This promises to be a fascinating Cincinnati final, with a resurgent Iga Swiatek aiming to claim an 11th WTA 1000 crown as she comes up against two-time Grand Slam runner-up Jasmine Paolini.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Cincinnati Open
Linder Family Tennis Centre (Outdoor Hardcourt), Cincinnati, Ohio
Ladies Final- 18th August
Iga Swiatek (3) vs Jasmine Paolini (7)
Reigning Wimbledon champ Iga Swiatek appears to have rediscovered her self-belief in crux situations, playing with a level of freedom that was sorely lacking in the early portion of the season. Paolini has been a slight surprise package this week, taking down US Open contender Coco Gauff en route to her 3rd career WTA 1000 final. Can she seriously upset the apple cart ahead of the year’s final slam?
Iga Swiatek
What a few months this has been for former World No.1 Iga Swiatek. The Pole lost her aura of invincibility in late 2024 and early 2025, failing to reach a WTA final in a 12-month span (uncharted territory for such a serial winner). However, I think some of the stories of her downfall were a tad exaggerated, as she was still reaching semifinals with regularity. Swiatek- along with coach Wim Fisette- have done amazing work these past few months, shoring up her serve while addressing her movement on quicker surfaces. And it has paid remarkable dividends, as Swiatek beat Rybakina 7-5, 6-3 to reach her 3rd final in her last four tournaments. She reached the final in Bad Homburg before unexpectedly capturing a maiden Wimbledon title. She lost to an inspired Mboko in Montreal but has looked at her imperious best in Cincinnati, progressing to her first WTA 1000 final in 15 months with that win over the dangerous Elena Rybakina.
Swiatek has been incredible on serve in Cincy, winning about 78% of her first-serve points going into the semifinal clash with Rybakina. She actually improved on that in the final-four clash, winning 82% of her first-serve points in a dominant display. She had some trouble in the first set, trailing Rybakina 5-3 after a series of gruelling rallies. But Swiatek found another gear, winning ten of the last 13 games to reach her maiden Cincinnati final (the Canadian and Wuhan Opens are the only active WTA 1000 events in which she hasn’t reached a final). Swiatek has been knocking on the door in Cincy these past few years, bowing out at the semifinal stage in each of the last two seasons. With her win over Rybakina, Swiatek has guaranteed a spot at the season-ending WTA Finals in Riyadh. She will be hugely motivated for this match, as victory would guarantee she returns to No.2 in the world rankings.
Jasmine Paolini
Italian dynamo Jasmie Paolini had more trouble qualifying for her maiden Cincinnati final, coming back from a mini collapse in the 2nd set to see off hard-hitting Russian Veronika Kudermetova 6-3, 6-7, 6-3. Paolini dominated the early stages of the match, winning the first set before serving at 5-4 up in the 2nd. But what looked set to be a routine win transformed into a grind, as she started spraying errors with the match in her hands. She was broken back and would go on to lose the resultant tiebreak. Paolini showed plenty of gumption to turn things around in the 3rd set, playing some of her best tennis as she booked her place in a 3rd career WTA 1000 final (she won Dubai last season before claiming this year’s Rome title). This was not the first time that she was made to struggle in Cincy, as she had to come back from a set down against huge crowd favourite Coco Gauff. So, she has spent significantly more time on court than Swiatek this fortnight (Swiatek is yet to drop a set while her round of 32 clash with Kostyuk was cancelled).
Armed with a booming forehand and mountains of creativity, I have been a little surprised with Paolini’s Cincinnati run. She never thrived in the early hardcourt portion of the season, failing to reach a quarterfinal in her first four events. She burst into life with a semifinal run in Miami and she would go on to enjoy a brilliant clay-court swing. But she was shockingly dumped out of Wimbledon in the 2nd round by Rakhimova. Things got even worse in Montreal, where she suffered an embarrassing opening defeat to Aio Ito. Her serve has looked ropey these past few months and I just thought she would struggle on these quick surfaces. But she has served solidly in this tournament and appears to be hitting form at just the right time. However, she is going to need to overcome a significant head-to-head disparity if she wishes to usurp the Pole.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets at – Swiatek leads Italian 5-0 in the head-to-head stakes, dropping just one set in that series. She thrashed Paolini in their most recent meeting, easing past her 6-1, 6-3 in this year’s Bad Homburg semifinals. And I think that trend is likely to continue. Swiatek has been serving with remarkable precision this fortnight and I think that will be key. Paolini has had some ebbs and flows and you can’t really afford that against Swiatek (especially in this mood). Paolini has spent much more time on court and could run out of energy if Swiatek starts in characteristically sharp fashion. Perhaps Swiatek to win in under 20.5 games at 0.87 is a solid option.
