With Rafa Nadal in his prime, this used to be my least favourite article to write. It essentially forced me to go into Agatha Christie mode, inserting red herrings and twists when we all knew what was coming.
2025 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Men’s French Open Championships
Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France (Outdoor Clay)
25th May- 8th June
With Rafa Nadal in his prime, this used to be my least favourite article to write. It essentially forced me to go into Agatha Christie mode, inserting red herrings and twists when we all knew what was coming. As I have said before, you could argue that no sportsperson (man or woman) has ever dominated a sporting event like Nadal did the French Open. This will be the first French Open since Rafa’s retirement and there are plenty of intriguing subplots to explore. World No.1 Jannik Sinner has been cast as the de facto villain for this year’s event. Many people feel that his three-month doping suspension amounted to little more than a slap on the wrist (a feeling only exacerbated by that fact that he managed to retain his No.1 ranking in absentia). World No.2 Carlos Alcaraz feels like tennis’ avenging angel, ending Jannik Sinner’s 26-match winning streak in emphatic style at the recent Italian Open. I feel like that result did wonders for the overall hype of this event, with Sinner finally shedding that T-1000 aura of invincibility (which isn’t a great look when there is a doping cloud hanging over you).
Novak Djokovic will once again be aiming to exceed Margaret Court’s record tally of 24 Grand Slam titles (though the Serb has certainly felt the inevitable passage of time these last 18 months or so). The last remaining member of the legendary ‘Big Three’ will look to gatecrash the younglings party this year (despite poor recent form). Djokovic is a Grand Slam titan who will undoubtedly elevate his performance this coming fortnight? Alex Zverev will be looking for some retribution after a controversial line call obliterated his chances in last year’s final. Zverev has since suffered more Grand Slam heartbreak, losing in straight sets to Sinner in this year’s Aussie Open final. It just feels like time is running out for Zverev to claim that long-awaited maiden Slam. Elsewhere, the likes of Casper Rudd and Lorenzo Musetti will look to cash in on successful clay-court campaigns. This promises to be an exciting two weeks, far removed from the paint-by-numbers predictability of the Rafa era.
Past Champions
2024: Carlos Alcaraz bt Alex Zverev (6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2)
2023: Novak Djokovic bt Casper Rudd (7-6, 6-3, 7-5)
2022: Rafa Nadal bt Casper Rudd (6-3, 6-3, 6-0)
2021: Novak Djokovic bt Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4)
2020: Rafa Nadal bt Novak Djokovic (6-0, 6-2, 7-5)
2019: Rafa Nadal by Dominic Thiem (6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1)
Clay-court precursors this season (not including Golden Swing)US Men’s Clay Court Championships: Jenson Brooksby bt Frances Tiafoe (6-4, 6-2)
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luciano Darderi bt Tallon Griekspoor (7-6, 7-6)
Romanian Open: Flavio Cobolli bt Sebastian Baez (6-4, 6-4)
Monte-Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz bt Lorenzo Musetti (3-6, 6-1, 6-0)
Barcelona Open: Holger Rune bt Carlos Alcaraz (7-6, 6-2)
Bavarian International Tennis Championships: Alex Zverev bt Ben Shelton (6-2, 6-4)
Madrid Open: Casper Rudd bt Jack Draper (7-5, 3-6, 6-4)
Italian Open: Carlos Alcaraz bt Jannik Sinner (7-6, 6-1)
Geneva Open and Lyon Open: in progress
The Big Three- Jannik Sinner (1), Carlos Alcaraz (2) and Novak Djokovic (6)
Top seed Jannik Sinner didn’t look too shabby in Rome, scarcely missing a beat despite missing three months of competitive action. The Italian was also suffering with blisters and a mild hamstring strain. He destroyed Casper Rudd in the quarterfinals and would ultimately fall to Alcaraz in the final. I think that defeat may make his Paris fortnight a little easier. As I alluded to earlier, Sinner’s recent dominance of the sport has been tainted by that doping ban. I think another tournament win would have turned him into a cartoon villain. As it stands, he is probably still going to receive some derision, I just don’t think it will be as all-encompassing. Sinner has obviously dominated hardcourt tennis for the past 18 months, but he is still learning his trade on the natural surfaces. Lest we forget, Sinner has only won one clay-court title in his career (the 2022 Croatia Open). I think it may be a step too far to assume he is going to just conquer everyone on this surface (especially with ring-rust to consider).
