There is a sense of grim inevitability about World No.1 Jannik Sinner. He resigned Andrey Rublev to more Grand Slam heartbreak in their round of 16 clash, demoralizing him from the back of the court to win 6-1, 6-3, 6-4.
2025 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarterfinals- 4th June
Jannik Sinner (1) vs Alexander Bublik
He redirected Rublev’s power expertly and punished anything remotely short, hitting 26 winners to just 18 unforced errors. He was particularly brutal on Rublev’s 2nd delivery, winning an insane 71% of his 2nd serve return points. Sinner has looked completely unphased since returning from his three-month doping suspension, finishing runner-up in Rome before reaching the quarters here in dominant fashion. In fact, Sinner has only dropped an average of 7.5 games per match this fortnight! He has extended his current Grand Slam winning streak to 18 matches, tying him with Agassi, Wilander and Becker for the 9th longest winning streak in the Open Era. He will be a mammoth favourite to make it back-to-back Roland Garros semifinals as he comes up against Kazakh surprise package Alexander Bublik.
I know that Lois Boisson is currently the headline Cinderella act at this year’s French Open (she was ranked 361st coming into this tournament). To me, Alexander Bublik’s performance has been even more surprising. Boisson is a natural clay-court fit and is realizing her potential after struggling with injury. The 27-year-old Bublik is terribly suited to clay, relying on a brand of flat-hitting, first-strike tennis. He has never reached a clay-court final in his career and has often been accused of possessing a lazy approach to training (not a recipe for success on clay). But he has completely defied expectations this fortnight, beating two top ten players- de Minaur and Draper- en route to his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance. There were glimmers of clay-court life this season (he reached the 4th round in Madrid before winning a Challenger in Turin). But who could have foreseen his improbable comeback against ‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur? He was sensational against Draper, winning 81% of his first-serve points while hitting an astonishing 68 winners. He has played some fearless tennis this fortnight and will need to continue going for broke as he comes up against Sinner’s awe-inspiring consistency.
The Verdict: Sinner to win in four at 2.45– Sinner leads the head-to-head 3-1. Having said that, Bublik won their most recent meeting at the 2023 Halle Open (this will be their first clay-court meeting). Look, Sinner is going to win this match. He is superior in every respect and looks almost unbeatable at present. I do think there is some value in opting for Bublik to pinch a set. His disruptive style might be enough to discombobulate Sinner in a single set.
