The first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs did not disappoint, with the ever-popular Justin Rose emerging victorious after outlasting J.J. Spaun in an exhilarating playoff.
2025 US PGA Tour
FedEx Cup Playoffs
BMW Championship
Caves Valley Golf Club, Owings Mills, Maryland
14th-17th August
There were many twists and turns on Sunday, with Tommy Fleetwood cementing his status as the greatest player to never win a US PGA Tour title. He missed out on a playoff by one stroke, increasing his career PGA Tour earnings to over 32 million dollars (without a win). Scottie Scheffler looked inevitable, surging into contention before uncharacteristically faltering down the final stretch. Justin Rose then produced some magic, making four birdies in the last five holes to force a playoff with J.J. Spaun. The two traded blows for three holes until Spaun finally blinked, handing Rose his first title in more than two years. Incidentally, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood both secured their Ryder Cup berths with their performances last week. The tour now moves swiftly on to the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs: the BMW Championship.
This week’s BMW Championship will be the 2nd and penultimate leg of the US PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. It was originally introduced in 2007 as the 3rd leg of the original FedEx Cup Playoff series (replacing the old Western Open). The format of the series changed in 2019, with the PGA Tour wisely shortening the Playoffs to three events (it did feel exhausting to play four post-season events after a gruelling regular season). The PGA Tour made further changes in 2023, with only the top 50 earning the right to tee it up at this penultimate event (another inspired decision). You don’t really want the 67th ranked player fluking a win and putting himself in the position to win a FedEx Cup. The top 50 battling it out for a chance at East Lake feels more appropriate. This is a nomadic event, and we find ourselves in Maryland this year, as Caves Valley Golf Club prepares to host this event for the 2nd time. It devolved into a scoring extravaganza last time out, with Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau finishing the 72-holes on a score of 27-under-par. The players will be in for a rude awakening if they think they are encountering the same course this year.
Caves Valley Golf Club was designed by Tom Fazio and opened for business in 1991. The parkland style course is visually dramatic, with rolling terrain and dramatic vistas. However, soft, windless conditions turned the 2021 edition into little more than a mid-season birdie-fest. Organizers have revamped the test, converting it from a par 72 to a par 70 (two of the par 5’s have been turned into demanding par 4’s). Some of the other holes have been significantly lengthened and this beast now measures over 7,600 yards from the tips. Furthermore, the club has installed PrecisionAire subsurface systems ahead of this year’s event, meaning that the greens should play firmer and more consistently. With little to go on statistically and with the course recently renovated, I would put on an onus on Driving Distance and approach play. The fairways are forgiving, and the bombers should thrive. The firmer greens will also put more of an emphasis on strong approach play. The cream of the crop usually rises to the top in this event, with seven of the last ten winners featuring prominently in the betting markets (Bradley was a leftfield champion last season).
Scottie Scheffler will go in as obvious favourite after picking up a 12th straight top-eight finish at TPC Southwind. Scheffler’s exceptional tee-to-green game should make him an ideal candidate for success this week. Rory McIlroy returns to action after electing to skip last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. He has thrived at this event in the past, finishing in the top 12 in each of the last five seasons. Xander Schauffele currently sits 43rd in the FedEx Cup standings and will need to jump 13 places if he wishes to qualify for East Lake. Patrick Cantlay picked up a first top-10 finish since May and will be the defending course champion (though this year’s edition looks significantly different to the 2021 renewal). Tommy Fleetwood will look to bounce back after another painful near-miss while the likes of Rose and Spaun will look to capitalize on their late-season form.
Past Winners
2024: Keegan Bradley (-12)
2023: Viktor Hovland (-17)
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14)
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) *playoff (at Caves Valley Golf Club)
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) *playoff
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (5/2), Rory McIlroy (13/2), Xander Schauffele (18/1), Patrick Cantlay (20/1), Tommy Fleetwood (20/1)
Value Bets
Kurt Kitayama- To Win (40/1)
The winner of this event usually comes in with plenty of momentum behind them and Kurt Kitayama fits firmly in that category. Kitayama won his 2nd career title in Minnesota last month and arrives fresh off a T9 finish at TPC Southwind. He was excellent in Memphis, gaining strokes off the tee for the 5th straight event. More importantly, he has now gained strokes with the putter for three events in a row. He should feel comfortable with the length this week, ranking in the top ten on tour for Driving Distance and SG: Off-the-Tee.
Chris Gotterup- To Win (40/1)
Chris Gotterup has been a breakout star in this latter portion of the PGA Tour season, collecting three top-ten finishes in his last four starts. He won a 2nd PGA Tour title at Renaissance before a 3rd place finish at Royal Portrush. He picked up another top-ten at the 3M Open before finishing down the table at TPC Southwind. He has risen 131 places in the world rankings during this surge, climbing to 27th in the world. Gotterup currently ranks 2nd on tour for Driving Distance and 11th for SG: Around the Green, making him a solid candidate for success this week.
The Man to Beat- Ludvig Aberg- To Win (22/1)
With two top 10’s on his last three appearances, Ludvig Aberg seems to be trending towards a 3rd PGA Tour title. The Swede shot three rounds in the 60’s last week, ultimately settling for a tie for 9th. He has only played this event once before, finishing runner-up to Bradley last year (albeit at a different type of course). The big-hitting Swede should thrive on this layout (especially since it has been converted into an imposing 7,600-yard par-70). Aberg will be a shoe-in for one of Donald’s Ryder Cup picks, but victory here will leave nothing to chance.