If Sinner is the king of the artificial terrain, Carlos Alcaraz is the undoubted king of the natural surfaces. The crowned prince of clay, Alcaraz looks like the most likely natural successor to Rafa’s dominance. The reigning French Open and Wimbledon champ has enjoyed an excellent clay-court campaign, winning titles in Monte-Carlo and Rome (which probably correlate best with Roland Garros). He hasn’t been perfect this year, battling illness and injury over the past few months. But he seems to be finding his best form at just the right moment. Outside of the whole doping saga, Alcaraz is just an easier player for fans to warm to. He has natural charisma and plays with maverick spontaneity. Sinner is somewhat robotic, going about his business with the passionless efficiency of a stormtrooper.
Novak Djokovic is a bit of an enigma this year. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has struggled this season, with a 12-7 record going into this week’s Geneva Open (he is on a three-match losing streak). He has suffered four first-round exits this year and has reached only one final (losing to Mensik in Miami). Still, he produced his best tennis at Grand Slam level, forced to retire after losing the first set of his Aussie Open semifinal with Zverev. The three-time French Open champion showed that he still has what it takes to compete here last season, defying all the young NextGen starts to claim Olympic Gold on the Paris dirt. Djokovic is in a bit of surreal position, going into this event as a genuine underdog. I just think his Grand Slam experience gives him a real chance of upsetting the status quo (like when Tiger won at Augusta in 2019).
My Top Ten Picks- Lorenzo Musetti (8) and Holger Rune (10)
I think I’m willing to pass on Zverev this year. He hasn’t looked the same player since that Aussie Open final defeat (despite capturing that clay-court title in Munich). He has failed to go beyond the quarterfinal in a single Masters 1000 event. I just think there’s too much baggage there. Taylor Fritz hasn’t built on his excellent end to the 2024 campaign, failing to reach a single final this season. He has never gone beyond the 4th round here and only has one clay-court final to his name. Jack Draper has generated plenty of heat, reaching the Madrid final before a quarterfinal run in Rome. I think he may struggle (both mentally and physically) to withstand the vagaries of this two-week clay-court test. Casper Rudd is obviously always going to be a factor on these surfaces. The two-time French Open finalist won in Madrid but was embarrassed by Sinner in the Rome quarterfinals. He was philosophical in defeat, claiming that he had to admire Sinner. Still, that type of defeat could lead to self-doubt and scar tissue. He could surprise me, but I just think there’s too many other better options at play this fortnight. Lastly, I think Alex de Minaur will do well to just keep his current Grand Slam quarterfinal streak alive.
My first pick from the other top ten players must be Lorenzo Musetti. The Italian has turned into one of the top five clay-court players in the world, going 13-3 during this year’s European clay-court swing. He reached a maiden Masters 1000 final in Monte-Carlo before back-to-back semifinals in Madrid and Rome. I also like the fact that the versatile Italian is opting to skip this week’s action. He played brilliantly on these courts last year, earning the Bronze Medal at the Paris Olympics. His semifinal run at last year’s Wimbledon Championships showed that he has the durability to mount a deep Grand Slam run. Musetti is a purist’s dream, mixing contemporary baseline brutalism with some old-school slice and trickery (he really loves that drop-shot). In fact, he executed a remarkable 20 drop-shots in his Rome quarterfinal victory over Zverev.
