6th seed Alex de Minaur will face in-form Lorenzo Musetti in this tantalizing round of 16 clash (a rematch of this year’s Monte-Carlo semifinals).
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Mutua Madrid Open
Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 30th April
Alex de Minaur (6) 0.72 vs Lorenzo Musetti (10) 1.08
6th seed Alex de Minaur will face in-form Lorenzo Musetti in this tantalizing round of 16 clash (a rematch of this year’s Monte-Carlo semifinals). ‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur has risen rapidly up the rankings these past few seasons, reaching the quarterfinals in his last four successive slams (he is yet to get past that Andrey Rublev-sized hurdle). He has enjoyed a solid year, reaching the Aussie Open quarters before a runner-up finish at Rotterdam. He then had an excellent start to his clay-court campaign, reaching the semifinals in Monte-Carlo before a quarterfinal run in Barcelona. He has looked comfortable in Madrid, improving his 2025 clay-court record to 7-2 with straight-sets wins over Shapovalov and Sonego. He was impressive against Shapovalov last time out, absorbing the Canadian’s pace and redirecting it superbly. Yet to reach a clay-court final in his career, de Minaur is slowly starting to look more impressive on the sticky stuff. He is one of the best movers on tour and is starting to take a bit more initiative in rallies (he isn’t just sitting back and counterpunching).
Lorenzo Musetti produced a stunning display in his round of 32 clash, beating clay-court specialist Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets to improve to seven wins in his last eight matches. Musetti was exemplary from the back of the court, using all his guile and nuance to hit 22 winners to 20 unforced errors. Musetti broke through with a few stunning results in 2024, reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon and securing the bronze medal at the Olympic Games. He started this season in disappointing fashion, struggling with a variety of injuries (from calf to thigh). But he has looked back to his best on clay, reaching a maiden Masters 1000 final at the Monte-Carlo Masters (where a reoccurrence of his thigh issue helped Alcaraz cruise to a 6-0 win in the decisive set). Musetti pulled out of Barcelona and has looked unperturbed in Madrid, picking up back-to-back straight-sets wins over Etcheverry and Tsitsipas. Musetti is a throwback to a different age, using an array of slices and off-speed shots to complement his aggressive baseline play.
The Verdict: De Minaur to win in straight sets at 1.65- Musetti leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning their last two successive matches. He pipped de Minaur in a stunning Monte-Carlo semifinal, coming from a set down to outlast the indefatigable Aussie. I think that the Aussie has a chance of getting some revenge this week. These courts are significantly quicker than Monte-Carlo and De Minaur should be able to counterpunch effectively. Also, Musetti does still have some lingering injury issues.
