This promises to be an enthralling clash between two power hitters. Andrey Rublev survived a tricky opening Cincinnati encounter, holding off industrious American Learner Tien 7-6, 6-3.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Cincinnati Open
Linder Family Tennis Centre (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 12th August
Andrey Rublev (9) 0.57 vs Alexei Popyrin (21) 1.37
Rublev was solid on serve, winning 85% of his first-serve points. He simply had too much power for Tien in the extended baseline exchanges, hitting 27 winners to the American’s 13. This has been a year of considerable frustration for Rublev. Sure, he won in Doha and managed a runner-up finish in Hamburg. But he has flattered to deceive in the elite events (it’s as if all that Grand Slam heartbreak has started to overwhelm him). But he has found a semblance of form in the post-Wimbledon hardcourt transition, reaching the semifinals in Los Cabos before a solid quarterfinal run in Toronto. Rublev’s high-octane game has thrived here in the past: he finished runner-up in 2021. However, his next challenge will be to take down the man who beat him in last year’s Montreal final: Alexei Popyrin.
2024 Canadian Masters champ Alexei Popyrin won his Cincinnati opener with exactly the same scoreline as Rublev, seeing off Spaniard Martin Landaluce 7-6, 6-3. Popyrin wasn’t at his fluid best in the match, coughing up seven double faults to go with his 15 aces. But he still managed to dominate the extended rallies, ended the match with 31 winners to 27 unforced errors. Popyrin endured a rocky start to the campaign but found some consistency- oddly enough- on clay, reaching the Monte-Carlo and Geneva quarterfinals. A 4th round run at Roland Garros was the cherry on top in what was a surprisingly fruitful clay-court swing. He never got much change on grass but suddenly looked back to his best in Toronto, defeating the likes of Medvedev and Rune before going down in a tight three-setter to Alex Zverev. He also has some nice muscle-memory in this event, reaching his maiden Masters 1000 quarterfinal here back in 2023.
The Verdict: Rublev to win in straight sets at 1.38- Popyrin leads the head-to-head 2-1, thrashing the Russian 6-2, 6-4 at last year’s Montreal Masters final. Rublev will be looking for some redemption following last year’s shock Montreal defeat. I think Rublev’s ultra-aggressive approach will see him through on these quick Cincinnati surfaces. Popyrin has been too up-and-down this campaign, while Rublev appears to have turned into something resembling his best form.
Jiri Lehecka (22) 0.25 vs Adam Walton 2.8
Jiri Lehecka has had a weird season. I think you can trace his inconsistency back to the back injury he sustained at last year’s Madrid Open. In any event, he started the season in encouraging fashion, going 11-4 in his first four events, winning his 2nd career title in Brisbane. He bombed at the ‘Sunshine Double’ and had a torrid time on clay. But he then reached the biggest final of his career, going down to Alcaraz in his maiden ATP 500 final at Queen’s. He has been a bit unfortunate since the tour reverted back to hardcourts, going down to eventual champ de Minaur in Washington before losing to Fritz in Toronto (both matches went deep into the 3rd set). Lehecka looked rusty in the early stages of his Cincinnati opener, dropping the first set against 24-year-old American Tristan Boyer. The big-serving Czech looked laboured in the uncomfortably warm conditions, hitting 15 unforced errors in the first set alone. He rallied well, committing 18 unforced errors in the remaining two sets. He generally served quite well, winning 87% of his first-serve points. Lehecka will be desperate for a deep Masters run as he edges his way to the top 20 for the first time in his career.
26-year-old Aussie Adam Walton just pulled off one of the biggest surprises of the season, coming back from a set down to see off former World No.1 Daniil Medvedev 6-7, 6-4, 6-1. It really looked like it was going to be one-way traffic after Medvedev won the first-set tiebreak 7-0. But Walton hung in there, using his brilliant defensive skill to run Medvedev ragged in sweltering conditions (compatriot de Minaur would have been proud). To be fair, Medvedev almost went into shutdown mode in that final set. Still, Walton did what he had to do, hitting eight winners to just three unforced errors in the decider. Walton was particularly severe on Medvedev’s 2nd delivery, winning 67% of his 2nd serve return points. Walton started the season well, winning a Challenger in Brisbane. He went into hibernation after that but has suddenly come into his own during this hardcourt swing, reaching the semifinals in Los Cabos before falling to Zverev in Toronto. Walton is a fanatical worker who makes up for his lack of raw power with brilliant tenacity and solid technique at the net. The Aussie is used to mind-numbingly hot conditions and has to be respected this fortnight.
The Verdict: Lehecka to win in three at 2.6- Lehecka leads the head-to-head 1-0, thrashing the Aussie in Adelaide last year. Walton is in a mini purple patch and will thrive in these challenging conditions. I think he could push Lehecka- who has been very inconsistent of late- to three sets. However, Lehecka’s greater firepower should be enough to get the job done.