My other pick is Holger Rune. The temperamental Dane is a two-time French Open quarterfinalist, and I’m convinced that he will eventually lift this title. He has had several issues over the years- some within his control, some outside of it. He has been accused of being a bit of prima donna, hiring and firing coaches with the gleeful petulance of a certain American president. He has also suffered some injury setbacks (he recently withdrew from Madrid due to a thigh issue). But he possesses a special quality that can destabilize the top guys (he made his name with a Paris Masters final victory over Djokovic). He also managed to nick a set off Sinner at this year’s Aussie Open. Rune has reached two finals this season, finishing runner-up at Indian Wells before claiming the Barcelona Open title. Over the course of those two events, he beat Alcaraz, Rudd, Medvedev and Tsitsipas (all in straight sets). At his best, he is a top three player. He has played brilliantly on clay in the past, picking up runner-up finishes in Monte-Carlo and Rome.
The Mid-tier Choices (11-20)- Ben Shelton (13) and Francesco Cerundolo (18)
13th seed Ben Shelton may not be a popular mid-tier option (especially on clay). He started the season in unbelievable fashion, reaching his 2nd Grand Slam semifinal in Melbourne. He has underwhelmed in this year’s Masters 1000 events, reaching just one quarterfinal (at Indian Wells). He did show some clay-court nous with a runner-up finish in Munich. He struggled in his last two outings, going 1-2 in back-to-back events in Madrid and Rome (he was humiliated 6-2, 6-1 by Jaume Munar in Rome). But he has one undeniable positive going into this year’s French Open: Grand Slam pedigree. Shelton has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in three slams. He seems to possess the inalienable ability to elevate his performance at Grand Slam level (ala Madison Keys). I can see him performing better than expected this coming fortnight.
Francesco Cerundolo is enjoying an incredible under-the-radar campaign, improving to 27-11 with his recent Hamburg victory over Pedro Martinez. The Argentine clay-court specialist has made significant inroads this season, breaking into the top 20 for the first time in his young career. The strategically astute Argentine has added some real dynamism to his game, resulting in better results outside of clay (he reached back-to-back quarterfinals during the famed ‘Sunshine Double’). But he is still very much a clay-court specialist and has impressed on the dirt this season, reaching the semifinal stage or better in four events. He finished runner-up in Buenos Aires, but the highlight of his season came in Madrid, where he dispatched top seed Alex Zverev en route to a 2nd career Masters semifinal appearance. He reached the 4th round of the French Open in his last two appearances and looks primed for another strong outing.
Longshot Options (20 and higher)- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (26) and Joao Fonesca (unseeded)
Mercurial Spainard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina looks like a nice dark horse option this year. The 26th seed is a former French Open quarterfinalist and Monte-Carlo finalist. He is currently enjoying arguably the most consistent season of his career, improving to 22-11 with a straight-sets victory over Monfils in Hamburg. Yes, Davidovich Fokina has opted to play Hamburg this week in order to stay sharp (a decision made easier by his early Rome exit). Davidovich Fokina reached two hardcourt finals earlier this year and started his European clay-court swing in fine style, reaching the semifinals in Monte-Carlo and the quarters in Barcelona. The Spaniard also showed off some Grand Slam prowess earlier this season, reaching the 4th round of the Aussie Open.
Unseeded Brazilian Joao Fonesca is certainly someone you don’t want to meet in the early stages. The 2024 NextGen Finals champion has enjoyed a meteoric rise this season, winning his maiden title in Buenos Aires to catapult himself up the world rankings. He has also produced some solid results in lower-tier tennis, winning a further two Challenger events. The 18-year-old has endured some physical difficulties this year (which comes with the territory for up-and-coming players). His form has been quite non-descript since Buenos Aires (though he pushed Tommy Paul to two tiebreaks in Madrid). I just think that Fonesca has the type of power-based game that can upset some of the top seeds. Sure, he isn’t going to win this year’s title. But that forehand is a sledgehammer, and I could seem him causing huge problems for some of the seeded guys.
