Daria Kasatkina, who recently switched her nationality from Russian to Australian, has endured a tough start to her campaign.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 9th May
Daria Kasatkina (14) 1.1 vs Marta Kostyuk 0.71
She reached an incredible six finals last season but brings a disappointing 9-11 record into this event. Perhaps she is feeling the pinch after last year’s exhausting campaign. A former French Open semifinalist, Kasatkina has an excellent game for clay-court conditions, twice reaching the Charleston final. She isn’t supremely powerful but makes up for that with courtcraft, creating cute little crosscourt angles. She also knows how to shift down a gear on these surfaces, throwing in forehand and backhand slices (and drop-shots). And she has played well on these courts in the past, reaching the semifinals in 2022. She will be hoping that these heavy conditions will give her the opportunity to kickstart what has been a stop-start campaign.
Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk looked in imperious form in her Rome opener, taking down Filipino phenom Alexandre Eala 6-0, 6-1. Kostyuk looked completely at ease in these turgid Rome conditions, using sharp footwork to create opportunities to damage Eala from the back of the court. Kostyuk struggled in the early part of the campaign and plummeted to 35th in the rankings when she was unable to defend her Stuttgart points. But she righted the ship in Madrid, catapulting herself to 26th in the rankings with a highly respectable quarterfinals finish (she lost to Sabalenka in two tight sets). That defeat to Sabalenka probably gave her as much confidence as any victory. She was excellent against the World No.1, absorbing the Belarusian’s power while creating little moments of her own to attack.
The Verdict: Kostyuk to win in straight sets at 1.5- Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 4-2, winning their last four consecutive matches. However, Kostyuk won their only previous clay-court meeting at the 2021 Istanbul Open. I think that Kostyuk could brush off Kasatkina with ease. Kasatkina has looked sub-par this season and Kostyuk looks revitalized since Madrid.
