done the same this year, voyaging down to Bethpage following the conclusion of the BMW PGA Championship. He is clearly attempting to foster a real sense of continuity and togetherness. Donald used the same four pairings for both foursomes sessions in 2023, going 7-1 in those eight matches. He will be hoping for similar success against a new-look USA side that lacks multiple Major winners Koepka and Spieth. Spieth’s absence will also break up the much-vaunted Speith-Thomas dynamic. Still, it remains to be seen how the side will hold up in the face of what could go down as the most riotous atmosphere in Ryder Cup history.
As I alluded to in my course analysis, the pros and cons of both teams have become much more homogenized in recent editions. I think that the mental side of the game is really where this year’s event is going to be won or lost. Rory McIlroy completed the career Grand Slam at Augusta and has been a bit of an enigma since then. He bounced back on home soil, claiming the Irish Open title in the build-up to this event. If Europe stands any chance this week, they need a fully engaged McIlroy, not the post-Masters doppelganger that we were all privy to. Jon Rahm claimed the individual LIV title and has been a mainstay on the European side for the past few seasons. A two-time Major winner on American soil, I feel like Rahm is arguably as crucial to Europe’s hopes this year. He seems to thrive in combustible atmospheres, scoring the most points (3.5) of any European player at Whistling Straits.
It feels like this could be a massive tournament for Tommy Fleetwood. The reigning FedEx Cup champion truly upset the American apple cart in East Lake, taking down undisputed World No.1 Scottie Scheffler to pinch the season-ending honours. It almost feels like that was the first, unofficial blow in this year’s Ryder Cup. One half of the famed ‘Moli-Wood’ partnership back in 2018, Fleetwood currently owns an impressive 7-3-2 overall Ryder Cup record. I just think his solid tee-to-green game should suit Bethpage down to a tee. I also think that Ludvig Aberg could have a part to play. The big-hitting Swede is a perfect distillation of the paradigm shift that has happened in the last 15 years or so, breaking down the notion that the European players are methodical plodders. One of the purest strikers in world golf, Aberg finished his PGA Tour season with three top 10’s in his last five appearances. I also think his partnership with Viktor Hovland could be key in quelling the American charge.
The biggest issue with the European side will be how they respond to the pressure-cooker atmosphere they are going to experience. The New York crowds will turn this into a football-esque environment, and they will have some targets in mind. 57th ranked Rasmus Hojgaard could be in a for a baptism of fire. Sure, he drove a buggy at Marco Simeone. But that was Rome now; this could be more akin to Rome in the days of the Coliseum. I also think that Matthew Fitzpatrick is going to attract the ire of the rowdier patrons. The former US Open champ possesses a dreadful 1-7-0 Ryder Cup record, and the crowd will be sure to remind him at every turn. Sepp Straka won twice on the PGA Tour this year but has suffered a disruptive build-up to his Ryder Cup preparations, missing the BMW PGA Championship due to the premature birth of his child. It would be naïve to think that certain segments of the crowd- especially when inebriated- won’t find some way to use that against him. All in all, this is a well-rounded European side with plenty of confidence and pedigree. They fit the course well but it’s all going to come down to how they handle the intangibles.
Overall
Leaders: Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm
My Players to Watch: Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg
Potential Liabilities: Matt Fitzpatrick and Rasmus Hojgaard
The Verdict
USA to win at 0.7
This should be a fascinating Ryder Cup, with Luke Donald hoping that experience trumps rookie ambition. I personally think that Europe are going to struggle with the Long Island atmosphere. At the risk of belaboring the point- this year’s Ryder Cup is going to break the sound barrier. The support will descend into boorishness from time to time and I would be surprised if we don’t experience a few unsavoury fan incidents. I think that America have the more in-form players, with Scheffler leading the world while the four rookies come in with inspirational late-season form. McIlroy seemed to wave the white flag after claiming this year’s Masters title. Will the Northern Irishman be properly motivated after essentially clocking golf earlier this year? I don’t think that this neutered Bethpage will massively favour one team over the other. I just think that the mental strain of the week will result in a comfortable American victory.
