The tour returns from a two-week hiatus for the latest edition of the resurrected Turkish Airlines Open.
2024/2025 DP World Tour
Turkish Airlines Open
Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort, Antalya, Turkey
8th-11th May
The tour returns from a two-week hiatus for the latest edition of the resurrected Turkish Airlines Open. This event also marks the start of the DP World Tour’s European Swing (Keita Nakajima won the Asian Swing). This event was first played in 2013 and featured for seven successive seasons. In fact, the 2013 and 2014 editions featured as the penultimate events in the now-defunct European Tour Final Series. The event enjoyed a golden period between 2017 and 2019, where it was elevated to Rolex Series status (with Justin Rose winning back-to-back titles on this very course). The event disappeared from the roster in 2020 (obviously affected by the global pandemic). It returns after a five-year absence and will be the last DP World Tour event leading into the US PGA Championship. The event returns to the course that hosted three successive renewals between 2016-2018: Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort.
This Peter Thompson design is a classical layout that draws its inspiration from English heathland tracks (namely Walton Heath and Sunningdale). The course drifts over subtly undulating sand dunes and worms its way through a pine forest (there is heather everywhere). The Bermuda fairways are tree-lined and rather narrow, and water is in play on eight holes. However, the rough around this resort course is fairly tame while the greens are large and fairly easy to access. They are, however, quite quick and feature multiple plateaus, meaning approach shots need to find the correct portion of the greens to create credible birdie opportunities. Rose hit more greens in regulation than anyone when he won in 2016- that stat has proven to be a great bellwether for success here. However, the short-game could be where this tournament is won or lost. These greens are complex and players need to avoid those pesky three-putts.
This is a fairly standard European field, with many of the elite European players focused on next week’s US PGA Championship. Haotong Li has enjoyed a renaissance this year, winning in Qatar and picking up some much-needed consistency. He currently leads the markets ahead of the likes of Jordan Smith and Wenyi Ding. Jordan Smith currently sits 19th in Ryder Cup qualification and could do with a great week to bolster his outside chances of qualification. Sam Bairstow has been in fine form while Marco Penge won last time out at the Hainan Classic. Elsewhere, European stalwarts such as Adrian Otaegui and Joost Luiten will sense an opportunity in this relatively weak field.
Past Winners
2020-2024: no event
2019: Tyrell Hatton (-20) *playoff
2018: Justin Rose (-17) *playoff
2017: Justin Rose (-18)
2016: Thorbjorn Olesen (-20)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Haotong Li (14/1), Jordan Smith (16/1), Wenyi Ding (20/1), Matthew Jordan (25/1), Sam Bairstow (25/1)
Value Bets
Adrian Otaegui- To Win (40/1)
I think that Adrian Otaegui looks like magnificent value at 40/1. One of the straightest drivers on tour, Otaegui should thrive on this tree-lined test. A former Valderrama champ, Otaegui knows how to get the job done on tree-lined tests (thought this isn’t anywhere near as claustrophobic as that sadistic Spanish layout). He finished 3rd here the last time the tour visited in 2018. The five-time DP World Tour winner won the most recent of his titles at last May’s China Open. He started this year poorly but seems to have turned the corner, finishing 26th at the China Open prior to a 11th place finish at the Hainan Classic.
Yannick Paul- To Win (66/1)
Yannick Paul almost won the Open de France in October but went through a torrid time after that, failing to register a top 30 finish until the recent China Open (where he finished 3rd behind Ashun Wu). On his day, Paul is one of the best iron players in this field. He was 9th for SG: Approach in China and I think his consistency will return as his approach-play improves. He has only appeared once since that podium finish in China, narrowly missing the cut at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (where he was playing alongside his twin brother Jeremy).
The Man to Beat- Haotong Li- To Win (14/1)
I think that market favourite Haotong Li will have benefitted from the one-week break. Li currently sits 8th in the Race to Dubai rankings, having won the Qatar Masters in February. He continued to play excellent golf after that, with form figures of 41-16-9-4 in his subsequent four events. He underwhelmed in his last outing, finishing 51st at the Hainan Classic. But perhaps it was too much to expect him to perform a week after contending in his home open. I just think that Li should be a perfect fit for this course. The Chinese star currently ranks 2nd for SG: Approach and that should stand him in good stead this week.
