This year has been a bit of a fall from grace for Russian Diana Shnaider (taking away some decent doubles success). Shnaider blew up during last year’s campaign, winning four titles with her aggressive, effervescent style of play.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Monterrey Open
Club Sonoma, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals- 22nd August
Diana Shnaider (3) 0.85 vs Elise Mertens (5) 0.93
Furthermore, she also brought the bandana kicking and screaming into the 21st century. But she has fallen off a cliff this season, failing to reach a single semifinal all year (she has reached three quarterfinals). She hasn’t won back-to-back matches since Queen’s and will be desperate for some form ahead of New York. Her explosive forehand has been an error-machine, and she will likely need to do some post-season work to address mechanical deficiencies. She did snap a three-match losing streak in her Monterrey opener, seeing off Kamilla Rakhimova 7-6, 6-1. She won nearly 70% of her first-serve points, relegating Rakhimova to just two break-point opportunities. She was particularly severe on Rakhimova’s 2nd delivery, stepping in and winning 54% of her 2nd serve return points. She reached the 4th round of last year’s US Open and could still be a dangerous dark horse in New York.
Elise Mertens has looked in excellent touch this week, dispatching of huge-hitting duo Maria Sakkari and Donna Vekic without dropping a single set. Mertens looked completely at ease in her round of 16 win over Vekic, absorbing the big-hitting Croats groundstrokes and redirecting them with ease. She put insane pressure on Vekic’s wobbly delivery, winning 71% of her 2nd serve return points (benefitting from 11 double faults). The accomplished counterpuncher understands what it takes to redirect raw power (especially if it is coming from a slightly erratic racquet). Mertens has enjoyed a productive, under-the-radar season, winning singles titles in Singapore and Rosmalen. She also won her 5th career Grand Slam title, partnering Veronika Kudermetova to this year’s Wimbledon doubles crown.
The Verdict: Mertens to win in straight sets at 1.95- Mertens leads the head-to-head 2-1. However, Shnaider won their most recent meeting, easing past the Belgian 6-2, 6-3 at this year’s Italian Open. Mertens has already claimed back-to-back wins against mercurial power-hitters. She looks well poised to absorb Shnaider’s booming forehands and redirect them with interest.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (2) vs Linda Noskova (6)
This has the potential to be an enthralling tie. 2nd seeded Russian Ekaterina Alexandrova has enjoyed an extremely consistent season, rising to a career-high ranking of 14th courtesy of her 4th round run at the recent Cincinnati Open. She had to work hard in her Monterrey opener, eventually seeing off Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4, 6-3. She was somewhat erratic on serve but always came up with the big shot when she needed it. The Russian has enjoyed an excellent year, aiming to reach her 6th semifinal of the season with victory over Noskova. She won her lone title of the season in Linz and has also played some steady tennis at the highest level, making back-to-back Grand Slam 4th round appearances in Paris and London. Alexandrova plays a brand of in-your-face, first-strike tennis, looking to serve big and create opportunities for her forehand. But she has learned to be more flexible in certain situations, playing more controlled tennis to mitigate the unforced errors count.
Defending champion Linda Noskova extended her Monterrey winning streak to six matches with a comfortable 6-3, 6-2 win over the notoriously tricksy Tatjana Maria. The aggressive Czech just had too much power from the back of the court, flattening out her groundstrokes to overwhelm the more measured German. Noskova once again served like a beast, landing 80% of her first serves and winning 76% of the points behind (she served eight aces in the process). The Czech really came to everyone’s attention at last year’s Aussie Open, coming from a set down to dump Swiatek out of the slam (she would go on to reach the quarterfinals). She would then obviously lift this title towards the end of the season. She has been erratic this year but there have been fleeting moments of brilliance. She enjoyed a strong Middle East hardcourt swing, reaching the semifinals in Abu Dhabi and the quarters in Dubai. She came to life either side of Wimbledon, going 12-4 from Nottingham to Prague (where she finished runner-up). She flopped in Montreal and Cincy but appears to have rediscovered her mojo on her favourite courts (she hasn’t lost a set in her six-match unbeaten streak).
The Verdict: Noskova to win in straight sets at – This will be their first career meeting. Alexandrova will go into this as a firm favourite after what has been a terrific campaign. I just can’t look away from Noskova’s incredible return in this event. She hasn’t dropped a set in her last six Monterrey matches and has served terrifically this week. Alexandrova was a bit scrappy against Aussie Tomljanovic and Noskova could exploit that.
