Daniil Medvedev could do with some inspiration this fortnight (the former US Open champ hasn’t reached a final since last year’s Indian Wells Masters).
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome, Italy (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 9th May
Daniil Medvedev (10) 0.24 vs Cameron Norrie 2.9
It’s not that he has been playing poorly: he has still reached the quarterfinal stage or better in five events this year. He has just lacked the killer instinct in crunch matches. I personally think that his results have suffered because of his insanely deep receiving positions. In any event, he looked quite composed in Madrid before being ousted in the quarters by eventual champ Casper Rudd. Medvedev has worked hard on his clay-court game in recent seasons, winning this title in surprising fashion in 2023 (he hasn’t gone beyond the 4th round in his other four attempts). I can imagine he would be a frustrating guy to play in these conditions. He stands way back in the court, making it extremely hard to penetrate these slow surfaces.
Brit Cameron Norrie made the most of his lucky loser status, blitzing Aussie Christopher O’Connell 6-3, 6-2 in a brilliant display of clay-court tennis. Norrie seemed to have taken that qualifying defeat to Lajovic personally, hitting 21 winners to 12 unforced errors while winning 87% of his first-serve points. I have said this before, but I think the industrious Norrie is feeling the aftereffects of playing too much tennis in recent years. He has struggled this year, with highlights including quarterfinals runs in Hong Kong and Delray Beach. Norrie has proven himself to be an adroit clay-court operator over the years, reaching five ATP finals on the sticky stuff. And you can see why he suits these surfaces so well. He generates huge amounts of topspin on that forehand side, and he tries to chase down everything. At his best, he is a brilliant strategic player who wears down opponents with trademark tenacity. He will be hoping to use that O’Connell victory as a springboard to rediscover his best form.
The Verdict: Medvedev to win in three at 2.65- Medvedev has dominated Norrie in the head-to-head stakes, improving to 3-0 with victory at last year’s Miami Open. This will be their first clay-court meeting. I think this could be closer than many people are anticipating. Norrie is an awkward competitor on clay, using that lefty kick-serve to drag opponents out of position. I think he could nick a set in this match. However, Medvedev’s renowned durability should be able to see him through in three.
